Comparison of several traffic forecasting methods based on travel time index data on weekends

Traffic forecasting provides the estimation of future traffic state to help traffic control,travel guide,etc. This paper compared several widely used traffic forecasting methods,and analyzed each one's performance in detail to make conclusions,which could redound to researchers choosing an appropriate traffic forecasting method in their own works. Compared with conventional works,this paper creatively assessed the performance of traffic forecasting methods based on travel time index (TTI) data prediction,wh...     

A reconfigurable stamping die and its stamping process

A reconfigurable flexible poles die was developed. The die can be used to implement the process of “the multi-point pressing and forming sheet”. Sheet metal is restricted by the elastic pressing forces putting on the upper and lower surfaces of sheet in stamping process. The method is an effective way to enhance the buckling critical stresses and reduce wrinkling of sheet. The results of tests indicate that the die can achieve “one die brings multi-purpose” and suppress the wrinkle of sheet. The process of the multi-point pressing and forming sheet provides a practical and effective way for the curved sheet metal forming.     

Predicting the chloride penetration of fly ash concrete in seawater

In this study, a model for predicting chloride penetration in fly ash concrete under long-term exposure in a marine environment is developed. The empirical model was based on 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year investigation of concretes in a marine site. Regression analysis of the data was carried out by applying Fick's second law of diffusion to generate an empirical formula for predicting chloride concentration in concrete. The model uses the water to binder (W/B) ratio, fly ash content, distance from the concrete surface, and exposure time. Model validation revealed that the predicted chloride concentration levels were within a ±25% error margin (R² = 0.91 ? 0.99) in the samples used to develop the model. The model was also verified using data from previous laboratory and field studies. Most predicted chloride concentration levels were within a ±30% margin of error from field samples. The model also predicted the strong effect of fly ash and W/B ratio on reducing chloride diffusion in concrete. Results clearly indicated that a high volume fly ash replacement (up to 50% by weight of binder) and a low W/B ratio will yield good chloride resistance in concrete under long-term exposure in a marine environment.     

An experimental analysis of intelligibility and efficiency of in-vehicle route guidance system displays

This study focuses on the user-interface of the route guidance system with an electronic map display. The ultimate goal of the study is to aid in designing electronic map displays that can deliver information to the user most efficiently and expeditiously with minimum confusion. To evaluate the efficiency and understandability of a map display, laboratory experiments were designed and conducted in this study. In the experiments the subjects were presented with electronic map displays of different attributes and performed a set of tasks. Their understanding of the information contents was measured based on the outcomes of the tasks, and subjective ratings of the ease of using the maps were obtained. Using the experimental data obtained, a structural equations model system is developed to explain the understandability of a map display in terms of the subject’s attributes and the characteristics of the map display. The experimental procedure and the modeling results are presented in this paper.     

An investigation of different methods for the prevention of parametric rolling

The parametric rolling of modern containerships is emerging as a serious problem, to the extent that its effects warrant a study into its prevention. In light of this, two methods for reduction of parametric rolling are proposed and examined by physical model experiments. The first is a sponson attached to the side of a ship, the purpose being to decrease the rate of change of the rollrestoring moment. The second is an antirolling tank to increase roll damping. By conducting free-running model experiments for a 6600-TEU post-Panamax container ship with sponsons under typical parametric rolling conditions, it was found that the sponsons could decrease the magnitude of parametric rolling. The antirolling tank could prevent parametric rolling completely in certain conditions, even in severe head seas. Using the damping coefficients from experimentally derived data of a model ship with an antiroll tank, a numerical simulation was established. The numerical model was then compared with the free-running model experiments. The results indicated that the numerical model could qualitatively verify the experimental results. Finally, an attempt to optimise the size of an antirolling tank for preventing parametric rolling for the subject post-Panamax container ship in the North Pacific Ocean is presented.     

Assessment of hub status among Asian ports from a network perspective

This paper proposes a novel network-based hub port assessment (NHPA) model through explicit formulations of connectivity and cooperation indices. Such a model is useful for port operators and policy makers to evaluate the relative influences of various quality characteristics from which carriers base their port choices on and identify port partners. Key insights can be obtained for port authorities to improve their port infrastructures and operations to achieve a competitive and sustainable hub port status. Three comprehensive case studies are conducted to assess the current standings and potentials of major Asian ports within networks of major carriers.     

Measuring user benefits of changes in the transport system when traveler awareness is limited

This paper derives and illustrates measures for the ex ante evaluation of user benefits associated with improvements in the transport system. In contrast with conventional analyses, we assume that awareness among travelers of changes in the transport system is limited and grows over time. Specifically, we postulate that each day (trip) provides travelers with an opportunity to learn about changes that occurred recently in the transport system. This learning process may involve learning through direct experience and indirect learning through for example social networks or information provision. Our measure of user benefits incorporates the conventional logsum-measure as a special case (when full awareness is assumed) and has a closed form solution under reasonable error term assumptions. A numerical illustration provides a first sign of face validity. We derive and discuss a number of practical implications, and discuss possible model extensions.     

Computational fluid dynamics-based multiobjective optimization of a surface combatant using a global optimization method

The main objective of this article is to describe the development of two advanced multiobjective optimization methods based on derivative-free techniques and complex computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis. Alternatives for the geometry and mesh manipulation techniques are also described. Emphasis is on advanced strategies for the use of computer resource-intensive CFD solvers in the optimization process: indeed, two up-to-date free surface-fitting Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equation solvers are used as analysis tools for the evaluation of the objective function and functional constraints. The two optimization methods are realized and demonstrated on a real design problem: the optimization of the entire hull form of a surface combatant, the David Taylor Model Basin—Model 5415. Realistic functional and geometrical constraints for preventing unfeasible results and to get a final meaningful design are enforced and discussed. Finally, a recently proposed verification and validation methodology is applied to assess uncertainties and errors in simulation-based optimization, based on the differences between the numerically predicted improvement of the objective function and the actual improvement measured in a dedicated experimental campaign. The optimized model demonstrates improved characteristics beyond the numerical and experimental uncertainty, confirming the validity of the simulation-based design frameworks.     

Long-memory characteristics of urban roadside air quality

Carbon monoxide is a major contributor to air pollution in urban cities, particularly at the roadside. Hourly, monthly and seasonal mean carbon monoxide concentration data are collected from a roadside air monitoring station in Hong Kong over 7-years. The station is a few metres from a major intersection surrounded by tall buildings. In particular, hourly patterns of concentrations on different days of the week are investigated. The data show that hourly carbon monoxide concentrations resemble the traffic pattern of the area and tend to be lower in the summer. Using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models shows that the daily traffic cycle strongly influences concentrations. Further, it is found that urban roadside carbon monoxide monitoring data exhibits a long-memory process, suggesting that a model incorporating long memory and seasonality effects is needed simulate urban roadside air quality.     

A suggestion of gap flow control devices for the suppression of rudder cavitation

This paper presents the numerical analysis of rudder cavitation in propeller slipstream and the development of a new rudder system aimed for lift augmentation and cavitation suppression. The new rudder system is equipped with cam devices which effectively close the gap between the horn/pintle and movable wing parts. A computational fluid dynamics code that solves the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations is used to analyze the flow field of various rudder systems in propeller slipstream. The body force momentum source terms that mimic flow field behind a rotating propeller are added in the momentum equations to represent the influence of the propeller and its slipstream. For detailed explication of the new rudder system’s lift augmentation and cavitation suppression mechanism, three-dimensional flow analysis is carried out. Simulations clearly display the mechanism of the lift augmentation and cavitation suppression. The computational results suggest that the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes-based computational fluid dynamics reproduces the flow field around a rudder in propeller slipstream and that the present concept for a cavitation suppressing rudder system is highly feasible and warrant further study for inclusion of the interaction with hull and mechanical design for manufacturing and operations.