Short-term Hourly Traffic Forecasts using Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census

The need for acquiring the current-year traffic data is a problem for transport planners since such data may not be available for on-going transport studies. A method is proposed in this paper to predict hourly traffic flows up to and into the near future, using historical data collected from the Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census (ATC). Two parametric and two non-parametric models have been employed and evaluated in this study. The results show that the non-parametric models (Non-Parametric Regression (NPR) and Gaussian Maximum Likelihood (GML)) were more promising for predicting hourly traffic flows at the selected ATC station. Further analysis encompassing 87 ATC stations revealed that the NPR is likely to react to unexpected changes more effectively than the GML method, while the GML model performs better under steady traffic flows. Taking into consideration the dynamic nature of the common traffic patterns in Hong Kong and the advantages/disadvantages of the various models, the NPR model is recommended for predicting the hourly traffic flows in that region.     

Demand for rail travel to and from airports

Rail access to airports is becoming increasingly important for both train operators and the airports themselves. This paper reports analysis of inter-urban rail demand to and from Manchester and Stansted Airports and the sensitivity of this market segment to growth in air traffic and the cost and service quality of rail services. The estimated demand parameters vary in an expected manner between outward and inward air travellers as well as between airport users and general rail travellers. These parameters can be entered into the demand forecasting framework widely used in the rail industry in Great Britain to provide an appropriate means of forecasting for this otherwise neglected market segment. The novel features of this research, at least in the British context, are that it provides the first detailed analysis of aggregate rail flows to and from airports, it has disaggregated the traditional generalised time measure of rail service quality in order to estimate separate elasticities to journey time, service headway and interchange, and it has successfully explored departures from the conventional constant elasticity position.     

Information needs of the continuing urban transportation planning process

Urban transportation is identified as a functional element in the broader context of urban facilities and services. From this point of view, the relative merits of separate information systems for transportation planning and general urban planning, as contrasted to unified systems for all urban management functions, are discussed. The overriding need to make the most effective use of urban resources argues strongly for the unification of urban information systems to the greatest possible extent consistent with the special data requirements of various functional programs. The need to identify and correlate data items for very small areal units and to keep current records of the constantly shifting patterns of social and economic activities in urban areas present difficult, but not insurmountable technical problems. However, the most serious barrier to the development and implementation of comprehensive urban information systems is concluded to be institutional, rather than technical, in nature.     

Optimal synthesis of function generation in steering linkages

This paper presents an approach to optimize planar mechanisms for function generation synthesis. It is applied to the design of different steering linkages used in road vehicles where the Ackermann condition is formulated as the objective function. Four different mechanisms are kinematically defined and synthesized in terms of the proposed method. Limitations of the size of the elements are also considered by means of inequality constraints. Solutions are presented as the difference between desired behaviour, established by Ackermann, and actual generated performance. The results show that the accuracy achieved by the proposed procedure is satisfactory for working conditions in this type of linkages.     

Modelling journey‐to‐work fuel consumption: a case study of Bayridge subdivision

Fuel consumption is calculated using a modelling procedure for automobiles travelling on three alternative street patterns designed for a subdivision in Kingston Township, Ontario. The modelling procedure is described. The results indicate that grid and solar superblock street patterns, compared to the existing street pattern, offer small fuel savings to a tripmaker in the portion of the work trip travelled in the subdivision.     

Protecting Rhode Island's coastal salt ponds: An economic assessment of downzoning

Abstract

In southern Rhode Island, there is growing concern that housing and recreational demands will soon overwhelm the capacity of the coastal salt ponds to absorb wastes, produce seafood, and maintain scenic qualities. As a result, coastal towns have been studying the feasibility of using land controls such as downzoning to protect these coastal amenities. The paper presents an economic analysis of the downzoning program proposed in the town of South Kingstown. Hedonic price and contingent valuation methods are used to value coastal amenities. The estimated net present value of “swimmable” water is shown to be $3.1 million.     

Scantling multi-objective optimisation of a LNG carrier

Numerous real-world problems related to ship design can be solved by various alternatives. However, the scantling design has conflicting objectives such as minimum production cost, minimum weight and maximum moment of inertia (stiffness). Therefore a multi-purpose solution had to be settled in order to meet all these requirements at once. Ship design is a complex endeavour requiring successful coordination of many different disciplines, both technical and non-technical. Basic design is the least defined stage of the ship design process and seeks to define the optimal amidships section structure. For that purpose, recent improvements have been made to a numerical tool in order to optimise the scantling of ship sections by considering production cost, weight and moment of inertia in the optimisation objective function. A multi-criteria optimisation of a LNG carrier is conducted in this paper to illustrate the analysis process. Pareto frontiers are obtained and results have been validated by the Bureau Veritas rules. The methodology presented in this paper has demonstrated its effectiveness in optimising scantling of ships at a very early design stage thanks to a management of critical problems usually studied at a later stage of the design.     

Methodology for the accuracy improvement of FEM beam type T-junctions of buses and coaches structures

The analysis of structures with finite elements methods (FEM) represents a widely spread technique. For large tubular structures similar to the buses and coaches upper structures, beam type elements are utilized due to the fact that these elements provide satisfactory results at relatively reduced computational performances. However the beam type elements have a main disadvantage determined by the fact that the modeled joints have an infinite rigid behavior. This shortcoming determines a stiffer behavior of the modeled structures which translates into an error source for the structural simulations (up to 45%). To overcome this problem, a simple methodology was conceived and an alternative optimized equivalent beam model obtained. The methodology studies the behavioral characteristics of beam modeled T-junctions determining their limitations and comparing them to equivalent T-junctions modeled with shell and volume elements. This way an improved Tjunction has been obtained, in which the behavioral error was reduced to less than 5%. Furthermore the FEM obtained results were validated with real T-junctions.