Trading strategies in the market for tankers

This paper introduces a new approach in timing the sale and purchase of ships in the tanker market and examines the performance of this trading strategy over the period January 1976 to September 2004. Based on the long-run cointegration relationship between earnings and price, we establish a trading model which can be used as an indicator of investment or divestment timing decisions. We also perform statistical tests using the bootstrap approach in order to discount the possibility of data snooping biases and test the robustness of our trading models. Our results indicate that trading strategies based on earning-price ratios significantly out-perform buy and hold strategies in the tanker market.     

A system dynamics approach to land use/transportation system performance modeling Part I: Methodology

This paper presents a system dynamics approach to simultaneous land use/transportation system performance modeling. A model is designed based on the causality functions and feedback loop structure between a large number of physical, socioeconomic, and policy variables. The model consists of 7 sub‐models: population, migration of population, household, job growth‐employment‐land availability, housing development, travel demand, and traffic congestion level. The model is formulated in DYNAMO simulation language, and tested on a data set from Montgomery County, MD. In Part I: Methodology, the overall approach and the structure of the model system is discussed and the causal‐loop diagrams and major equations are presented. In Part II: Application, the model is calibrated and tested with data from Montgomery County, MD. Least square method and overall system behavior are used to estimate the model parameters. The model is fitted with the 1970–80 data and validated with the 1980–1990 data. Robustness and sensitivities with respect to input parameters such as birth rate or regional economy growth are analyzed. The model performance as a policy analysis tool is examined by predicting the year by year impacts of highway capacity expansion on land use and transportation system performance. While this is a first attempt in using dynamic system simulation modeling in simultaneous treatment of land use and transportation system interactions, and model development and application are limited due to data availability, the results indicate that the proposed method is a promising approach in dealing with complex urban land use/transportation modeling.     

Static and Dynamic Stability of Unsymmetric Two-Axle Railway Vehicles Possessing Perfect Steering

For railway vehicles having coned wheels mounted on solid axles, there is a conflict between the stability of lateral deviations from the motion along the track and the ability to steer round curves. A general theory is developed for the two-axle vehicle in which there is a lack of symmetry, fore-and-aft, both of the interwheelset structure and of the equivalent conicities of the wheelsets. It is shown that whilst parameters can be selected which provide static and dynamic stability and perfect steering for both directions of motion, there is a lightly damped mode of oscillation for any practical configuration and the significance of this is discussed.     

The effect of the oil crisis on the growth in the ownership and use of cars

Since the oil crisis of 1973, a number of studies have been made in various countries of the effects of the rise in petrol prices on the level of traffic flow, but rather fewer have attempted to delineate the complex chain of reactions within the car market set off by this impulse. We attempt to do this, using data from the UK.Since 1966 during the prediction stage of the first London Transportation Study it became obvious that low income and high income households had different rates of growth of car ownership, mainly because low income households bought cheap, old cars which vary in quantity and price differently from expensive, new cars. The Greater London Council therefore sponsored a study of car prices by age and size, starting from 1957 annually, and since the oil crisis, evaluated monthly. This has enabled us to examine the strong change in trend that had occurred, with large cars depreciating 15% per annum more than the smallest. The quantities of cars of each size registered each month are available from national statistics and this enables us to say that the previous 1% per annum increase in car size was arrested, with new cars becoming substantially smaller.A model of the car market has been developed which relates on the one hand the price distribution of cars by age, and on the other hand the price. distribution of the stock of cars owned at each household income level. Via the expenditure on car purchase at each household income level and the distribution of the length of time between purchase and resale of cars, a fully dynamic model has been developed to relate expenditure flow and stock. This enables us to test the effect of different trends on the dynamic equilibrium in the car market.The implications of the two trends noted above on the prediction of future car ownership growth are discussed, with the standstill since the oil crisis attributed to petrol prices via the split in household expenditure between purchase and use.     

IN VITRO GLYCATION OF HEMOGLOBIN (HB):CHOOSING THE APPROPRIATE MODEL

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Cooperation in transit delivery in West German metropolitan areas

West Germany is densely populated, averaging 245 inhabitants/km², but varying widely between urban agglomerations and rural areas. Transport volume has increased by 40% since 1970, with virtually all growth due to private automobiles. Since 1981 public transit has been suffering from decreasing demand.A 1964 Expert's Report to the German federal government was the stimulus for initiating an effective funding mechanism for new public transit construction. In 1965 Germany's first federated transit authority was founded for the region of Hamburg.Principal among the goals of any cooperative agreement among transit companies are improvements for the passengers and improvement of revenues for the companies. To attain these ends, two distinct forms of transit aggrements have been developed in Germany: transit cooperative (Verkehrsgemeinschaft) and transit federation (Verkehrsverbund). The former is more suitable for smaller to medium-sized towns, while the latter is more suitable for larger cities. The two types are described in this article.German transit federations during the 1970s succeeded in significantly increasing ridership, while during the 1980s patronage has either remained steady or has declined. Yet transit federations showed much better perfomance than did public transit in general. In terms of costs and revenues, no public transit organization in Germany is able to break even; deficits vary between 42% and 55%. The author concludes, however, that hidden subsidies for automobile traffic are far higher, because of environmental damage and the high social cost of traffic accidents.     

A maritime productivity study 1859-1919

This is one of two papers designed to test the ability of a theoretical model of productivity measurement [1] with times series empirical data. The analysis was able to identify trends in productivity growth for sailing ships and stcamships. scparating long and short run components . One of the interesting features of the findings is that the long run growth rate is the same for both sailing and steamships. Although sail and steam appear to be two unique technologies, it is found that technologica progress is evolutionary not revolutionary.

The techique using covariance analysis proved useful for times series productivity measurement.     

Latent structure in road systems

The application of Q-analysis to road transport systems is introduced in this paper, but no prior knowledge of the methodology is assumed. It is argued that the route-link relation of transport systems has a connectivity structure overlooked by conventional transportation theory, and that this structure constrains traffic flow. This is illustrated at the micro-level by a complicated road intersection, and at the macro-level with a simple analysis of a town. The representation of road systems is discussed in this context, and it leads to a new result called the Link Face Theorem. It is suggested that the conventional theory can be usefully extended by studying the latent structure of road systems which is presently overlooked.     

Link choice proportions from trip distribution and assignment models: An overview and comparison

A number of estimation procedures have been suggested for the situation where a prior estimate of an origin-destination matrix is to be updated on the basis of recently-acquired traffic counts. These procedures assume that both the link flows and the proportionate usage of each link made by each origin-destination flow (referred to collectively as the link choice proportions) are known. This paper examines the possibility and methods for estimating the link choice proportions. Three methods are presented: (1) using ad hoc iteration between trip distribution and traffic assignment; (2) combining trip distribution and assignment in one step; (3) solving a new optimization problem in which the path flows are directly considered as variables and its optimal solution is governed by a logit type formula. The algorithms, covergencies and computational efficiencies of these methods are investigated. Results of testing the three methods on example networks are discussed.