Treatment of seasonal tickets for public transport in estimation and application of mode/destination choice models

A new model system dealing with trips of length up to 100 km has recently been developed in Norway. A new way of dealing with seasonal passes for public transport is used in the travel-to-work model. The objective was to account for the fact that a respondent that posses a seasonal pass for public transport may behave as if public transport is free on the day they report a travel diary. On the other hand, we can not assume that public transport is free for respondents that used other modes of transport or that public transport is free to alternative destinations. This problem was solved by defining seasonal pass as a separate alternative in the form of a nest that included all modes of travel. The cost of a seasonal pass is a common cost for all modes in the nest and will thus not affect the choice within the nest. The estimation of this specification is compared with the more common approach of assigning an average cost per day based on the cost of a monthly pass and the number of workdays in a month. The comparison indicates that the “average cost per day” approach may produce biased estimates for several parameters. It also turns out that the cost parameter for seasonal pass is higher than the parameter for “out of pocket” cost, probably reflecting that there will be some uncertainty with respect to the actual use of a seasonal pass.     

A comprehensive analysis of household transportation expenditures relative to other goods and services: an application to United States consumer expenditure data

This paper proposes a multiple discrete continuous nested extreme value (MDCNEV) model to analyze household expenditures for transportation-related items in relation to a host of other consumption categories. The model system presented in this paper is capable of providing a comprehensive assessment of how household consumption patterns (including savings) would be impacted by increases in fuel prices or any other household expense. The MDCNEV model presented in this paper is estimated on disaggregate consumption data from the 2002 Consumer Expenditure Survey data of the United States. Model estimation results show that a host of household and personal socio-economic, demographic, and location variables affect the proportion of monetary resources that households allocate to various consumption categories. Sensitivity analysis conducted using the model demonstrates the applicability of the model for quantifying consumption adjustment patterns in response to rising fuel prices. It is found that households adjust their food consumption, vehicular purchases, and savings rates in the short run. In the long term, adjustments are also made to housing choices (expenses), calling for the need to ensure that fuel price effects are adequately reflected in integrated microsimulation models of land use and travel.     

An activity-based approach for scheduling multimodal transit services

This paper proposes a new activity-based transit assignment model for investigating the scheduling (or timetabling) problem of transit services in multi-modal transit networks. The proposed model can be used to generate the short-term and long-term timetables of multimodal transit lines for transit operations and service planning purposes. The interaction between transit timetables and passenger activity-travel scheduling behaviors is captured by the proposed model, as the activity and travel choices of transit passengers are considered explicitly in terms of departure time choice, activity/trip chain choices, activity duration choice, transit line and mode choices. A heuristic solution algorithm which combines the Hooke–Jeeves method and an iterative supply–demand equilibrium approach is developed to solve the proposed model. Two numerical examples are presented to illustrate the differences between the activity-based approach and the traditional trip-based method, together with comparison on the effects of optimal timetables with even and uneven headways. It is shown that the passenger travel scheduling pattern derived from the activity-based approach is significantly different from that obtained by the trip-based method, and that a demand-sensitive (with uneven headway) timetable is more efficient than an even-headway timetable.     

State-of-the art of freight forecast modeling: lessons learned and the road ahead

In this paper we review freight forecasting models and current advances and needs with respect to data and model development. We then present a case study to suggest which models should be developed for the State of California in the US. We suggest several alternatives including an aggregate commodity flow model, a disaggregate regional logistics model and a hybrid regional logistics model with a truck touring model. We point out however, that the data requirements for the latter model would be extensive. In addition, the development of hybrid models, for example progress in the integration of regional logistics models with urban truck touring models, will introduce new problems such as reconciling the outputs of multiple models for consistency.     

Estimation method for railway passengers’ train choice behavior with smart card transaction data

Smart card systems have become the predominant method of collecting public transport fares in Japan. Transaction data obtained through smart cards have resulted in a large amount of archived information on how passengers use public transportation. The data have the potential to be used for modeling passenger behavior and demand for public transportation. This study focused on train choices made by railway passengers. If each passenger’s train choice can be identified over a long period of time, this information would be useful for improving the customer relationship management of the railway company and for improving train timetables. The aim of this study was to develop a methodology for estimating which train is boarded by each smart card holder. This paper presents a methodology and an algorithm for estimation using long-term transaction data. To validate the computation time and accuracy of the estimation, an empirical analysis is carried out using actual transaction data provided by a railway company in Japan. The results show that the proposed method is capable of estimating passenger usage patterns from smart card transaction data collected over a long time period.     

A modelling system to simulate goods movements at an urban scale

The paper reports a modelling system to simulate goods movements at an urban scale. It allows joint analysis of choices made by end-consumers (assumed to be families) and retailers. These movements are examined at two levels: analysis of commodity flows, in terms of quantity, generated by the consumption of commodities; analysis of commodity flows, in terms of vehicles, due to restocking. The first level allows us to calculate the goods quantity flows due to consumption and restocking; the second level allows us to determine the service, vehicles used and target time, as well as the route chosen for restocking sales outlets in order to estimate vehicle flows on the urban/metropolitan transportation network. The modelling system is a multi-step model and considers a disaggregated approach for each decisional level.     

Equality of bargaining power in contracts for international liner shipping

Mandatory rules exist in contracts for international liner shipping primarily because of imbalances and non-equity in the allocation of contract responsibilities. The superior bargaining position owned by the carriers depends largely upon liner market monopoly levels, the supply and demand balance between the shipper and carrier, and the cargo volume size of the shippers. With the development of shipping technologies, mode of transport, and shipping competition policy, the unequal comparison of bargaining forces between shippers and carriers changes. When the existing mandatory rule was deemed no longer necessary due to changing circumstances, legislation requirements to restore freedom to contract became apparent. When both sides have equal bargaining power, adoption of the principle of freedom of contract for their business relationships is suitable. The Rotterdam Rules concerning freedom of volume contract construction is based on equal bargaining powers between both sides and responds to the evolving situation of the industry. The Rules represent the development trend of today’s theory of contracts for international liner shipping and the demand for legal and institutional changes.     

The UN’s 2030 Agenda for sustainable development and the maritime transport domain: the role and challenges of IMO and its stakeholders through a grounded theory perspective

In September 2015, the United Nations (UN) officially adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development together with 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) (UN, 2016). The attainment of the SDGs requires a strong commitment by all UN Member States, not least by the Member States at the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This empirical research aims to identify the role and challenges of stakeholders at IMO, when implementing the UN’s 2030 Agenda in the international maritime transport domain using a grounded theory approach. This paper describes the methodology and the analytical process undertaken and presents the main findings based on empirical data. The results are presented as a set of six propositions. The first proposition presents the phenomena engulfing Member States at IMO stemming out from lack of knowledge and policy incoherency on the 2030 Agenda at national level. The other five propositions suggest how these challenges could potentially be best alleviated through an IMO-led strategy on sustainable development within the context of the 2030 Agenda, supported by an appropriate governance structure that sees the introduction of strategic actors for coordinating the implementation of the SDGs at national level. With the support of a Task Force, and by also making use of the IMO Member State Audit Scheme (IMSAS), to create more awareness and ownership, the strategic actors could work towards balancing the three dimensions of sustainable development—the economic, the environmental, and the social dimensions—which were found to be imbalanced in the international maritime transport domain.