Verification and validation study of URANS simulations for an axial waterjet propelled large high-speed ship

The accurate prediction of waterjet propulsion using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is of interest for performance analyses of existing waterjet designs as well as for improvement and design optimization of new waterjet propulsion systems for high-speed marine vehicles. The present work is performed for three main purposes: (1) to investigate the capability of a URANS flow solver, CFDSHIP-IOWA, for the accurate simulation of waterjet propelled ships, including waterjet–hull interactions; (2) to carry out detailed verification and validation (V&V) analysis; and (3) to identify optimization opportunities for intake duct shape design. A concentrated effort is applied to V&V work and performance analysis of waterjet propelled simulations which form the focus of this paper. The joint high speed sealift design (JHSS), which is a design concept for very large high-speed ships operating at transit speeds of at least 36 knots using four axial flow waterjets, is selected as the initial geometry for the current work and subsequent optimization study. For self-propelled simulations, the ship accelerates until the resistance equals the prescribed thrust and added tow force, and converges to the self propulsion point (SPP). Quantitative V&V studies are performed on both barehull and waterjet appended designs, with corresponding experimental fluid dynamics (EFD) data from 1/34 scale model testing. Uncertainty assessments are performed on iterative convergence and grid size. As a result, the total resistance coefficient for the barehull case and SPP for the waterjet propelled case are validated at the average uncertainty intervals of 7.0 and 1.1%D, respectively. Predictions of CFD computations capture the general trend of resistance over the speed range of 18–42 knots, and show reasonable agreement with EFD with average errors of 1.8 and 8.0%D for the barehull and waterjet cases, respectively. Furthermore, results show that URANS is able to accurately predict the major propulsion related features such as volume flow rate, inlet wake fraction, and net jet thrust with an accuracy of ~9%D. The flow feature details inside the duct and interference of the exit jets are qualitatively well-predicted as well. It is found that there are significant losses in inlet efficiency over the speed range; hence, one objective for subsequent optimization studies could be maximizing the inlet efficiency. Overall, the V&V work indicates that the present approach is an efficient tool for predicting the performance of waterjet propelled JHSS ships and paves the way for future optimization work. The main objective of the optimization will be reduction of powering requirements by increasing the inlet efficiency through modification of intake duct shape.     

European advanced driver training programs: Reasons for optimism

Post license advanced driver training programs in the US and early programs in Europe have often failed to accomplish their stated objectives because, it is suspected, that drivers gain self perceived driving skills that exceed their true skills—leading to increased post training crashes. The consensus from the evaluation of countless advanced driver training programs is that these programs are a detriment to safety, especially for novice, young, male drivers.Some European countries including Sweden, Finland, Austria, Luxembourg, and Norway, have continued to refine these programs, with an entirely new training philosophy emerging around 1990. These ‘post-renewal’ programs have shown considerable promise, despite various data quality and availability concerns. These programs share in common a focus on teaching drivers about self assessment and anticipation of risk, as opposed to teaching drivers how to master driving at the limits of tire adhesion. The programs focus on factors such as self actualization and driving discipline, rather than low level mastery of skills. Drivers are meant to depart these renewed programs with a more realistic assessment of their driving abilities. These renewed programs require considerable specialized and costly infrastructure including dedicated driver training facilities with driving modules engineered specifically for advanced driver training and highly structured curriculums. They are conspicuously missing from both the US road safety toolbox and academic literature. Given the considerable road safety concerns associated with US novice male drivers in particular, these programs warrant further attention.This paper reviews the predominant features and empirical evidence surrounding post licensing advanced driver training programs focused on novice drivers. A clear articulation of differences between the renewed and current US advanced driver training programs is provided. While the individual quantitative evaluations range from marginally to significantly effective in reducing novice driver crash risk, they have been criticized for evaluation deficiencies ranging from small sample sizes to confounding variables to lack of exposure metrics. Collectively, however, the programs sited in the paper suggest at least a marginally positive effect that needs to be validated with further studies. If additional well controlled studies can validate these programs, a pilot program in the US should be considered.     

Income-contingent user preferences in policy evaluation: application and discussion based on multi-agent transport simulations

Standard economic policy evaluation allows the realization of projects if the aggregated economic benefit outweighs their costs. The use of one single aggregated welfare measure for evaluating and ranking projects has often been criticized for many reasons. A major issue is that differentiated effects on individuals or subgroups of the population are not taken into consideration. This leads to the need for transport planning tools that provide additional information for politicians and decision makers. The microscopic multi-agent simulation approach presented in this paper is capable of helping to design better solutions in such situations. In particular, it is shown that the inclusion of individual income in utility calculations allows a better understanding of problems linked to public acceptance. First, individual income-contingent utility functions are estimated based on survey data in order to describe human mobility behavior. Subsequently, using the MATSim framework, the implementation is tested in a test scenario. Furthermore, and going beyond Franklin (2006), it is shown that the approach works in a large-scale real world example. Based on a hypothetical speed increase of public transit, effects on the welfare distribution of the population are discussed. It is shown that the identification of winners and losers seems to be quite robust. However, results indicate that a conversion or aggregation of individual utility changes for welfare analysis is highly dependent on the functional form of the utility functions as well as on the choice of the aggregation procedure.     

Estimating a model of dynamic activity generation based on one-day observations: Method and results

In this paper we develop and explore an approach to estimate dynamic models of activity generation on one-day travel-diary data. Dynamic models predict multi-day activity patterns of individuals taking into account dynamic needs as well as day-varying preferences and time-budgets. We formulate an ordered-logit model of dynamic activity-agenda-formation decisions and show how one-day observation probabilities can be derived from the model as a function of the model’s parameters and, with that, how parameters can be estimated using standard loglikelihood estimation. A scale parameter cannot be identified because information on within-person variability is lacking in one-day data. An application of the method to data from a national travel survey illustrates the method. A test on simulated data indicates that, given a pre-set scale, the parameters can be identified and that estimates are robust for a source of heterogeneity not captured in the model. This result indicates that dynamic activity-based models of the kind considered here can be estimated from data that are less costly to collect and that support the large sample sizes typically required for travel-demand modeling. We conclude therefore that the proposed approach opens up a way to develop large-scale dynamic activity-based models of travel demand.     

Analyzing the time frame for the transition from leisure-cyclist to commuter-cyclist

A recent survey reported that many commuter-cyclists had enjoyed leisure bicycling on a regular basis prior to becoming a commuter-cyclist. While bicycling for leisure, it is assumed that they considered various factors that led them to consider becoming commuter-cyclists. This study began with the question of how long it would take for a leisure-cyclist to become a commuter-cyclist, and it focused on the time that elapsed between leisure-cyclists transitioning to commuter-cycling. In order to analyze the time frame, it was hypothesized that the probability that a leisure-cyclist would become a commuter-cyclist at a certain time would be conditional on the duration that elapsed from the onset of leisure cycling till that time, which represents the “snowballing” or “inertial” dynamics of duration. A robust methodology, which is known as the “hazard model,” was adopted to accommodate such characteristics of a time period. In addition, various external covariates such as individual-specific characteristics, variables associated with the current or previous commuting mode, supply variables regarding bicycle facilities, and individual latent propensities were adopted to account for the duration of changes that would be generally applicable. As a result, many useful results were derived that could be used in fomenting policies to promote cycling to work. It was found that government should invest in establishing segregated lanes for leisure- and commuter-cyclists. It also turned out that a long distance to work hinders a leisure-cyclist from progressing to commuter-cycling. According to the results, young white-collar workers who live in high-rise apartments and enjoy intensive leisure-cycling in groups, are a good target toward whom promotions for commuter-cycling should be focused. However, an unfortunate development was that, when compared with car-commuters, it was found that transit-commuters are more likely to become commuter-cyclists.     

基于AHP-ELECTRE Ⅱ的公路“绿色”选线方案比选

公路建设对沿线自然环境有着重大影响,因此＂绿色＂选线过程中应充分考虑环境因素。利用层次分析法（AHP）建立层次分析模型并确定评价指标权重,然后利用消去与选择转换（ELECTRE Ⅱ）综合评价法,实现各路线方案的环境影响量化评价。通过实例,证明该方法可以较好应用于公路＂绿色＂选线方案比选。