Investment strategies in market uncertainty

The nature of the global economy is one of dynamic change. Shipping is a service industry with its demand related to changes in international trade levels and patterns. As a consequence shipping is subject to sometimes unpredictable swings in demand so that the operator is required to make strategic planning decisions while navigating through boom or bust environments. While boom economies generate rising freight rates which are welcomed and encourage investment, ship operators may also have to face falling freight demand and declining freight rates that may have significant impact on profitability, often falling to uneconomic levels for extended periods. In such a period of uncertainty and declining profitability management will make operational decisions to reduce costs. However, shipping lines operate in a market environment so any decisions made to rationalize the trade may have significant long-term competitive implications. For example, traditional micro economic theory might suggest that the prudent strategy to adopt would be to close down the operation and reopen when the market conditions improve. In a world of certainty or when costs of taking this action are zero, this would be a valid strategy. However, because of fear of competitors taking up a line's market share if the shipping company exits, even temporarily, this strategy cannot be valued simply in terms of shut-down and start-up costs. A further consideration is the fact that standard capital budgeting techniques, such as Net Present Value (NPV), cannot incorporate the flexibility to respond to new information and strategic responses explicitly into their investment analysis. This paper will demonstrate the use of Real Option Analysis (ROA) to provide guidelines for decisions about closing operations in adverse market conditions.     

不同剂量硒对老年大鼠心肌构筑影响的形态学观察

本文报告了不同剂量硒对喂养22月增龄大鼠心肌构筑的形态学影响。低硒饲料（含Se0.887μmol/L）组大鼠心肌细胞萎缩变细,间质结缔组织增生,线粒体（Mi）增生,部分Mi肿胀、嵴走向紊乱、溶解、空泡化;M线不清或消失,肌浆网扩张。富硒饲料（含Se6.337μmol/L）组大鼠心肌细胞病变明显改善。上述病变显著减轻的机理可能与硒提高谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶（CSHpx）活性,以对抗过氧化损伤有关。     

The coastal edge of the Northeast Water polynya in spring 1993

Multidisciplinary, marine ecological observations were conducted at the shallow water edge of the Northeast Water in June, 1993. Although variable in size and shape, a small polynya was constantly present at Eskimonaes, at the fast-ice edge of Ingolfsfjord. A shallow stratified layer developed at the water sufface at negative water and air temperatures—an effect of sea ice melting in cold water early in the season. Nutrients were recorded in considerable quantities, although by mid July NO₃ had become depleted. The chlorophyll and phytoplankton maxima at 8–12 m depth had peak values of 2 mg chl a m⁻³, typical for Arctic algal blooms. The phytoplankton included over 90 species and was dominated by the Fragillariopsis group. Zooplankton was poor in biomass and density, but over 23 taxa were found, with the copepods Oithona similis and Pseudocalanus acuspes being numerically dominant. Sedimentation was approximately 0.2 g dry weight m⁻² d⁻¹ and suspended matter concentrations ranged from 4 to 19 mg l⁻¹. The benthos was represented by hard bottom forms only, with a surprisingly dense cover of macrophytes. Juvenile sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis), brittle stars (Ophiocten sericeum) and amphipods were dominant. Higher trophic levels were represented by benthic feeders, such as eiders and walruses. The area observed was more similar to high Arctic fjord ecosystems than to the offshore central Northeast Water polynya.     

Reliable container line supply chains

Container line supply chains, based on a near-frictionless international transport belief, have contributed to economic prosperity and also rendered themselves uniquely vulnerable to various risks. 9/11 terrorists attacks, the lock-out of American West Ports and the global breakout of SARS disease have gradually shown that a) the safety and reliability in the chains are facing an unprecedented challenge and b) traditional engineeringbased risk assessment methods are inadequate to deal with the threats from variational environments, especially in the era of terrorism rampancy. The purpose of this paper is, therefore, to develop a conceptual risk assessment model for container line supply chains based on a modified Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) methodology that takes risks from vulnerability rather than only hazards into account. It gives particular emphasis on the analysis of the threats with a high level of uncertainty from both safety and economic viewpoints. The advantages of the vulnerability-based risk analysis approach to the hazard-based one are clarified and both engineering-based and managerial risk assessments are also discussed.     

德国铁路电力机车动车概况

简要介绍德国铁路现有电力机车动车的各种系列、数量和主要改进.     

Valuation of externalities through neo-classical methods by including institutional variables

Externalities are uncompensated influences that are not expressed in a market but that affect the production possibilities or the welfare level of third parties. An example is the noise pollution in airport areas. Although air transport is an important source of economic growth and employment in many countries, the social and environmental problems connected with this sector are rising rapidly. Consequently, airports are becoming a matter of concern to many politicians. On what kind of values should they base their decisions as to further growth or consolidation of the current situation? In this paper we discuss two approaches, one based on mainstream, neo-classical, economics, and one based on institutional approaches, more in particular new institutional economics, which can be seen as a development complementary to the mainstream.     

Eddies around Madagascar — The retroflection re-considered

The Agulhas Current with its retroflection and attendant eddy-shedding is the cause of some of the greatest mesoscale variability in the ocean. This paper considers the area to the south and east of Madagascar, which provides some of the source waters of the Agulhas Current, and examines the propagating sea surface height signals in altimetry and output from a numerical model, OCCAM. Both show bands of variability along the axis of the East Madagascar Current (EMC) and along a zonal band near 25°S. Sequences of images plus associated temperature data suggest that a number of westward-propagating eddies are present in this zonal band. The paper then focuses on the region to the south of the island, where ocean colour and infra-red imagery are evocative of an East Madagascar Retroflection. The synthesis of data analysed in this paper, however, shows that remotely observed features in this area can be explained by anticyclonic eddies moving westward through the region, and this explanation is consistent with numerical model output and the trajectories of drifting buoys.     

Second-order perturbation added mass fluctuation on vertical vibration of tension leg platforms

Total motion in waves can be considered as a superposition of the motion of the body in still water and the forces on the restrained body. In this study the effect of added mass fluctuation on vertical vibration of tension leg platforms (TLP) in the case of vibration in still water for both free and forced vibration subjected to axial load at the top of the leg is presented. This effect is more important when the amplitude of vibration is large. Also this is important in fatigue life study of tethers. The structural model used here is very simple. Perturbation method is used to formulate and solve the problem. First- and second-order perturbations are used to solve the free and forced vibrations, respectively.     

短波收信天线交换系统的初步设计

根据短波通信业务对收信天线交换的发展需求，简要介绍了短波收信天线交换系统的功能与结构，并对系统的功能模块进行了初步设计。