Alternative Modeling Approaches Used for Examining Automobile Ownership: A Comprehensive Review

Abstract

Household vehicle ownership, and the associated dimensions including fleet size, vehicle type and usage, has been one of the most researched transport topics. This paper endeavors to provide a critical overview of the wide-ranging methodological approaches employed in vehicle ownership modeling depending on the ownership representation over the past two decades. The studies in the existing literature based on the vehicle ownership representation are classified as: exogenous static, exogenous dynamic, endogenous static and endogenous dynamic models. The methodological approaches applied range from simple linear regressions to complex econometrics formulations taking into account a rich set of covariates. In spite of the steady advancement and impressive evolution in terms of methodological approaches to examine the decision process, we identify complex issues that pose a formidable challenge to address the evolution of vehicle ownership in the coming years. Specifically, we discuss challenges with data availability and methodological framework selection. In light of these discussions, we provide a decision matrix for aiding researchers/practitioners in determining appropriate model frameworks for conducting vehicle ownership analysis.     

Development of hot stamped center pillar using form die with channel type indirect blank holder

The hot stamping process has been used in the automotive industry to reduce the weight of the body-in-white and to increase passenger safety via improved crashworthiness. However, defects such as fracture and wrinkle occur when hot stamping is performed using a conventional drawing or forming method. In this study, a channel-type indirect blank holder (CIBH) is proposed to develop a high-strength center pillar in form-type hot stamping, so that the aforementioned drawbacks are overcome. This type of blank holder plays an important role in reducing severe wrinkling at the flange; such wrinkling leads to folding after the completion of form-type hot-stamping. First, we investigated the effect of the channel shape on the indirect blank holding force by using a simplified two-dimensional plane-strain stamping process. Second, we selected the slope angle and corner radius of the channel as the main shape parameters by finite element analysis and artificial neural network (ANN). It is known that fracture at the hot formed wall and wrinkle at the flange are significantly affected by the slope angle of the channel, and the appropriate value for eliminating fracture and wrinkle is determined to be 99°. By performing hot stamping using a form die with the selected channel, we can manufacture a high-strength center pillar without wrinkle and fracture.     

Influence of load and inflation pressure on the tyre rolling resistance

Tyre load and inflation pressure are important factors controlling rolling resistance of road vehicles. The article presents results obtained in the Technical University of Gdańsk during laboratory and road measurements of different car tyres rolling on different pavements. The knowledge of rolling resistance characteristics is important for modelling car dynamics as well as fuel consumption. It is also necessary to establish proper test conditions in the future standardized on-road method of measuring rolling resistance. The results indicate that while an increase of load always leads to the increase of rolling resistance force, the influence on Coefficient of Rolling Resistance is more complicated and unpredictable. They also indicate that tyres with high rolling resistance are more sensitive to inflation pressure changes than low rolling resistance tyres.     

Implementation of discharging/charging current sensorless state-of-charge estimator reflecting cell-to-cell variations in lithium-ion series battery packs

This paper offers novel insights to the design and implementation of an innovative state-of-charge (SOC) estimator for the lithium-ion (Li-Ion) series battery pack. The most interesting feature of this approach is that it can utilize information from each filtered terminal voltage of the Li-Ion cells connected in series for SOC estimation of the battery pack. Without actual sensing each discharging/charging current (DCC) applied to the Li-Ion cells, it is possible to extract each DCC estimation from the corresponding filtered terminal voltages with an equivalent electrical circuit model (EECM) identification of all Li-Ion cells in the battery pack. There are two advantages to SOC estimation of the battery pack with this approach. First, the proposal can be implemented simply and effectively, reducing the computational steps required for SOC estimation. By reducing computational steps, the proposal is expected to be more cost-effective. Second, the approach guarantees an improved SOC performance, even if the battery pack results in inevitable cell-to-cell variation among Li-Ion cells. Accordingly, there are fewer differences to previously estimated DCCs among Li-Ion cells. Specifically, all values from the estimated DCCs are properly compensated for by simultaneous parameter modification according to each cell’s electrochemical characteristics. Experimental results clearly demonstrate that our DCC sensorless SOC estimator provides robust SOC performance for the battery pack. This approach considered an experimental battery pack (12S1P) connected in series using 2.6 Ah LiCoO2 cells produced by Samsung SDI.     

Experimental study on a model azimuthing podded propulsor in ice

The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of a model azimuthing podded propulsor in ice-covered water. Model tests were carried out with two different depths of cut into the ice (15 and 35 mm), two different ice conditions (presawn and pack ice conditions), and four different azimuthing angles. The depth of cut is the maximum penetration depth of the propeller blade into the ice block. The 0.3-m-diameter model propeller was operated in a continuous ice milling condition. Ice loads were measured by several sensors which were installed in various positions on the model. Six one-axis pancake-style load cells on the top of the model measured the global loads and two six-component dynamometers were installed on the shaft to measure the shaft loads. One six-component dynamometer was attached to the one of the propeller blades inside the hub to measure the blade loads. The pod unit and propeller performance in ice are presented. Ice-related loads, which were obtained when the blade was inside the ice block, are introduced and discussed. During the propeller–ice interaction, a blade can experience the path generated by the previous blade, which is called the shadowing effect. The effects of shadowing, depth of cut, azimuthing angle, and advance coefficient on propulsor performance are presented and discussed.     

Improving pollutant emissions in diesel engines for heavy-duty transportation using retarded intake valve closing strategies

A combined theoretical and experimental study has been carried out to determine the real potential of reducing pollutant emissions in a HD diesel engine by means of retarding the intake valve closing. The effects produced by this alteration of the basic operation cycle have been examined by a preliminary modelling study, and from the obtained results, a modified camshaft was manufactured with a delayed intake valve closing of 60 crank angle degrees. Single-cylinder engine tests were carried out with this modified camshaft, and the emissions and fuel consumption were recorded. The results showed that the retarded intake valve closing can enhance the premixed combustion phase, and thus simultaneously reduce soot and NOx emissions. Moreover, the combustion process attained is extremely tolerant to exhaust gas recirculation, and by adoption of this measure, Euro-5 emissions limits can be achieved at the tested conditions without after-treatment.     

Trip distribution for limited destinations: a case study for grocery shopping trips in the Netherlands

In this paper, we introduce a new trip distribution model for destinations that are not homogeneously distributed. The model is a gravity model in which the spatial configuration of destinations is incorporated in the modeling process. The performance was tested on a survey with reported grocery shopping trips in the Dutch city of Almelo. The results show that the new model outperforms the traditional gravity model. It is also superior to the intervening opportunities model, because the distribution can be described as a function of travel costs, without increasing the computational time. In this study, the distribution was described by a simple function of Euclidean distance, which provides a good fit to the survey data. The slope of the distribution is quite steep. This shows that most trips are made to nearby supermarkets. However, a significant fraction of trips, mainly made by car, still goes to supermarkets further away. We argue that modeling of these trips by the new method will improve traffic flow predictions.     

Trip generation of vulnerable populations in three Canadian cities: a spatial ordered probit approach

This paper provides an analysis of trip generation of three vulnerable groups: single-parent families, low income households, and the elderly. It compares the mobility of these groups to that of the general population in three Canadian urban areas of Hamilton, Montreal and Toronto, based on data from large-sample metropolitan transport surveys. An ordered probit model with spatially expanded coefficients is used for the analysis. Spatial expansion shows that there are spatial mobility trends for elderly populations and low-income populations even after socio-economic attributes are accounted for. Such spatial differences are not generally found for single parent families. This novel spatial analysis provides clues as to where vulnerable populations may experience greater degrees of social exclusion. It provides information to help prioritize transportation infrastructure projects or other social programs to take into account the needs of vulnerable populations with the lowest levels of mobility.     

Integrated modeling of urban hierarchy and transportation network planning

A major problem addressed during the preparation of spatial development plans relates to the accessibility to facilities where services of general interest such as education, health care, public safety, and justice are offered to the population. In this context, planners typically aim at redefining the level of hierarchy to assign to the urban centers of the region under study (with a class of facilities associated with each level of hierarchy) and redesigning the region’s transportation network. Traditionally, these two subjects – urban hierarchy and transportation network planning – have been addressed separately in the scientific literature. This paper presents an optimization model that simultaneously determines which urban centers and which network links should be promoted to a new level of hierarchy so as to maximize accessibility to all classes of facilities. The possible usefulness of the model for solving real-world problems of integrated urban hierarchy and transportation network planning is illustrated through an application to the Centro Region of Portugal.