A system dynamics approach to land use / transportation system performance modeling Part II: Application

This paper presents a system dynamics approach to simultaneous land use/transportation system performance modeling. A model is designed based on the causality functions and feedback loop structure between a large number of physical, socioeconomic, and policy variables. The model system consists of 7 sub‐models: population, migration of population, household, job growth‐employment‐land availability, housing development, travel demand, and traffic congestion level. The model is formulated in DYNAMO simulation language, and tested on a data set from Montgomery County, MD. In Part I: Methodology, the overall approach and the structure of the model system is discussed and the causal‐loop diagrams and major equations are presented. In Part II: Application, the model is calibrated and tested with data from Montgomery County, MD. Least square method and overall system behavior are used to estimate the model parameters. The model is fitted with the 1970–80 data and validated with the 1980–1990 data. Robustness and sensitivities with respect to input parameters such as birth rate or regional economy growth are analyzed. The model performance as a policy analysis tool is also examined by predicting the year by year impacts of highway capacity expansion on land use and transportation system performance. While this is a first attempt in using dynamic system simulation modeling in simultaneous treatment of land use and transportation system interactions, and model development and application are limited to some extent due to data availability, the results clearly indicate that the proposed method is a promising approach in dealing with complex urban land use/transportation modeling     

Large-scale road network vulnerability analysis: a sensitivity analysis based approach

Traditionally, an assessment of transport network vulnerability is a computationally intensive operation. This article proposes a sensitivity analysis-based approach to improve computational efficiency and allow for large-scale applications of road network vulnerability analysis. Various vulnerability measures can be used with the proposed method. For illustrative purposes, this article adopts the relative accessibility index (AI), which follows the Hansen integral index, as the network vulnerability measure for evaluating the socio-economic effects of link (or road segment) capacity degradation or closure. Critical links are ranked according to the differences in the AIs between normal and degraded networks. The proposed method only requires a single computation of the network equilibrium problem. The proposed technique significantly reduces computational burden and memory storage requirements compared with the traditional approach. The road networks of the Sioux Falls city and the Bangkok metropolitan area are used to demonstrate the applicability and efficiency of the proposed method. Network manager(s) or transport planner(s) can use this approach as a decision support tool for identifying critical links in road networks. By improving these critical links or constructing new bypass roads (or parallel paths) to increase capacity redundancy, the overall vulnerability of the networks can be reduced.     

基于SVM的隧道衬砌空洞填充物雷达图像识别研究北大核心CSCD

衬砌背后空洞及其填充物对隧道结构安全具有重要影响,开展空洞探测识别对于结构安全评估和病害处置具有重要意义。首先采用室内试验和FDTD正演模拟相结合的方法,获得了空洞内填充空气、水、干砂、湿砂条件下的雷达图谱数据,并对不同填充物波形规律进行对比分析;然后,基于支持向量机算法对波形特征进行提取和分类识别,建立了一种空洞填充物的人工智能辨识方法。研究结果表明,采用傅里叶变换前的平均值、方差、平均绝对离差和傅里叶变换后的最大幅度值max(fft(X))四个统计量作为支持向量机的识别特征,可以有效区分出衬砌背后填充物的六种类型;当采取单一倾向数据时,识别准确率较好,六种物质二分类问题准确率均可以达到90%以上。     

水平小净距隧道中夹岩安全系数法研究与应用北大核心CSCD

中夹岩柱是小净距隧道围岩稳定控制的关键部位,判别中夹岩的安全性是工程设计和施工过程中的重难点。文章通过分析不同围岩级别、埋深情况下中夹岩的破坏模式,建立Ⅳ级围岩条件下水平小净距隧道中夹岩力学分析模型,并确定中夹岩破裂面位置。根据中夹岩上部滑块体形状的不同分为两种情况,通过边坡稳定性原理、极限平衡假设及普氏压力拱理论推导中夹岩上部滑块体的抗滑力、下滑力以及安全系数的计算公式,从而建立起评判中夹岩安全性的安全系数法,并结合数值模拟对其进行验证。将经验证后的安全系数法应用于某实际隧道工程,判断其中夹岩安全性,得出该隧道中夹岩破坏临界厚度为6 m,进而对6 m以下的中夹岩使用锚杆进行加固。     

Carsharing in Switzerland: identifying new markets by predicting membership based on data on supply and demand

Transportation - This study examines the relationship between the supply and demand variables that determine the probability of individuals joining a carsharing organization, using data from the...     

A novel approach for systematically calibrating transport planning model systems

Calibration of a transport planning model system is a complex process. While trial-and-error methods and modelling expertise are still the backbone of calibration of transport models, analytical approaches automating the calibration process can improve the accuracy of the models. Introducing a model to guide modellers in the calibration process of large-scale transport planning model systems is the core of this study, where a systematic model for choosing the most appropriate models and parameters is discussed. The effectiveness of the proposed model is investigated by comparing three scenarios which are built on the Travel/Activity Scheduler for Household Agents model as a large-scale agent-based model system.

     

The allocation of buses in heavily utilized networks with overlapping routes

Many transit systems outside North America are characterized by networks with extensively overlapping routes and buses frequently operating at, or close to, capacity. This paper addresses the problem of allocating a fleet of buses between routes in this type of system; a problem that must be solved recurrently by transit planners. A formulation of the problem is developed which recognizes passenger route choice behavior, and seeks to minimize a function of passenger wait time and bus crowding subject to constraints on the number of buses available and the provision of enough capacity on each route to carry all passengers who would select it. An algorithm is developed based on the decomposition of the problem into base allocation and surplus allocation components. The base allocation identifies a feasible solution using an (approx.) minimum number of buses. The surplus allocation is illustrated for the simple objective of minimizing the maximum crowding level on any route. The bus allocation procedure developed in this paper has been applied to part of the Cairo bus system in a completely manual procedure, and is proposed to be the central element of a short-range bus service planning process for that city.     

Experimental study of the flow induced by a vehicle fan and the effect of engine blockage in a simplified model

Fans are often tested without downstream blockage and, thus, the performance is considerably different when the fan is mounted in a vehicle as part of a cooling system and where high blockage effect is present downstream. The aim of the present work is to analyze by laser Doppler velocimetry LDV measurements the topology of the flow induced by a fan incorporated in a simplified underhood model reproducing engine blockage and to study the blockage effect of the engine positioning on the flow induced by the fan. The distance between the fan and the engine block affects the mean flow axial velocity U. The vertical velocity component W is greatly influenced by the variation of the distance between the fan and the engine block, both in magnitude and topology.     

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行程时间的不确定性是影响货运车队路径选择的一个重要因素，特别是对于要求货物准时送达的配送任务（例如商品混凝土的配送），提出了在车辆调度中考虑由拥挤路段交通流量波动引起的行程时间不确定性的方法，建立了考虑行程时间可靠性要求的车辆优化调度数学模型，给出了相应的启发式算法，通过算例介绍了该模型和算法的应用。结果表明配送总成本随行程时间可靠性要求的提高而增加。     

重庆市国省干线公路灾害调查与特征分析

在对重庆市国省干线公路历史灾害进行了全面调查的基础上,从自然气候、工程地质、灾害类别、灾害分布、灾害特征等方面对重庆市干线公路的灾害特性进行了分析.