基于组合预测模型的世界海运周转量预测分析

世界海运周转量是衡量未来航运市场运力需求的直接体现,在确定航运市场和船舶市场的发展趋势方面具有关键作用。针对世界海运周转量受到众多复杂因素影响的现实,基于传统的单个预测方法,分别采用时间序列、灰色系统、神经网络方法对世界海运周转量进行预测,然后再对单个预测方法进行加权组合,建立组合预测模型进行海运周转量的预测,预测结果表明:组合预测模型能够得到更加可靠的结果。     

海底管线的地球物理探测技术探讨

从应用原理、工程实例、应用效果等方面分析了目前国内外常用的海底管线探测的技术方法,并且探讨了各种方法的优缺点及适用条件,总结了海底管线探测现状及发展趋势.     

大直径PHC桩竖向承载力分布的试验研究

结合某跨海大桥桩基试验项目,对4组大直径PHC桩进行了竖向承载力静载试验,并通过桩身预埋的应变式钢筋计测试桩身轴力分布.试验结果表明,随着桩端土层刚度的提高,单桩极限承载力也将进一步增大,因此对于大直径PHC桩,也应选择较好土层作为持力层;随着桩顶荷载的不断增大,桩端阻力分担荷载所占的比例也逐渐增大,表明大直径PHC桩呈端承摩擦桩的承载性状;对于桩端持力层较好,而上覆软弱土层较厚的大直径PHC桩,尚应考虑上部土层侧摩阻力软化现象的影响;尽管大直径PHC桩桩身刚度较大,但在设计工作荷载下,此次试验的桩顶实测沉降主要由桩身压缩引起.     

Effects of small-scale turbulence on the growth of two diatoms of different size in a phosphorus-limited medium

The effect of turbulence on the nutrient flux towards osmotrophic cells is predicted to be size dependent. This should translate into growth. We experimentally followed and modelled the growth of two marine diatoms of different size (Thalassiosira pseudonana, 6 μm in diameter and Coscinodiscus sp., ca. 109 μm in diameter) under still water and turbulent conditions, using a shaker table. Experiments were done with phosphorus-limited cultures and lasted for ca. 5 days. Turbulence enhanced the growth of Coscinodiscus sp. in agreement with theory but not the growth of T. pseudonana, which was actually slightly lower under turbulence. At the end of the experiments there were about 1.7 times as many Coscinodiscus sp. cells in the turbulent treatment than in the still treatment, while for T. pseudonana almost the same cell concentration was found in both conditions. In addition, the Coscinodiscus sp. cells growing under still conditions presented a higher specific alkaline phosphatase activity than those growing in turbulence which indicates a higher need for phosphorus in the still cultures. A simple dynamic model, based on Michaelis–Menten nutrient uptake kinetics, needed nearly no optimisation other than using observed initial conditions of phosphate and cell concentrations. The model showed how an increased nutrient flux towards the cells translates non-linearly into cell growth, most likely by affecting the half-saturation constant (K_M). However, since Coscinodiscus sp. experienced significant mortality and cells partially settled to the bottom of the containers, unequivocal support for the size-dependent effect of turbulence on nutrient uptake will require further experiments and more sophisticated modelling. The mechanisms to connect an increased nutrient flux towards cells with population growth and whether this process is size dependent are important in parameterizing the effects of turbulence on marine plankton in coupled physical–biological models.     

Lights, camera and acoustics: Assessing macrobenthic communities at a dredged material disposal site off the North East coast of the UK

This study presents the results of a trial assessment based on a combination of sampling techniques at a dredged material disposal site located off the North East coast of the UK, over 2001 to 2004. The site was surveyed with a high-resolution sidescan sonar system producing a mosaic with 100% coverage of the survey area. Benthic communities and sediments were ground-truthed using a Hamon grab with a video camera. Additionally, the area was also sampled in 2003 with a Sediment Profile Imaging (SPI) camera, which complemented other techniques by providing in situ information on sediment quality, and biogenic activities. An assessment is made of the benefits of combining the results from conventional methods, principally using grab samples, with those from acoustic techniques and optical imaging devices to determine seafloor and macrobenthic conditions. This information has the potential to contribute to the enhancement of routine monitoring programmes within UK waters.     

皂河三线船闸闸室墙倒角砼表面质量控制措施

在倒角斜面砼的施工中如何降低砼表面的蜂窝、麻面、砂斑、砂线，一直是工程施工的一个难题。通过对皂河三线船闸闸室墙倒角施工工艺的改进，斜面砼表面质量得到了较好的控制。     

考虑土体小应变特性的浅埋暗挖地铁隧道施工扰动影响的数值分析

借助霍耳局部应变传感器和非接触传感器,对传统三轴试验进行改进,研究北京典型土体的小应变刚度及其随应变变化的规律;通过引入二次函数形式表述的应变历史,分析小应变刚度的变化,采用修正Hardin-Drnevich模型表征小应变力学特性。以浅埋暗挖工法地铁隧道下穿北辰桥为例进行既有桥梁沉降的数值模拟,并与实际监测结果进行对比。结果表明:运用考虑小应变特性的模型得到的预测值与监测结果较为吻合,与常规模型的预测结果相比,预测精度最大提高26%。     

Achieving an ASEAN single shipping market: shipping and logistics firms’ perspective

ABSTRACT

To establish an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Single Shipping Market (ASSM) is an important part of ASEAN governments’ overall plan to achieve an ASEAN Economic Community by 2015. It is expected that a single shipping market will improve the region’s logistics performance and international competitiveness. To achieve this vision, however, the ASEAN countries need to remove any remaining barriers to logistics performance. In this light, the objective of this paper is to identify these barriers and assess their effects on the logistics performance of shipping and logistics firms based in ASEAN countries. Using a questionnaire-based survey, the study revealed several barriers affecting their logistics performance with varying significance among these countries. Unless these barriers from the perspective of the industry are removed, the ability of the shipping and logistics industry to benefit from a liberalized market would be limited. These perceived barriers are examined in detail and strategies to address them are proposed. The ASEAN experience is applicable to similar countries in the process of integrating their international shipping sector as well as contributes to the understanding of the different barriers and how these barriers can affect the logistics performance of shipping and logistics companies.     

Climate Change and Coastal Management Decisions: Insights from Christchurch Bay,UK

The integration of climate change adaptation considerations into management of the coast poses major challenges for decision makers. This article reports on a case study undertaken in Christchurch Bay, UK, examining local capacity for strategic response to climate risks, with a particular focus on issues surrounding coastal defense. Drawing primarily on qualitative research with local and regional stakeholders, the analysis identifies fundamental disjunctures between generic concerns over climate change and the adaptive capacity of local management institutions. Closely linked with issues of scale, the problems highlighted here are likely to have broad and continuing relevance for future coastal management elsewhere.     

Inland boundary determinations for coastal management purposes—an ecological systems approach to requirements of the federal coastal zone management Act of 1972

Abstract

An analysis of ecological systems that both sustain and are sustained by coastal waters provides the key to a biophysical procedure for delineating inland coastal management boundaries. This analysis entails two basic tasks: (1) mapping the ecosystems that compose coastal waters and adjacent areas, and (2) charting sustaining flows among these systems. The resulting boundary encompasses all environments of coastal waters (subaqueous areas containing a measurable quantity of seawater) and all shore‐lands (either emergent or submergent environments that interchange sustaining materials, energy, or biota with coastal waters). As this biophysical procedure depends on the precise location of, and functional transfers among, coastal ecosystems, it provides a means both for assessing the consequences of human actions and for establishing a landward boundary for a management program. Alternative boundaries not based on locations and operations of coastal ecosystems would probably be either arbitrary or of undue extent, nor would such “alternative”; boundaries be an integral part of an ongoing management process.