A traffic flow simulator for short‐term travel time forecasting

This paper presents an off‐line forecasting system for short‐term travel time forecasting. These forecasts are based on the historical traffic count data provided by detectors installed on Annual Traffic Census (ATC) stations in Hong Kong. A traffic flow simulator (TFS) is developed for short‐term travel time forecasting (in terms of offline forecasting), in which the variation of perceived travel time error and the fluctuations of origin‐destination (O‐D) demand are considered explicitly. On the basis of prior O‐D demand and partial updated detector data, the TFS can estimate the link travel times and flows for the whole network together with their variances and covariances. The short‐term travel time forecasting by O‐D pair can also be assessed and the O‐D matrix can be updated simultaneously. The application of the proposed off‐line forecasting system is illustrated by a numerical example in Hong Kong.     

Multiphysic modelling of railway vehicles equipped with pneumatic suspensions

This article presents a multidisciplinary approach of railway pneumatic suspension modelling: both multibody and pneumatic aspects are taken into account. The work aims at obtaining a realistic model of the secondary suspension and coupling it with a multibody model of a train. Various components of the pneumatic circuit such as bellows, tanks, pipes and valves are taken into account. The article focuses on the bellow-pipe-tank subsystem for which several modelling approaches are presented and compared. Differences between differential and algebraic models are highlighted, and an application-dependent choice between them is suggested. A complete model of the pneumatic circuit is then obtained and coupled with a multibody model of the train. As a result, the behaviour of a suburban train equipped with a pneumatic secondary suspension is analysed, in particular undesired oscillating motions which affect the comfort. Topological modifications and improvements of the suspension are also investigated and discussed.     

Intra-Platoon Collision Behavior during Emergency Operations

This paper presents current research regarding intra-platoon collision dynamics for rapid decelerations. Measures of ride quality and impact severity are introduced to allow comparisons between different collision scenarios. In this study, the disturbance input to the platoon is assumed to be a rapid braking of the lead vehicle. Several deceleration rates are used to assess the overall platoon behavior and the effect of the intra-platoon collisions on the platoon passengers. The role of the desired headway spacing on preventing the occurrence of intra-platoon collisions and improving rider comfort is discussed.     

Effects of information in road transport networks with recurrent congestion

This paper aims to gain more insight into the implications of information provision to drivers on the performance of road transport networks with recurrent congestion. For this purpose, a simulation program consisting of three components has been written. The first component is the traffic simulation model, the second component is the information provision mechanism, and the third component monitors the behavioural decision-making process of the drivers, which is modelled using a utility-based satisficing principle. Three types of information provision mechanisms will be considered: information based upon own-experience, after-trip information and real-time en route information. The findings in this paper, obtained in a hypothetical context, underline the important relationship betweenoverreaction, thelevel of market penetration and thequality of the information. High quality information allows a high level of market penetration, while low quality information, even when provided at low levels of market penetration, induces overreaction. Furthermore, real-time en route information is in particular beneficial during the process leading to a steady state; it reduces the variance in travel time considerably. The paper concludes with a discussion on the market potential of motorist information systems when commercially marketed.     

Eddies around Madagascar — The retroflection re-considered

The Agulhas Current with its retroflection and attendant eddy-shedding is the cause of some of the greatest mesoscale variability in the ocean. This paper considers the area to the south and east of Madagascar, which provides some of the source waters of the Agulhas Current, and examines the propagating sea surface height signals in altimetry and output from a numerical model, OCCAM. Both show bands of variability along the axis of the East Madagascar Current (EMC) and along a zonal band near 25°S. Sequences of images plus associated temperature data suggest that a number of westward-propagating eddies are present in this zonal band. The paper then focuses on the region to the south of the island, where ocean colour and infra-red imagery are evocative of an East Madagascar Retroflection. The synthesis of data analysed in this paper, however, shows that remotely observed features in this area can be explained by anticyclonic eddies moving westward through the region, and this explanation is consistent with numerical model output and the trajectories of drifting buoys.     

A review of the Effect of α/W ratio on fracture toughness （Ⅱ） experimental investigation in LEFM

In part I of this series, experimental investigation in EPFM （elastic-plastic fracture mechanics） had been discussed. In this paper, experimental investigation in LEFM （ linear elastic fracture mechanics） is given. Fracture toughness tests had been carried out on three different strength steels, using both through-cracked specimens with different α/W ratio and semi-elliptical cracked specimens with variable crack size and shape. Results show that the fracture toughness KIC increases with decreasing α/W when α/W 〈 0.3 for three-point-bend specimens, and that for α/W 〉 0.3, it is independent of α/W. Shallow crack specimens, both through-cracked and surface-cracked, gave markedly higher values than deeply notched specimens. However, the effect of crack shape on fracture toughness is negligible. Results also show that the LEFM approach to fracture is not tenable for design stresses where αc is often very small, far less than 2.5 （ KIC/σy）^2.     

Environmental trends of ports and harbours: Implications for planning and management

The traditional view of ports as evolving from human settlements to distribution centres is re-examined in an ecological context. The discussion is essential because of the persisting traditional approach to 'global' port development, i.e. directed primarily by technological optimization related to cargo transfer and ocean trasportation. Growing environmental concerns and realities indicate the need for a broader environmental view in which the port is recognized as part of a larger interactive coastal ecosystem, with environmental pressures by the port on the surrounding environment, as well as by the environment on the port. The paper argues for an ecological basis for coastal port development, analyses the environment implications of riverine linkages between port and hinterland, and details some environmental consequnces of changing industrialization and chemical practices. It also identifies initiatives for relevant planning and future port management.     

Regional impacts of new transport infrastructure: a multisectoral potentials approach

This is the second of two background papers sponsored for the Symposium by the Administrative Commission for the north of the Netherlands. Its purpose is to provide an indication of the effects of the proposed high speed rail line between Amsterdam, Groningen and Hamburg on employment in the corridor. The authors first review the techniques of forecasting these effects discussed in the literature. The potentials approach is adopted for their analysis, the mathematics and underlying assumptions of which are presented. Finally, this model is run to provide an estimate of the impact on regional employment of three variants of the proposed rail line.     

养生作用对硫沥青性能影响分析

硫磺部分替代传统石油沥青用于道路工程建设可减少石油沥青用量,降低施工能源消耗,促进工业废渣中硫磺的回收利用,具有较高的经济和环保价值。为探究硫磺掺量（质量分数）及养生作用对硫沥青（SEA）性能的影响,采用差示扫描量热仪（DSC）验证硫沥青中硫磺的重结晶现象,对养生前后硫沥青的基本物理性能和黏度进行分析,并采用动态剪切流变仪（DSR）和弯曲梁流变仪（BBR）对养生前后硫沥青的流变特性和疲劳性能进行评价,最后借助荧光显微镜（FM）观察养生前、后硫磺在沥青中的微观分布特性。研究结果表明：养生后高硫磺掺量的硫沥青DSC曲线出现吸热峰,硫沥青（特别是高硫磺掺量下）的劲度有所增加,因此对硫沥青进行养生使其性能稳定后再进行相关性能评价更具现实意义;硫磺掺量较低（≤ 10%）时,硫磺主要以溶解硫的形式存在于沥青中起到软化沥青的作用,因此沥青的低温变形能力有所改善,但其高温抗变形能力有所降低;当硫磺掺量较高（≥ 35%）时,硫磺主要以重结晶的形式悬浮在沥青中使沥青变硬,在增加沥青高温抗变形能力的同时也牺牲了其低温抗裂能力;硫磺掺量较低时,硫沥青黏度随着硫磺掺量的增加而降低;硫磺掺量较高时,硫沥青90℃和105℃黏度随着硫磺掺量的增加而增加,但硫沥青120℃和135℃黏度相差不大,同时硫磺加入最高可降低沥青的施工温度达20℃;线性振幅扫描（LAS）试验结果表明,养生后的硫沥青疲劳寿命比基质沥青长,其中35%硫沥青疲劳性能最佳;硫磺掺量进一步增加,硫沥青疲劳寿命缩短至与基质沥青相近;FM分析表明,硫磺掺量不高于5%时,硫磺全部溶解于沥青中,且养生后硫磺未重结晶,相应硫沥青无荧光性;硫磺掺量高于5%时,硫磺在沥青中分布均匀,养生后10%硫沥青中硫晶斑尺寸和面积显著增大,高硫磺掺量硫沥青中硫晶斑面积仅略有增加。