Bus running time prediction using a statistical pattern recognition technique

Abstract

Given that real-time bus arrival information is viewed positively by passengers of public transit, it is useful to enhance the methodological basis for improving predictions. Specifically, data captured and communicated by intelligent systems are to be supplemented by reliable predictive travel time. This paper reports a model for real-time prediction of urban bus running time that is based on statistical pattern recognition technique, namely locally weighted scatter smoothing. Given a pattern that characterizes the conditions for which bus running time is being predicted, the trained model automatically searches through the historical patterns which are the most similar to the current pattern and on that basis, the prediction is made. For training and testing of the methodology, data retrieved from the automatic vehicle location and automatic passenger counter systems of OC Transpo (Ottawa, Canada) were used. A comparison with other methodologies shows enhanced predictive capability.     

Agricultural vehicles and sustainable safe road traffic: solving conflicts on arterial highways

Addressing the issues of traffic safety in rural areas presents a constant challenge. The mix of light and heavy vehicles and the considerable differences in speed among these traffic participants result in high risks and delays for the faster vehicles. Agricultural vehicles (AVs) in particular have such an impact on traffic, especially when using arterial highways. This paper reviews the problems of safety and delays that AVs cause on arterial highways, and the appropriate mitigation. The concept of 'sustainable safety' in The Netherlands focuses on these problems, because of the proposed construction of parallel roads alongside all arterial highways. However, Dutch accident statistics cannot justify the high costs for the construction of parallel roads alongside 7000 km of arterial highways. Delays experienced by fast traffic are another reason for separating AVs from other road users with parallel roads. Alternative measures alongside the arterial highway, such as passing bays, restricting AVs to travelling at off-peak only and improving the conspicuity of the AVs, may be more cost-effective ways of reducing delays and/or improving traffic safety on arterial highways. Another solution may be to eliminate the need for AVs to use the arterial highway by altering their routes. For this purpose, land reallocation projects (as practised in Holland) can provide a useful tool.     

Gain-scheduled EGR control algorithm for light-duty diesel engines with static-gain parameter modeling

This paper presents a model-based gain scheduling algorithm of a PI-based EGR controller for light-duty diesel engines. In order to capture nonlinear characteristic of the EGR system, we have proposed a new scheduling variable to illustrate the static-gain of the plant model as a linear function. The proposed scheduling variable is composed of the air-tofuel ratio of the exhaust gas and the pressure ratio between the exhaust and intake manifolds. Using the scheduling variable, a static-gain model achieved 0.94 of the R-squared value with 810 of steady-state measurements which include key engine operating conditions. Based on the model of the static-gain parameter, the gains of the PI controller are decided by Skogestad internal model control (SIMC) tuning rule in real-time. Through various scenarios of engine experiments, the proposed gain scheduling algorithm represented that the PI gains were successfully adapted according to the changes of the engine operating conditions.     

Port performance in Asia: Does production efficiency imply environmental efficiency?

Atmospheric and water pollution are two main sources of negative environmental externalities generated by shipping. This study recognizes the negative externalities in the production of port services in East Asia by explicitly incorporating environmental impacts of shipping. Programming techniques are used to analyze 156 Origin–Destination pairs between 13 major East Asian ports, to derive the externality-augmented measures of port productivity and efficiency at the waterside. The results suggest that the inclusion of externality mitigation strategies can exert a considerable influence on efficiency performance.     

Property protection,financial constraints and economic growth

The relationship between financial system, law framework or economic growth has attracted considerable attention for years. However, there are some questions still remaining unanswered: between tangible assets protection and intellectual property protection, which is more important? Between external financing and property rights protection, which does play a greater role for the economic development? According to the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model with non-free market factors, we study the effectiveness of property protection and external financing, and try to answer these questions. The model fits the data well, and we find:(1) protection of intellectual property plays a more important role than that of tangible asset, in the promotion of economy;(2) relaxation of financial constraints on corporate is more effective in the short run, while the protection of intellectual property is more effectual in the long term.     

Performance Indicator Importance in MPA Management Using a Multi-Criteria Approach

Much has been written about the usefulness of marine protected areas (MPAs) as a management tool. Their performance has been measured using biological and ecological indicators. However, objectives of management also include economic and social responsibilities. As such, stakeholder objectives in MPA management are frequently incompatible. This has been attributed to the variety of stakeholders with an interest in how MPAs are managed. This article considers the development of a performance indicator hierarchy for the Egadi Islands Marine Reserve, and a multi-criteria approach implemented to define compromise positions between stakeholders in decision-making. Data was obtained from a pairwise comparison survey using the analytic hierarchy process to investigate preferences of stakeholder groups for performance indicators in evaluating marine protected area management. The analysis showed that although there are five key stakeholder groups, none are homogenous in prioritizing performance indicators and that none are clear with respect to what the MPA means for them.     

Fuel Property Effects on Liquid and Vapor Penetrations of Evaporating Sprays

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of fuel properties on liquid and vapor penetrations in evaporating spray systems. A recently developed model, which can simultaneously account for the finite thermal conductivity, finite mass diffusivity and turbulence effects within atomizing multi-component liquid fuel sprays, is utilized for the numerical predictions. Two different multi-component fuels with different boiling temperatures, densities and other thermal properties are implemented in the KIVA-3V computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code to study the evaporation behaviors. A six-component surrogate fuel is used to emulate the relevant volatility property of the real diesel fuel, and a second bi-component fuel is chosen to represent a low boiling-temperature fuel. The numerical results are compared with the experimental data, and the representative results are obtained. For a lower density and lower boiling temperature fuel, the liquid penetration length is shorter. However, the vapor penetration lengths are not affected by the fuel type in terms of fuel volatility. Available experimental data are used for validation and appraisal of the multi-component evaporation model.     

Flame propagation model for a rotary Atkinson cycle SI engine

The rotary Atkinson cycle engine includes two modes of combustion: combustion initiation and propagation in ignition chamber and then flame jet entrainment and propagation in expansion chamber. The turbulent flame propagation model is a predictive model for SI engines which could be developed for this type of combustion for the rotary Atkinson engine similar to the congenital engine with pre-chamber; in split combustion chamber SI engines, small amount of fuel is burned in pre-chamber while the fuel burned in ignition chamber of rotary Atkinson cycle is considerable. In this study a mathematical modeling of spherical flame propagation inside ignition chamber and new combined conical flame and spherical flame propagation model of a new two-stroke Atkinson cycle SI engine will be presented. The mathematical modeling is carried out using two-zone combustion analysis and the model also is validated against experimental tests and compared with previous study using non-predictive Weibe function model.     

DC Motor Current Control Algorithm Using Proportional-Integral LQT with Disturbance Observer

This paper proposes a DC motor current control algorithm using a proportional-integral linear quadratic tracking (LQT) controller with a disturbance observer for the electronic stability control (ESC) brake system. Previously researched algorithms related to current control using disturbance rejection are robust control, adaptive control, LQT, or proportional-integral disturbance observer (PI-DOB); each of them has both advantages and disadvantages. The proposed algorithm uses a disturbance observer in order to improve disturbance rejection performance while avoiding the drawbacks of high gain property. Additionally, the proposed algorithm adds integral control in order to improve performance in the low frequency bands. In order to assess the performance of the proposed algorithm, simulations and experiments are performed in the time and frequency domains to compare the proposed algorithm with different algorithms which are actually implemented into the ESC. The proposed algorithm shows good characteristics near the cut-off frequency, which can be confirmed clearly by the time domain results.     

Electrically Assisted Internal Combustion Engines: A Comparative Analysis

An electrically assisted internal combustion engine is obtained by combining a conventional engine and one or more electrical motors of considerably smaller size. A key feature of such an innovative vehicle hybridization approach is that the torque generated by electric machines is not transmitted to the wheels. The electric motors are, in fact, intended only to assist the internal combustion engine in low efficiency, low performance, or high polluting working conditions. They however, draw extra power and energy from the battery. This paper presents a tool to evaluate different possible solutions in terms of energy balance, efficiency, battery stress and battery ageing. The method, which is based on suitable mathematical models and specific analysis criteria is also exploited to compare eight different configurations of a C-segment vehicle, pointing out limits and capabilities of traditional 12?14 V systems.