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41.
Integrated land use/transportation forecasting models add significant policy and infrastructure alternatives analysis capabilities to the urban planning process. The financial, time, and staff requirements to develop these models has put them beyond the reach of most small to medium sized urban areas. This paper presents the land use allocation submodel of the Simple, Efficient, Elegant, and Effective model of land use and transportation (SE3M), an integrated land use and transportation forecasting model founded upon Economic Base Theory and Bid-rent Theory. The Bid-rent Land Use Model (BLUM) is an agent based, spatial competition model utilizing unique utility curves for willingness to pay and incomes for budget constrained abilities to pay for each agent. The model structure, estimation, calibration, implementation, and validation are presented. With a single year of land use data available, the validation approach used the Kappa Index of Agreement to spatially check model outputs against base year control data while controlling for agreement by chance. The U.S. territory of Guam is used as the case study/proof of concept implementation for this model framework. Once calibrated, BLUM could solve the spatial competition problem on Guam in less than two minutes of processing time with over 90% accuracy.  相似文献   
42.
In the past 15 years, cities in China have experienced big changes in socioeconomic and traffic conditions, resulting in a long term change in bicycle use. This study aims to quantify the changes in bicycle mode share in Chinese cities and explore the potential causes. Based on data from 51 cities, it is found that bicycle mode share at the city level decreased gradually in the past. Conventional bicycle mode share decreased with a rate of 3 % per year, but electric bicycle mode share increased with a rate of 2 % per year. The correlations between city features such as demographics and built environments and bicycle mode share at different city sizes are compared. The generalized linear models are estimated to relate the changes in the share of different trip modes to various city-level factors. The results show that the bicycle mode share in a city is impacted by factors including city area size, population density, number of cars, percentage of local road mileage among all roads, and trip purpose. Possible reasons for the changes in bicycle uses in Chinese cities are explored and policy implications are discussed.  相似文献   
43.
There is a significant body of evidence from both disaggregate choice modelling literature and practical travel demand forecasting that the responsiveness to cost and possibly to time diminishes with journey length. This has, in Britain at least, been termed ‘Cost Damping’, and is recognised in guidance issued by the UK Department for Transport. However, the consistency of the effect across modes and data types has not been established. Cost damping, if it exists, affects both the forecasting of demand and our understanding of behaviour. This paper aims to investigate the evidence for cost and time damping in rail demand using aggregate rail ticket sales data. The rail ticket sales data in Britain has, for many years, formed the basis of analysis of a wide range of impacts of rail demand. It records the number of tickets sold between station pairs, and it is generally felt to provide a reasonably accurate reflection of travel demand. However, the consistency of these direct demand models with choice modelling and highway demand model structures has not been investigated. Rail direct demand models estimated by ticket sales data indicate only slight variation in the fare elasticity with distance, as is evidenced in the largest meta-analysis of price elasticities conducted to date (Wardman in J Transp Econ Policy 48(3):367–384, 2014). This study of UK elasticities shows strong variation between urban and inter-urban trips, presumably a segmentation at least in part by purpose, but less remaining variation by trip length. A lack of variation by length supports the hypothesis of cost damping, because constant cost sensitivity would imply that fare elasticity would increase strongly with distance, because of the increasing impact of higher fares at longer distances. In this paper we indicate that rail direct demand models have some consistency of behavioural paradigm with utility based choice models used in highway planning. We go on to use rail demand data to estimate time and fare elasticities in the context of various cost damping functions. Our empirical contribution is to estimate time elasticities on a basis directly comparable with cost elasticities and to show that the phenomenon of cost damping is strongly present in ticket sales data. This finding implies that cost damping should be included in models intended for multimodal analysis, which may otherwise give incorrect predictions.  相似文献   
44.
Water-sealed underground oil tank projects are quite different from traditional underground projects since the water-sealing conditions are very strict and the difficulties caused by the geological specificity, structural specificity and construction specificity are key factors affecting the project. In light of the significant early initial setting time and rapid temperature increase of sulphoaluminate cement-based grouting material for a large domestic water-sealed underground oil tank with pressurized cyclic grouting, a laboratory grouting simulation is conducted. It is found that the properties of the sulphoaluminate cement-based grouting material are quite different under different pressure cycles, the hydration exothermic peak time gets shorter with an increase of circulation time, the compressive strength decreases with an increase of circulation time, and the longer the circulation time the more obvious the de-crease of compressive strength. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.  相似文献   
45.
For existing advanced geological forecasting, the forecast distance is short and the test frequency is high, increasing test and construction risks. Since various methods have different requirements for the test environ-ment, preparation work can be tedious and result in a long construction time thereby affecting normal construction.A new advanced geological forecast technique based on multi-source seismic interferometry for tunnels is proposed.This technique uses the blast at one end of tunnel as a centrum and receives the signal at the other end of the tun-nel, therefore allowing advanced geological forecasting of the unexcavated tunnel part by relative processing and im-aging. A numerical simulation of this kind of geological forecasting using the finite difference method to simulate two kinds of unfavorable geological bodies (karst and a fault) predicted them accurately and verified the effective-ness and accuracy of this geological forecasting method. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.  相似文献   
46.
The application of prefabricated tunnel technology has been become a new research field both in China and abroad. Based on the running tunnel between Yufuhe station and Wangfuzhuang station of Jinan rail transit line R1, a new prefabricated tunnel construction technology, the PBA method is presented. This paper makes a detailed discussion on section form, supporting scheme and construction process of the PBA method. In this study, 3D a new 3D numerical model for PBA method is presented by finite difference numerical simulation software Flac and the construction processes are modeled. The rule of ground surface settlement, ground deformation and structural stress caused by PBA method is studied in detail. Results show that the structure of PBA method can effectively control the deformation magnitude and scope. Stress concentration appears at the prefabricated connection parts and the reinforcement needs to check. The total assembled structure forms the load-bearing system after the completion of the lateral wall. The built-in depth of the precast pile and pile bottom grouting quality should to be ensured to control the displacement of the precast piles. The results of this study will be a useful reference for similar projects in the future. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.  相似文献   
47.
In order to quantitatively evaluate the safety of the surrounding rock of an underground cavern under seis-mic load, a comprehensive evaluation method for the stability of surrounding rock is proposed based on the general safety factor and point safety factor. A calculation method for the general safety factor of a cavern based on the prin-ciple of shear strength reduction of a rock mass is given, the run-through of the plastic zone between the main power-house and main transformer room is presented as a critical criterion for the overall instability of the cavern, and the general safety factor is obtained by searching for the reduction coefficient. A point safety factor calculation method based on the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion is given. The influence of different seismic input parameters on the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions are studied based on an underground power-house cavern of a hydropower station in Southwest China. The results show that the quantitative evaluation method for the stability of the surrounding rock based on the safety factor is feasible and can reflect the general safety de-gree and local safety degree of different positions of the cavern for different working conditions. It is found that the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions decrease with an increase of the ampli-tude and duration of a seismic wave while they increase with an increase of the incident angle; additionally, the low frequency of a seismic wave has a great influence on the cavern while the high frequency has little effect. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.  相似文献   
48.
Jacking force is the most important parameter in jacking pipe engineering, and reasonable calculation of jacking forces plays an important role in safe and smooth pipe jacking construction. There are many calculation methods for pipe jacking force at present, and the calculation results may be affected to some extent by different cal⁃ culation methods. For this reason, calculation methods of jacking force (frictional resistance) were collected and a comparative analysis was conducted with aspects to the advantages, disadvantages and applicabilities. The results show that as for the jacking force calculated by empirical formulae, the soil layer classifications corresponding to giv⁃ en frictional force per unit area and relevant factors to be considered are different, and the values of frictional force per unit area between pipe and soil in the same soil layer are also different; as for the jacking force calculated by theo⁃ retical formulae, the calculation methods for vertical earth pressure at crown are different and much effected by the pipe buried depth; as for the jacking force calculated by numerical simulation, the selected theories for the simula⁃ tion program and the construction factors to be considered during simulation are different. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.  相似文献   
49.
Based on the Sutong GIL utility tunnel project, which is constructed by the shield machine under the river, and as for the overloading problem at the river bank slope during operating period, the refined threedimensional finite element model was established to study the deformation and cracking characteristics of the tunnel segment structure under different forms of overloading. The evolution laws of section convergence, joint opening and structural stress were analyzed, and the structure damage mechanisms were revealed under conditions of large area loading and local loading. The surface-surcharge control standard was proposed. For the big diameter shield tunneling crossing the silty clay, the research results show that: (1) the deformation failure process is divided into three stages under large area loading condition, taking the design load and compressive yield of rebars inside haunch as the critical points respectively. The first stage is characterized by the elastic stress, the second stage is in plastic state with fracture, and the third stage is accelerating deformation and instability stage. The vertical convergence is 110.5 mm with no opening of joints when rebars are yielded; (2)the deformation failure process under local loading condition is also divided into elasticity, plasticity and instability stages, taking the design load and tensile yield of rebars outside haunch as the critical points respectively. The vertical convergence is 152.6 mm with joint opening of 4.36 mm; (3) the early-warning values of additional stress on the ground under conditions of large area loading and local loading are 110 kPa and 70 kPa respectively. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.  相似文献   
50.
Gong C.  Luo Y.  Zhang J. 《现代隧道技术》2018,(6):210-216and221
Defects of tunnel lining, such as inadequate thickness, voids, cracks, rock falling and water leakage etc., endanger the safety of railway tunnel operation. Based on the site construction, an analysis of the reasons for lining defects was conducted; technical measures against lining defects were proposed and tests were carried out at site. The results show that these measures are reliable and effective, and the purposes of prevention and treatment are re⁃ alized. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.  相似文献   
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