Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.     

Experimental study on reflection coefficient of curved perforated plate

A set of experiments is carried out in a towing tank to study the effects of the curvature of perforated plates on the wave reflection coefficient (C _r ). The curvature of a perforated plate can be changed by rotating a reference perforated plate aboutits origin according to the parabolic equation y=?x ². A plunger-type wave maker is used to generate regular waves. The reflection coefficients are calculated using Goda and Suzuki’s (1976) method. The results are compared with those of vertical or sloped passive wave absorbers. The comparison shows that a perforated plate with a curved profile is highly efficient in terms of reducing the wave reflection coefficient. A correlation is established to estimate the reflection coefficient of curved perforated plates as a function of both flow and geometry characteristics.     

带有挡板的注液舱室地震响应分析（英文）

In thispaper, the effects of a rigid baffle on the seismic response of liquid in a rigid cylindrical tank are evaluated. A baffle is an annular plate which supplies a kind of passive control on the effects of ground excitation. The contained liquid is assumed incompressible, inviscid and has irrotational motion. To estimate the seismic response, the method of superposition of modes has been applied. To analyze the rigid tank response, Laplace's equation is considered as the governing equation of the fluid domain, in both time and frequency domains. The boundary element method(BEM) is employed to evaluate the natural modes of liquid in a cylindrical tank. To gain this goal, the fluid domain is divided into two upper and lower parts partitioned by the baffle. Linearized kinematic and dynamic boundary conditions of the free surface of the contained liquid have been considered.     

采用CFD得到的横摇阻尼的船舶横摇分析：数值和实验研究（英文）

This study investigates the roll decay of a fishing vessel by experiments and computational fluid dynamics(CFD)simulations. A fishing vessel roll decay is tested experimentally for different initial roll angles. The roll decay is also simulated numerically by CFD simulations and is validated against the experimental results. It shows that the roll damping could be obtained by CFD with high level of accuracy. The linear and nonlinear damping terms are extracted from the CFD roll decay results and...     

Robo-Taxi service fleet sizing: assessing the impact of user trust and willingness-to-use

The first commercial fleets of Robo-Taxis will be on the road soon. Today important efforts are made to anticipate future Robo-Taxi services. Fleet size is one of the key parameters considered in the planning phase of service design and configuration. Based on multi-agent approaches, the fleet size can be explored using dynamic demand response simulations. Time and cost are the most common variables considered in such simulation approaches. However, personal taste variation can affect the demand and consequently the required fleet size. In this paper, we explore the impact of user trust and willingness-to-use on the Robo-Taxi fleet size. This research is based upon simulating the transportation system of the Rouen-Normandie metropolitan area in France using MATSim, a multi-agent activity-based simulator. A local survey is made in order to explore the variation of user trust and their willingness-to-use future Robo-Taxis according to the sociodemographic attributes. Integrating survey data in the model shows the significant importance of traveler trust and willingness-to-use varying the Robo-Taxi use and the required fleet size.

     

Risk-based maintenance and rehabilitation decisions for transportation infrastructure networks

A method for determining optimal risk-based maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) policies for transportation infrastructure is presented. The proposed policies guarantee a certain performance level across the network under a predefined level of risk. The long-term model is formulated in the Markov Decision Process framework with risk-averse actions and transitional probabilities describing the uncertainty in the deterioration process. The well known Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is used as the measure of risk. The steady-state risk-averse M&R policies are modeled assuming no budget restriction. To address the short-term resource allocation problem, two linear programming models are presented to generate network-level polices with different objectives. While the proposed methodology is general and can be used with any performance indicator, pavement roughness is used for numerical studies and an analytical expression for computing CVaR is derived.     

Mooring Damage Identification of Floating Wind Turbine Using a Non-Probabilistic Approach Under Different Environmental Conditions

This paper discusses the damage identification in the mooring line system of a floating wind turbine (FWT) exposed to various environmental loads. The proposed ...     

Telecommuting Suitability Modeling: An Approach Based on the Concept of Abstract job

A new approach to modeling telecommuting suitability is proposed in this paper. The approach, based on the concept of abstract job, can be employed to assess the level of suitability for telecommuting of the bundle of tasks comprising a job. By abstract job is meant a way of considering jobs on the basis of their elements and tasks, representing the general structure of the job. In this study, the basic tasks a job is composed of, pertaining to telecommuting suitability, are identified. To show the applicability of the approach, discrete choice models are calibrated, based on a sample of 245 employees in Tehran, Iran, indicating that from among the 6 tasks identified, 5 tasks are significantly associated with the level of telecommuting suitability.     

Calculating the return value using a mathematical model of significant wave height

This study presents a new method for calculating return values. The essence of the method is that it utilizes nonstationary data to calculate the return value for a region in the Northeast Pacific. The nonstationary data was obtained from a model which was previously developed for the behavior of the significant wave height as a function of time in the region. The method is illustrated by convolving two generalized Pareto distribution functions fitted to two parts of the model, computing a suitable extreme value from the new distribution function, and calculating the return value using this extreme value.     

Investigation of pitch motion portion in vertical response at sides of a Tension-Leg Platform

Tendons vertically moor Tension-Leg Platforms (TLPs), thus, a deep understanding of physical tendon stresses requires the determination of the total axial deformation of the tendons, which is a combination of the heave, pitch, and surging responses. The vertical motion of the lateral sides of the TLP is coupled with surge and constitutes a portion of the pitch motion. Tendons are connected to the sides of the TLP; hence, the total displacement of the lateral sides is related to the total deformation of the tendons and the total axial stress. Therefore, investigating the total vertical response at the sides of the TLP is essential. The coupling between various degrees of freedom is not considered in the Response Amplitude Operator (RAO). Therefore, in frequency domain analysis, the estimated vertical RAO is incomplete. Also, in the time domain, only the heave motion at the center of TLP is typically studied; this problem needs to be addressed. In this paper, we investigate the portion of the pitch motion in the vertical response at the sides of the TLP in both the frequency and time domains. Numerical results demonstrate a significant effect of the pitch motion in the vertical motion of the edges of the TLP in some period ranges.