Bivariate Constant-Stress Accelerated Degradation Model and Inference Based on the Inverse Gaussian Process

Modern highly reliable products may have two or more quality characteristics (QCs) because of their complex structures and abundant functions. Relations between the QCs should be considered when assessing the reliability of these products. This paper conducts a Bayesian analysis for a bivariate constant-stress accelerated degradation model based on the inverse Gaussian (IG) process. We assume that the product considered has two QCs and each of the QCs is governed by an IG process. The relationship between the QCs is described by a Frank copula function. We also assume that the stress on the products affects not only the parameters of the IG processes, but also the parameter of the Frank copula function. The Bayesian MCMC method is developed to calculate the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the model parameters. The reliability function and the mean-time-to-failure (MTTF) are estimated through the calculation of the posterior samples. Finally, a simulation example is presented to illustrate the proposed bivariate constant-stress accelerated degradation model.     

Research on Nonlinear Dynamic Simulation and Fatigue Reliability Life Prediction for Synthesis Transmission System of Self-Propelled Gun

Aiming to the puzzle that the inner load of nonlinear synthesis transmission system is difficult to obtain, a new kind of virtual prototype establishment and simulation method is put forward. The influence on nonlinear vibration with flexible rotor, bearing backlash is analyzed based on a virtual prototype. To validate the virtual prototype of nonlinear gear transmission system, the corresponding test platform is established. The consistency between simulation results and test results proves that the simulation results of the virtual prototype can be used to calculate the fatigue reliability life of key components. A new kind of fatigue reliability life prediction method of gear system considering multi-random parameter distribution is put forward based on the fatiguestatistic theory. Considering the periodicity of gear meshing, linear interpolation method is adopted to obtain the stress-time course of random load spectrum based on the gear’s complicated torque provided by virtual prototype. The gear’s P-S_a-S_m-N curved cluster can be simulated based on material’s P-S-N curve. The simulation process considers the parameter distributions of stress concentration coefficients, dimension coefficients and surface quality treatment coefficients, and settles the puzzle that traditional test methods cannot acquire the gear’s fatigue life of all reliability levels. This method can provide the distribution function and the interval of fatigue reliability life of gear’s danger region, and has a guide meaning for the gear maintenance periods determination and reliability evaluation.     

Guaranteed Cost Iterative Learning Control for Multi-Phase Batch Processes

Batch process is a typical multi-phase process. Due to the interaction between the phases of the batch process, high precision control in a single phase cannot guarantee high precision control of the whole batch process. In order to solve this problem, the guaranteed cost iterative learning control (ILC) of multi-phase batch processes is studied in this paper. Firstly, through introducing the output error, the state error and the extended information, the multi-phase batch process is transformed into an equivalent 2D switched system which has different dimensions. In addition, under the measurable condition, the guaranteed cost iterative learning control law with extended information is designed. The proposed control law ensures not only the stability of the system but also the optimal control performance. Next, in order to study the stability of the system and the minimum running time under the condition of stable running, the multi-Lyapunov function method is used. By means of the average dwell time method, the sufficient conditions ensuring system to be exponentially stable are given in the form of linear matrix inequality (LMI). Finally, the injection molding process is taken as an example to make simulation, which shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Error Analysis of Liquid Holdup Measurement in Gas-Liquid Annular Flow Through Circular Pipes Using High-Speed Camera Method

Accurate measurement of gas-liquid phase fraction is essential for the proper modelling of the pressure drop, heat transfer coefficient, mass transfer rate and interfacial area in two-phase flows. In this paper, taking the issue of optical distortion into account, an analytical model was proposed to estimate and correct the liquid holdup in gas-liquid annular flow through a circular pipe using high-speed camera method. The error in the liquid holdup measurement generated from different refractive indices among transparent circular pipe, liquid film and air core was firstly theoretically analyzed based on the geometric optics. Experimental tests were then carried out to identify the difference as well as to validate the proposed model. Results indicated that the prediction of the liquid holdup has a good performance with the experimental data (i.e., mean relative error is 4.1%) and the measured liquid holdup is larger than the real one. It was found that the measured liquid holdup is larger than the real one. Generally, when the real liquid holdup gets smaller, the discrepancy between the measured liquid holdup by image and the real liquid holdup becomes more significant. Thus, after measuring the liquid holdup from the images, the value of the measured liquid holdup must be corrected by the present model in order to obtain the real liquid holdup.     

Formal or Informal? The Dispute Settlement Mechanisms of China's Free Trade Agreements

The dispute settlement mechanism (DSM) has long been the focus of attention because of its significant role in the institutional construction of China’s free trade agreements (FTAs). Thus, this paper is to make an analysis of the DSMs of China’s established FTAs from a legal perspective of international regime study, which leads to the finding of a co-existence mode of formal and informal DSMs in China’s FTAs. This paper also discusses the motivation and significance of such a choice.     

Price fluctuation,risk hedge and choice of optimal point

On the question of optimal hedge ratio, this paper firstly draws the chance to choose a market-entering point to the model. Using the replication principle of finance engineering, we make an assumed equity and get the optimal hedge ratio of the model, which gives the theoretical support to the practice. We should not only concern on the market-entering point, but also concern on the period of the hedge that still influences the effect of hedging. But only the period of hedging gives its affection if the time is relatively long.     

Informed trading,heterogeneity investment,liquidity shocks and the valuation of credit default swaps

This paper explores the effect of informed trading, heterogeneity investment and liquidity shocks on the valuation of credit default swaps (CDSs). Under the condition of asymmetric information, the informed trading plays an important role in the valuation of CDS. Instruction order flow has a significant influence on CDS price. And the scope of influence changes in accordance with different time interval, company status and the size of bid-ask spread. Heterogeneity of investors seriously affects the market liquidity and subsequently affects the CDS price. The bigger heterogeneity of the investment philosophy, investment habits, investment preference and so on is the bigger risk for market liquidity, and the higher price for CDS shall be. On the contrary, the conclusion is also consistent. The effectiveness of liquidity, whether it is before or after the financial crisis, dominates the fluctuation of CDS price. The premium of liquidity accounts for 36% to 50% of the CDS price.     

Influence of the type of the pulverized coal concentrator on the operation of a tangential fired boiler with horizontal bias combustion

In this paper, the problems of combustion instability and high-temperature corrosion of pulverized coal fired boiler are investigated by numerical simulation and analysis of the momentum moment. Elbow and twisting plate type of burners are used in the boiler, and the reverse moment of momentum is formed at the outlet of the fuel-rich side of the burner. The momentum moment in the boiler is opposite to the designed tangential circle, and the tangential circle in the boiler is reversed rotation. The reverse moment of momentum at the burner outlet can be eliminated by using louver horizontal bias pulverized coal burner, while the problems of combustion instability and high-temperature corrosion of the boiler are solved, and the combustion efficiency is improved. Accordingly,economic benefit is obviously got.     

A novel de-noising method based on discrete cosine transform and its application in the fault feature extraction of hydraulic pump

Aiming at the existing problems of discrete cosine transform (DCT) de-noising method, we introduce the idea of wavelet neighboring coefficients (WNC) de-noising method, and propose the cosine neighboring coefficients (CNC) de-noising method. Based on DCT, a novel method for the fault feature extraction of hydraulic pump is analyzed. The vibration signal of pump is de-noised with CNC de-noising method, and the fault feature is extracted by performing Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) to the output signal. The analysis results of the simulation signal and the actual one demonstrate that the proposed CNC de-noising method and the fault feature extraction method have more superior ability than the traditional ones.     

Urban end distribution optimization under e-commerce environment

With the rapid development of e-commerce, urban end distribution plays more and more important role in e-commerce logistics. The collection and delivery points (CDPs), between online retailers and customers, provide a way to improve the service quality of urban end distribution. But it will be more difficult to obtain an optimal solution of urban end delivery plan when many CDPs joint a complicated delivery network, since the solution space is always too large for many traditional heuristic algorithms to search. In this paper, a two-stage optimization method based on geographic information system (GIS) and improved cooperative particle swarm optimization (CPSO) is proposed. This method takes full advantage of powerful network analysis of GIS and strong global search of CPSO. A new cooperative learning mechanism, global sub-swarm, local sub-swarm and normal sub-swarm (GS-LS-NS), is used to improve the search mode of CPSO. Finally, several experiments are conducted to show the better performance of GIS-CPSO, compared with single PSO, GIS-CPSO and ArcGIS (software of GIS) separately. The conclusion of this research is much useful and applicable for logistics service providers.