Life-style and travel demand

(Added to the original text) A fundamental solution to the issue of congestion cannot be reached without addressing the question of life-style. This paper reviews the definitions of life-style found in the literature, and identifies variables that have been commonly associated with life-style. Using US consumer expenditure data, life-styles are analyzed longitudinally (examining trends during the 1953–1983 time frame) and cross-sectionally (comparing segments of the population stratified by income, life-cycle stage, and age), and likely relationships to travel behavior are noted. The usefulness of existing empirical findings to long-range forecasting is explored by speculating on shifts of behavioral units across life-style segments, and on shifts in the behavioral patterns within each life-style segment.     

A co-integration approach to forecasting container carriers’ time charter rates

A vector autoregressive model was developed for a sample of container carrier time charter rates.Although the series of time charter rates are themselves found non-stationary, thus precluding the use of manymodeling methodologies, evidence provided by co-integration tests points to the existence of stable long-termrelationships between the series. An assessment of the forecasts derived from the model suggests that the spec-ification of these long-term relationships does not improve the accuracy of long-term forecasts. These resultsare interpreted as a corroboration of the efficient market hypothesis.     

Small area estimates of daily person-miles of travel: 2001 National Household Transportation Survey

The National Household Transportation Survey (NHTS) was designed at the national level, and for most states it does not have a large enough sample to produce reliable estimates, especially for subdomains (e.g., age groups) within a state. Using the 2001 NHTS, we produced small area estimates (SAEs) of the percentage of persons among four age groups (17 or younger, 18–39, 40–54, and 55 or older) having high daily person-miles of travel (more than 87.5 miles a day, which is the 90th percentile for daily person-miles traveled) and associated prediction intervals for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The survey weighted hierarchical Bayes (Folsom et al., Proc of the Sect on Surv Res Methods of the Am Stat Assoc 371–375, 1999) small area estimation (SAE) methodology was used to produce state-level SAEs. This paper describes the methodology and shows that SAE can be an effective technique for producing reliable state-level estimates from large, national surveys like the NHTS. In particular, the prediction interval relative widths for SAEs were, on average, 31–48% narrower than the corresponding design-based confidence interval widths, whereas for small states the reduction was around 47–63%.     

Metropolitan size and the impacts of telecommuting on personal travel

Telecommuting has been proposed by policy makers as a strategy to reduce travel and emissions. In studying the metropolitan size impact of telecommuting on personal travel, this paper addresses two questions: (1) whether telecommuting is consistently a substitute or complement to travel across different MSA sizes; and (2) whether the impact of telecommuting is higher in larger MSAs where telecommuting programs and policies have been more widely adopted. Data from the 2001 and 2009 National Household Travel Surveys are used. Through a series of tests that address two possible empirical biases, we find that telecommuting consistently had a complementary effect on one-way commute trips, daily total work trips and daily total non-work trips across different MSA sizes in both 2001 and 2009. The findings suggest that policies that promote telecommuting may indeed increase, rather than decrease, people’s travel demand, regardless of the size of the MSA. This seems to contradict what telecommuting policies are designed for. In addition, model results show that the complementary impact of telecommuting on daily travel is lower in larger MSAs, in terms of both daily total work trips and daily total non-work trips.     

Shock resistance of supercharged boilers through integration with ship structure

The non-linear finite element software ABAQUS was used to simulate the dynamic response of a marine supercharged boiler when subjected to impact loading. Shock resistance was analyzed by the time-domain simulation method. After exhaustive simulations,the effect of air pressure induced by different working conditions on the shock response of a supercharged boiler was reviewed,leading to conclusions about the variability of structural response with different loading parameters. In order to simulate the real impulsive environments of supercharged boilers,the integration of equipment and ship structure was then primarily used to analyze shock response. These distinctly different equipment shock test methods,run under equivalent work conditions,were compared and the causes of discrepancy were analyzed. The main purpose of this paper is to present references for the anti-shock design of marine supercharged boilers.     

Study of station and attitude maneuver of submergence rescue vehicle

It is an important control process to operate motion of an submergence rescue vehicle(SRV). Seeing that the motion of the submergence rescue vehicle is special, it is necessary to employ non-linear predictive control system. For this reason, continuous dynamic performance of the system, the logical components and the operative restraints are expressed as the non-linear equations of state with the inequality restraints, and the model principle of hybrid system is introduced. The conclusion shows that it comes true to exactly control position and attitude of the SRV by means of non-linear model predictive control. The test in a model basin has also proved that the above methods are efficient.     

Characteristics of a bubble jet near a vertical wall

A numerical model of a coupled bubble jet and wall was built on the assumption of potential flow and calculated by the boundary integral method. A three-dimensional computing program was then developed. Starting with the basic phenomenon of the interaction between a bubble and a wall, the dynamics of bubbles near rigid walls were studied systematically with the program. Calculated results agreed well with experimental results. The relationship between the Bjerknes effect of a wall and characteristic parameters was then studied and the calculated results of various cases were compared and discussed with the Blake criterion based on the Kelvin-impulse theory. Our analyses show that the angle of the jet＇s direction and the pressure on the rigid wall have a close relationship with collapse force and the bubble＇s characteristic parameters. From this, the application range of Blake criterion can be determined. This paper aims to provide a basis for future research on the dynamics of bubbles near a wall.     

Calculation of hydrodynamics for semi-submersibles based on NURBS

Accurate hydrodynamic calculations for semi-submersibles are critical to support modern rapid exploration and extraction of ocean resources. In order to speed hydrodynamic calculations, lines modeling structures were separated into structural parts and then fitted to Non-uniform Rational B-spline （NURBS）. In this way, the bow and stern section lines were generated. Modeling of the intersections of the parts was then done with the universal modeling tool MSC.Patran. Mesh was gererated on the model in order to obtain points of intersection on the joints, and then these points were fitted to NURBS. Next, the patch representation method was adopted to generate the meshes of wetted surfaces and interior free surfaces. Velocity potentials on the surfaces were calculated separately, on basis of which the irregular frequency effect was dealt with in the calculation of hydrodynamic coefficients. Finally, the motion response of the semi-submersible was calculated, and in order to improve calculations of vertical motion, a damping term was affixed in the vertical direction. The results show that the above methods can generate fine mesh accurately representing the wetted surface of a semi-submersible and thus improve the accuracy of hydrodynamic calculations.     

The use of Risk Concept to characterize and select High Risk Vessels for ship inspections

The Paris Memorandum of Understanding (Paris MoU) has defined criteria aimed at better targeting of ships for Port State Control inspections. These criteria are mostly based on ship detentions or deficiencies. Another approach proposed in this paper is based on the concept of risk, combining in various ways the probability of the occurrence of casualties and the potential consequences of such occurrences. These measures are to help identify High Risk Vessels (HRV) and to inspect them accordingly.     

A new source number estimation method based on the beam eigenvalue

Most source number estimation methods based on the eigenvalues are decomposed by covariance matrix in MUSIC algorithm. To develop the source number estimation method which has lower signal to noise ratio and is suitable to both correlated and uncorrelated impinging signals, a new source number estimation method called beam eigenvalue method (BEM) is proposed in this paper. Through analyzing the space power spectrum and the correlation of the line array, the covariance matrix is constructed in a new way, which is decided by the line array shape when the signal frequency is given. Both of the theory analysis and the simulation results show that the BEM method can estimate the source number for correlated signals and can be more effective at lower signal to noise ratios than the normal source number estimation methods.