Resolving the impact of short-term variations in physical processes impacting on the spawning environment of eastern Baltic cod: application of a 3-D hydrodynamic model

Variations in oxygen conditions below the permanent halocline influence the ecosystem of the Baltic Sea through a number of mechanisms. In this study, we examine the effects of physical forcing on variations in the volume of deep oxygenated water suitable for reproductive success of central Baltic cod. Recent research has identified the importance of inflows of saline and oxygenated North Sea water into the Baltic Sea for the recruitment of Baltic cod. However, other processes have been suggested to modify this reproduction volume including variations in timing and volume of terrestrial runoff, variability of the solubility of oxygen due to variations in sea surface temperature as well as the influence of variations in wind stress. In order to examine the latter three mechanisms, we have performed simulations utilizing the Kiel Baltic Sea model for a period of a weak to moderate inflow of North Sea water into the Baltic, modifying wind stress, freshwater runoff and thermal inputs. The model is started from three-dimensional fields of temperature, salinity and oxygen obtained from a previous model run and forced by realistic atmospheric conditions. Results of this realistic reference run were compared to runs with modified meteorological forcing conditions and river runoff.From these simulations, it is apparent that processes other than major Baltic inflows have the potential to alter the reproduction volume of Baltic cod. Low near-surface air temperatures in the North Sea, the Skagerrak/Kattegat area and in the western Baltic influence the water mass properties (high oxygen solubility). Eastward oriented transports of these well-oxygenated highly saline water masses may have a significant positive impact on the Baltic cod reproduction volume in the Bornholm Basin.Finally, we analysed how large scale and local atmospheric forcing conditions are related to the identified major processes affecting the reproduction volume.     

The future for in‐vehicle information systems: The technology and its impacts

In‐vehicle information has an important social role to play in improving the efficiency and safety of travel by all modes. In this review, three generations of system are identified. The first generation consists of simple in‐vehicle units relying heavily on external data. The second generation has more sophisticated in‐vehicle units with colour TFT screens and DVD players for maps and entertainment. The third generation again makes use of external data, using the mobile phone network to download map sections and other data as and when required, thereby obviating the need for beacons and map CDs. For locationing, GPS (and/or Galileo, the European version of GPS) remains the favoured technology. Portable devices offering multi‐modal information could improve inter‐modal transport efficiency.     

Optimizing shipping company operations using business process modelling

In order to identify the elements constituting quality in services, a business process modelling methodology has been applied in the case of a Greek liner shipping company. The company operations have been identified and analysed in order to assess the complete performance of service elements and thereafter identify how to match the service performance against the user requirements. A liner container service within Europe has to compete with the road transport which, in many cases, is an alternative to the sea transportation and not complementary to it. Thus, not only the ship has to be envisaged when aiming to improve quality in services but also the whole chain, namely port authorities, land transportation enterprises, subcontractors, agents, charterers and others. A set of potential improvements within this framework are thus suggested and time and cost (examined in a specific voyage scenario) are measured before and after the implementation of these measures. Very large time and cost savings are observed after the application of the technology improvements, allowing, in fact, the shipping company to even increase the number of round trips per year in the examined route. This indicates that very large benefits can be drawn by analysing and critically adjusting business processes in modern shipping companies.     

Maritime security in the European Union—empirical findings on financial implications for port facilities

To address the maritime security issue, the IMO Diplomatic Conference adopted in December 2002 the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code. The European Union fully agreed with its contents; Regulation (EC) No. 725/2004 transposes in Community Law the associated rules, which came into force on 1 July 2004. Interesting questions from an EU-policy point of view are then: What are the additional costs associated with the implementation of security regulations by port facilities (here in particular terminals) in EU-member states? Moreover, how are these additional costs being recovered by port facilities? Another inter-related question is: are there any subsidies involved in the cost recovery? The present paper addresses these questions with the presentation of the main results of an explorative empirical study on maritime security-related costs and their financing in EU-member states. Furthermore, a number of topics are recommended for further study on maritime security costs and financing and associated (EU) regulations.     

On the feasibility of the optical steering wheel sensor: Modeling and control

This paper discusses the development of a system model for the wireless steering wheel angle sensor and steering wheel system for the evaluation of the steer by wire system in a vehicle dynamic system. The steering wheel sensor is a wireless, contact-less sensor utilizing an optical medium for angle detection. The optical medium is operated based on a photodiode and photo-detector head. A reflecting disc or code-wheel, working similar to a compact disc, is used to reflect the light from the photodiode back to the photo-detector. The beam is reflected based on the content in the reflective disc to measure the relative angle through a micro-controller. The proposed wireless steering sensor and steer by wire system is modeled using the Matlab/Simulink and their performance is investigated to evaluate the steering response, vehicle dynamics, and steering feel of the system. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed system is discussed based on the developed model and simulation results.     

Modelling rain effects on risk‐taking behaviours of multi‐user classes in road networks with uncertainty

This paper proposes a new travel time reliability‐based traffic assignment model to investigate the rain effects on risk‐taking behaviours of different road users in networks with day‐to‐day demand fluctuations and variations in travel time. A generalized link travel time function is used to capture the rain effects on vehicle travel times and road conditions. This function is further incorporated into daily demand variations to investigate those travel time variations arising from demand uncertainty and rain condition. In view of these rain effects, road users' perception errors on travel times and risk‐taking behaviours on path choices are incorporated in the proposed model with the use of a logit‐based stochastic user equilibrium framework. This new model is formulated as a variational inequality problem in terms of path flows. A numerical example is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model for assessment of the rain effects on road networks with uncertainty.     

需求随机条件下运输问题的机会约束规划模型研究

在传统运输问题的研究中,供应和需要都是确定的,然而在实际中,运输过程中的各个环节相当复杂,物资供应量和市场需要都具有不确定性。针对这种不确定因素,运用随机机会约束规划的理论方法,建立在随机环境中运输问题的机会约束规划模型,结合神经网络和遗传算法,设计适用于此条件的混合智能算法来求解。通过实例的计算和分析,显示该模型不论在计算随机运输问题的过程中,还是其结果的准确性上均具有较强的实践意义。     

Confidence bounds on structural reliability estimations for offshore platforms

Second-order estimates to measure platform reliability are generated and used to provide an additional space to select safety margins appropriate to the owner's perception or for risk-averse managers. The aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the parameters of an offshore platform are explicitly considered in the reliability analysis and the platform structural reliability becomes a random variable, assessing then the beneficial effects of a reduction on these uncertainties. One of these benefits is for risk-aversive managers who often demand additional room to make conservative decisions regarding reliability estimations. Proposed here is a procedure to generate the frequency diagram of platform reliability with the use of confidence bounds to support reliability and cost decisions based on percentiles instead of mean values. The concepts are illustrated through a typical offshore platform in Mexico. The frequency diagram of the platform reliability index is built for several alternative designs and three levels of epistemic uncertainty. The results may be applied for decision making on new designs and also on the assessment and optimal inspection, retrofit, and decommissioning of existing platforms.