Contributions to maritime economics—Zenon S. Zannetos,the theory of oil tankship rates

This paper discusses the importance of Zannetos’ 1966 book for the development of maritime economic thought. The main contributions of the book are recounted, and the empirical work in the book is reviewed.

The analysis of the present paper is a citation research on the maritime economics literature that refers to the book. Of the 42 papers in the set, about one-third refers to the book in general. A total of 35 papers refer to one or more elements of the book, with an equal number of references to: (1) the term structure of freight rates; (2) the empirical findings on the form of the supply curve; and (3) on the verification of his results.

The general conclusion of the citation analysis is that, apparently, a number of elements of his work are still very valid for current maritime economics thinking, while maritime economists have disregarded several other elements. The latter seems unjustified for some of the business structure observations that are made in the book, such as the notion that the ship is the firm, and the elasticity of expectations. The former observation is the basis for virtually all empirical work in maritime economics that is based on individual contract data (all freight rate analysis is of this nature), and the second is the basis for the analysis of investment behaviour in shipping, investigations of cyclicality and so on.

Zannetos can definitely be seen as the initiator of the important field of term structure analysis in maritime economics. In addition to this, there are several topics in the 1966 book that are as yet unexplored, and deserve empirical scrutiny.     

Hub dependence in constrained economies: the case of North Korea

While the geographical and economic factors concerning the development of hub ports are widely described by a variety of scholars and professionals, there is no recognized methodology measuring the hub dependence of a given port, region, or country. Based on a 20-year database of vessel movements, this paper proposes a methodology measuring hub dependence. North Korea offers a good case of a constrained economy facing dramatic internal and external pressures. Notably, the weight and geographical extent of its maritime connections are worth analysing because of its contrasted evolution from Soviet influence, geopolitical isolation, and growing trade due to economic reforms and increased foreign investments. The main results of this study show the spatial shift from long-distance calls to feeder calls: global foreland contraction, regionalization within Northeast Asia, and traffic concentration upon closest hubs of which South Korean ports. We conclude that hub dependence is a combination of local constraints and trade growth. The political implications of this phenomenon are explored, and a spatial model of hub dependence is proposed.     

Manoeuvring and hotelling external costs: enough for alternative energy sources?

Local air pollution is the most relevant externality of maritime transport, and its effects are more acute in urban areas as a result of manoeuvring, hotelling and load/unload activities at ports. This article is intended to assess ships’ local air pollution impact in generally densely populated harbour areas to decide whether alternative power supply measures are feasible. First, an optimized infrastructure investment model is developed to ease implementation and maximize the efficiency of alternative power supply projects. Once target harbours and traffic (ship types) within a national port network have been chosen, a vessel traffic analysis (ship type, tonnage, manoeuvring, and hotelling times) is carried out to quantify and evaluate annual polluting emissions (PM_2,5, SO₂, NOx, and VOCs) and their externalities. Finally, the assessment model is applied and results of the Spanish port network case study are discussed. The results obtained are significant and bring the possibility of further controlling the ship’s environmental performance at berth.     

Monopoly,Subsidies and the Mohring Effect: A Synthesis

Abstract

This paper provides a unifying framework to analyze whether a monopoly transit provider will under or over-supply frequency. To this end we couch the problem in term of Spence [(1975). Monopoly, quality and regulation. The Bell Journal of Economics, 6, 417–429] who analyzed the incentives to provide quality by a monopolist. We show that all of the results of a recent academic exchange discussing this topic are special cases of Spence [(1975). Monopoly, quality and regulation. The Bell Journal of Economics, 6, 417–429], albeit with an adjustment in order to take into account the cost structure of frequency provision in the case of public transport. In theory then, there are cases when a monopolist may offer optimal or above optimal levels of frequency without requiring subsidies. However, public transport is rarely provided by an unregulated monopolist. Rather, these services are usually provided either by an exclusive operator under regulated fares or by a group of competing operators, with or without fare regulation. We show that in the first case frequency will always be below the social optimal level.     

A Review of Ex-Post Evidence for Mode Substitution and Induced Demand Following the Introduction of High-Speed Rail

ABSTRACT

To date, relatively little is known about the nature of the demand for high-speed rail (HSR) soon after inauguration of the services, despite close to 50-year experience of HSR operation and 17 166?km of HSR network around the world. This is a real lacuna given the scale of HSR construction around the world, the amount of resources committed to it, the desired accessibility, economic and environmental effects associated with HSR development and the relatively poor track record of forecasting demand for HSR services. Focusing on mode substitution and induced demand effects, this review aims to fill the gap in knowledge about the ex-post demand for HSR services in order to facilitate a learning process for the planning of the future HSR network. Although there is not much evidence on the demand for HSR services and existing evidence is largely influenced by route-specific characteristics, a methodological limitation that must be acknowledged, the evidence presented allows a better characterisation of HSR as a mode of transport. The review shows that the demand for HSR a few years after inauguration is about 10–20% induced demand and the rest is attributed to mode substitution. In terms of mode substitution, in most cases the majority of HSR passengers have used the conventional rail before. Substitution from aircraft, car and coach is generally more modest.     

Bridging the gap between complex data and decision-makers: an example of an innovative interactive tool

Abstract

The increasing capacity of technological tools, as well as the advent of geographic information systems, has multiplied the ability to process large sets of microdata. At the same time, modeling concerns and the quest for a more in-depth understanding of individual behaviors is requiring more, and better, data. The gap between scientific modeling and informational tools for decision-making seems to be widening.

In the Greater Montreal area, large sets of microdata have been available for more than 30 years. Along with the development of modeling and planning tools, particular attention has been given to the continuous enlightening of planners and decision-makers with respect to the outcomes of the various surveys. This has led to the development of particular interactive tools, specifically addressed at local planners, which present the most significant information regarding travel and demography, for geopolitically relevant areas.

This paper presents the most recent interactive tool that has been developed for local planners in the Montreal area. It integrates information from both the most recent travel survey held in the region and the Canadian census. It offers both ease of use and relevant analytical means to assist in exploring the complex relations between spatial locations, demographic features, and activity-travel indicators.     

Picophytoplankton and nanophytoplankton abundance and distribution in the southeastern Beaufort Sea (Mackenzie Shelf and Amundsen Gulf) during Fall 2002

The distribution of picophytoplankton (0.2–2 µm) and nanophytoplankton (2–20 µm) in the Beaufort Sea–Mackenzie Shelf and Amundsen Gulf regions during autumn, 2002 is examined relative to their ambient water mass properties (salinity, temperature and nutrients: nitrate + nitrite, phosphate, and silicate) and to the ratio of variable to maximum fluorescence, Fv/Fm. Total phytoplankton and cell abundances (< 20 µm) were mainly correlated with salinity. Significant differences in picophytoplankton cell numbers were found among waters near the mouth of the Mackenzie River, ice melt waters and the underlying halocline water masses of Pacific origin. Picophytoplankton was the most abundant phytoplankton fraction during the autumnal season, probably reflecting low nitrate concentrations (surface waters average ~ 0.65 µM). The ratio Fv/Fm averaged 0.44, indicating that cells were still physiologically active, even though their concentrations were low (max Chl a = 0.9 mg m^− 3). No significant differences in Fv/Fm were evident in the different water masses, indicating that rate limiting conditions for photosynthesis and growth were uniform across the whole system, which was in a pre-winter stage, and was probably already experiencing light limitation as a result of shortening day lengths.     

A cooperative waiting strategy based on elliptical areas for the Dynamic Pickup and Delivery Problem with Time Windows

The purpose of this paper to present a cooperative scheduling algorithm for solving the Dynamic Pickup and Delivery Problem with Time Windows (DPDPTW). The idea behind cooperative waiting strategies is to calculate simultaneously the waiting times for all nodes in the solution. Classical non‐cooperative scheduling algorithms perform the scheduling for each route independently of the scheduling of the other routes. We present the Cooperative Scheduling Problem (CSP) based on the elliptical areas generated by vehicles waiting at their nodes. The CSP is solved by means of a genetic algorithm and is evaluated by using a set of benchmarks based on real‐life data found in the literature. Initially, two waiting strategies are presented: Wait‐Early‐Time scheduling and Balanced‐Departure scheduling. Extensive empirical simulations have been carried out by analyzing the degree of dynamism and the average waiting time, a new concept defined to take into account the gap between the time windows of pickup and delivery nodes. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.