Assimilation of buoy and satellite data in wave forecasts with integral control variables

The quality of numerical wave forecasts can be improved significantly by assimilating wave observations prior to the forecast. In the present study a technique for such assimilation is developed that exploits (a) the efficiency of a limited number of integral control variables, and (b) the effectiveness of variational (model-consistent) assimilation. The formal procedure is independent of the type of control variables and of the wave model (moreover, no adjoint wave model is required). In the present study, integral control variables are chosen to represent large-scale errors in the driving wind fields and uncertainties in the wave model. The assimilation technique is validated with observations of the ERS-1 satellite altimeter and two waverider buoys in two consecutive storms in the Norwegian Sea. The assimilation of the observations reduced the errors in the forecasted significant wave height at the buoy locations typically from 25% to 12%. For low-frequency waves the effect of the assimilation is similarly significant at one buoy location but marginal at the other buoy location.     

New species of the genus Xanthocalanus (Copepoda, Calanoida, Phaennidae) from the Laptev Sea

Sampling of the near-bottom calanoid copepods was performed on board of the research vessel Polarstern in 1993 in the Laptev Sea (Siberian Arctic). Three new species of Xanthocalanus were identified as such, and are described and figured here: X. spinodenticulatus sp. nov., X. laptevorum sp. nov. and X. polarsternae sp. nov.     

不断探索新办法适应机动车维修行业发展需要

汽车业的快速发展给汽车维修行业带来了机遇和挑战，过去的管理理念和方法已落后于形势，交通行业管理部门应积极探索新办法．适应形势发展的需要。     

Effect of traffic information on commuters' propensity to change route and departure time

Considerable public and private resources are devoted to the collection and dissemination of real-time traffic information in the Chicago area. Such information is intended to help individuals make more informed travel decisions, yet its effect on behavior remains largely unexplored. This study evaluates the effect of traffic information on travelers' route and departure time changes and provides a stronger basis for developing advanced information systems. Downtown Chicago automobile commuters were surveyed during the AM peak period. The results indicate that a majority of the respondents access, use and respond to information. For example, individuals use travel information to reduce their anxiety—even if they do not change travel decisions; this indicates that information may have “intrinsic” value. That is, simply knowing traffic conditions is valued by travelers. More than 60% of the respondents had used traffic information to modify their travel decisions. Multivariate analysis using the ordered probit model showed that individuals were more likely to use traffic reports for their route changes if they perceived traffic reports to be accurate and timely, and frequently listened to traffic reports. Respondents were more likely to change their departure times if they perceived traffic reports to be accurate and relevant, and frequently listened to traffic reports. The implication for Advanced Traveler Information Systems are that they may be designed to support both enroute and pre-trip decisions. ATIS performance, measured in terms of accuracy, relevance and timeliness would be critical in the success of such systems. Further, near-term prediction of traffic conditions on congested and unreliable routes (where conditions change rapidly) and incident durations is desirable.     

An automatic segmentation procedure for studying variations in mode choice behaviour

Urban areas are very complex and heterogeneous in terms of their population composition and activity systems. The transport system, modal choices and service levels available to the population also varies considerably across space and time. These similarities and differences in choices and levels of explanatory variables facing individual tripmakers have to be explicitly considered in any study of transport behvior. The common practice has been to include user attributes, in addition to the system characteristics, in the modal utility functions to help capture differences in choice behavior across individuals. However, it could well be that the mode-choice behavior of a segment of the population is fundamentally different from other segments of the population. In view of this, some studies have applied segmentation schemes to help identify the subgroups of presumably different travel responses. Typically, such schemes have been based on stratification of the population by a single variable, chosen either based on a priori notions or one-way cross tabulations. These have their shortcomings. Thus, this paper develops an analytical procedure that simultaneously deals with level of service, socioeconomic and spatial factors to determine the relative role each plays in determining travel behavior. The procedure is applied to data from the Toronto region to illustrate its use.     

On the background level of Tc, Sr and Cs in the North Atlantic

Mean concentrations of the anthropogenic radioactive oceanographic tracers ⁹⁹Tc, ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs have been measured as 0.005, 1.6 and 2.5 Bq m⁻³ in oceanic Northeast Atlantic surface water, east and northeast of the Azores, in 1992. This is, apparently, the first published value for fallout “background” ⁹⁹Tc in oceanic Atlantic water.Comparison with older data indicates an observed half life for ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs in the northeast Atlantic surface water of 20 yr corresponding to a mean residence time of 80–100 yr for the stable elements.The observed ⁹⁹Tc/⁹⁰Sr ratio (3 × 10⁻³) in the Azores samples is 10 times higher than the theoretical fission yield decay corrected to 1992. This is in agreement with published data on rain water samples and may be characteristic for 1960's global fallout. Furthermore, the measured ¹³⁷Cs/⁹⁰Sr ratio is not significantly different from that observed for global fallout. There do not appear to be any additional significant sources of artificial radionuclides in this region.     

Analyzing trade-offs between transportation,inventory and production costs on freight networks

The purpose of this paper is to determine optimal shipping strategies (i.e. routes and shipment sizes) on freight networks by analyzing trade-offs between transportation, inventory, and production set-up costs. Networks involving direct shipping, shipping via a consolidation terminal, and a combination of terminal and direct shipping are considered. This paper makes three main contributions. First, an understanding is provided of the interface between transportation and production set-up costs, and of how these costs both affect inventory. Second, conditions are identified that indicate when networks involving direct shipments between many origins and destinations can be analyzed on a link-by-link basis. Finally, a simple optimization method is developed that simultaneously determines optimal routes and shipment sizes for networks with a consolidation terminal and concave cost functions. This method decomposes the network into separate sub-networks, and determines the optimum analytically without the need for mathematical programming techniques.     

The weldability of steels used in jack-up drilling platforms

Weldability problems in jack-up rigs arise principally in leg construction where particularly high-strength steels (690 N mm⁻² yield) are used for chords and racks. Attainment of mechanical properties is not usually difficult, although procedural trials are advisable.

Of potential fabrication problems, hydrogen cracking (heat-affected zones or weld metal) is of greatest concern, and consideration of solidification cracking is advisable. Lamellar tearing is not generally a problem with modern steels, and the risk of stress-relief cracking will be confined to the limited number of joints which can be heat-treated.

Fatigue cracking is probably the major cause of service failure of jack-up rigs, and the use of high-strength steels, which permits higher static stress limits, can exacerbate this problem. Hydrogen-induced stress corrosion can also occur, either due to cathodic polarisation or corrosion, particularly in the presence of H₂S in foul sea-water. For this reason weld hardness limits need to be maintained.