Effects of task complexity and time pressure on activity-travel choices: heteroscedastic logit model and activity-travel simulator experiment

This paper derives, estimates and applies a discrete choice model of activity-travel behaviour that accommodates potential effects of task complexity and time pressure on decision-making. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that both factors (task complexity and time pressure) are jointly captured in a discrete choice model. More specifically, our heteroscedastic logit model captures potential impacts of task complexity and time pressure through the scale of the utility of activity-travel options. We collect data using a novel activity-travel simulator experiment that has been specifically designed with the aim of testing our model. Results are in line with expectations, in that higher levels of task complexity and time pressure are found to result in a smaller scale of utility. In other words, higher levels of task complexity and time pressure lead to more random choice behaviour and as a consequence to less pronounced differences in choice probabilities between alternatives. An empirical illustration suggests that choice probability-differences between models that do and those that do not capture these effects, can be very substantial; this in turn suggests that failing to capture the effects of task complexity and time pressure in discrete choice models of activity travel decision-making might lead to serious bias in forecasts of the effects of transport policies.     

The digital revolution and worthwhile use of travel time: implications for appraisal and forecasting

Savings in travel time and more specifically their monetary value typically constitute the main benefit to justify major investment in transport schemes. However, worthwhile use of travel time is an increasingly prominent phenomenon of the digital age. Accordingly, questions are increasingly being asked regarding whether values of time used by countries around the world based on their appraisal approaches are too high. This paper offers the most comprehensive examination of our theoretical and empirical understandings of international appraisal approaches and how they account for worthwhile use of travel time. It combines the economics perspective with wider social science insight and reaches the conclusion that past revolutions in transport that have made longer and quicker journeys possible are now joined by a digital revolution that is reducing the disutility of travel time. This revolution offers potential economic benefit that comes at a fraction of the cost of major investments in transport that are predicated on saving travel time. The paper highlights the challenges faced in both current and indeed potential alternative future appraisal approaches. Such challenges are rooted in the difficulty of measuring time use and productivity with sufficient accuracy and over time to credibly account for how travel time factors into the economic outcomes from social and working practices in the knowledge economy. There is a need for further research to: establish how improvements in the opportunities for and the quality of worthwhile use of travel time impact on the valuation of travel time savings for non-business travel; improve our understanding of how productive use of time impacts on the valuation of time savings for business travellers; and estimate how these factors have impacted on the demand for different modes of travel.     

Integrated modeling of urban hierarchy and transportation network planning

A major problem addressed during the preparation of spatial development plans relates to the accessibility to facilities where services of general interest such as education, health care, public safety, and justice are offered to the population. In this context, planners typically aim at redefining the level of hierarchy to assign to the urban centers of the region under study (with a class of facilities associated with each level of hierarchy) and redesigning the region’s transportation network. Traditionally, these two subjects – urban hierarchy and transportation network planning – have been addressed separately in the scientific literature. This paper presents an optimization model that simultaneously determines which urban centers and which network links should be promoted to a new level of hierarchy so as to maximize accessibility to all classes of facilities. The possible usefulness of the model for solving real-world problems of integrated urban hierarchy and transportation network planning is illustrated through an application to the Centro Region of Portugal.     

Managing passenger behavioral intention: an integrated framework for service quality,satisfaction, perceived value,and switching barriers

This paper seeks to improve our understanding of passengers’ behavioral intention by proposing an integrated framework from the attitudinal perspective. According to the literature in marketing research, we establish a causal relationship model that considers “service quality-satisfaction-behavioral intentions” paradigm, perceived value theory, and switching barrier theory. Exploring passengers’ behavioral intention from satisfaction and perceived value help to understand how passengers are attracted by the company, while switching barriers assist in realizing how passengers are “locked” into a relationship with the current company. Furthermore, in order to capture the nature of service quality, we adopt a hierarchical factor structure which serves service quality as the higher-order factor. In this study, coach industry is selected as our research subject. The empirical results, as hypothesized, show that all causal relationships are statistically significant, and perceived value us the most important predictor of satisfaction and passengers’ behavioral intention. In conclusion, the managerial implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

The cost saving potential of carsharing in a US context

Carsharing is a vehicle sharing service for those with occasional need of private transportation. Transportation planners are beginning to see great potential for carsharing in helping to create a more diversified and sustainable transport system. While it has grown quickly in the US in recent years, it is still far from the level where it can deliver significant aggregate benefits. A key element to the potential growth of carsharing is its ability to provide cost savings to those who adopt it in favor of vehicle ownership. This research seeks to quantify these potential cost savings. The costs of carsharing and vehicle ownership are compared based on actual vehicle usage patterns from a large survey of San Francisco Bay Area residents. The results of this analysis show that a significant minority of Bay Area households own a vehicle with a usage pattern that carsharing could accommodate at a lower cost. Further research is required to indentify how these cost savings translate to the adoption of carsharing.     

An analysis of the determinants of children’s weekend physical activity participation

This paper examines the out-of-home, weekend, time-use patterns of children aged 5–17 years, with a specific emphasis on their physical activity participation. The impact of several types of factors, including individual and household demographics, neighborhood demographics, built environment characteristics, and activity day variables, on physical activity participation is analyzed using a joint nested multiple discrete–continuous extreme value-binary choice model. The sample for analysis is drawn from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey. The model developed in the paper can be used to assess the impacts of changing demographics and built environment characteristics on children’s physical activity levels.     

Assessing asymmetric response effect of behavioral intention to service quality in an integrated psychological decision-making process model of intercity bus passengers: a case of Taiwan

This study introduces the concept of loss aversion to consumer behavioral intention at the personal psychological level to develop an integrative structural equation model for analyzing traveler psychological decision making. In this model, the relationship between behavioral intention and service quality is a non-smooth function based on the theory of loss aversion. The expectation service quality in the SERVQUAL model proposed by Parasuraman, Zeithaml, and Berry (PZB) serves as a reference point. This model can be applied to analyze the effect of non-smooth response of behavioral intention to service quality in a traveler psychological decision-making process model. Intercity travel among cities in Taiwan is used as an empirical example. Data were gathered in cities in Taiwan via a questionnaire survey, and the model was tested using path analysis performed by LISREL. The empirical result shows that all causal relationships are statistically significant. Service quality loss influences repurchase intention more than does Service quality gain. Finally, this study concludes by discussing managerial implications and suggesting directions for future research.

Urban form,travel time,and cost relationships with tour complexity and mode choice

The primary purpose of this study was to investigate how relative associations between travel time, costs, and land use patterns where people live and work impact modal choice and trip chaining patterns in the Central Puget Sound (Seattle) region. By using a tour-based modeling framework and highly detailed land use and travel data, this study attempts to add detail on the specific land use changes necessary to address different types of travel, and to develop a comparative framework by which the relative impact of travel time and urban form changes can be assessed. A discrete choice modeling framework adjusted for demographic factors and assessed the relative effect of travel time, costs, and urban form on mode choice and trip chaining characteristics for the three tour types. The tour based modeling approach increased the ability to understand the relative contribution of urban form, time, and costs in explaining mode choice and tour complexity for home and work related travel. Urban form at residential and employment locations, and travel time and cost were significant predictors of travel choice. Travel time was the strongest predictor of mode choice while urban form the strongest predictor of the number of stops within a tour. Results show that reductions in highway travel time are associated with less transit use and walking. Land use patterns where respondents work predicted mode choice for mid day and journey to work travel.

The impact of high-speed technology on railway demand

This paper estimates a passenger railway demand function to analyse effects arising from the introduction and use of high-speed technologies. The paper reports estimates of demand elasticities with respect to price, income, quality of service and a range of exogenous characteristics. The results show that travel time savings from conventional high-speed technology have a larger impact on passenger demand than tilting train technology. The introduction of conventional high-speed technology is associated with an 8% increase in passenger railway demand. Increasing the use of either type of high-speed technology appears to induce small positive effects on demand beyond those obtained from usual traffic density increases on non-high-speed existing technology.