Factors influencing job satisfaction among merchant seamen

This paper explores the occupational and extra-occupational sources of job satisfaction in merchant seamen. Data were collected using a survey instrument from a sample of 302 seamen, both officers and crew. Factors determining variance in levels of job satisfaction are examined using a multiple regression technique. Several factors were found to have a significant impact on the degree of job satisfaction, particularly shipboard status and marital status. Collectively, the independent variables predicted over 63% of the variance.     

Pollution history of a tropical estuary revealed by combined hydrodynamic modelling and sediment geochemistry

Hydrodynamic modelling of water movement in Hunts Bay, a protected part of Kingston Harbour, Jamaica, shows that depth averaged tidal flows are very low. In the northeast corner of Hunts Bay, water is essentially stagnant. Even under high flow conditions, much of the Bay bottom water is ‘bypassed' by buoyant, lower salinity surface flows. The muddy sediments of Hunts Bay reflect these sluggish to stagnant conditions; sediment cores from the northeast corner of the Bay contain progressively higher amounts of organic matter in their upper parts (last 15–20 years sedimentation). Combined C/N ratios and stable carbon isotope compositions of this organic matter imply a sewage origin. Both lead and chromium metal concentrations and enrichment factors relative to average crustal shales show geographically related patterns that reflect hydrodynamic circulation predicted by modelling. In particular, metal concentrations and enrichment factors are highest at the northern end of the bay, especially in the northeast corner. Modelling confirms that stagnant conditions would occur in the northeast part of the bay even without the presence of a major causeway. The causeway may contribute to low flow conditions, but is not the principal cause of organic contamination, which is simply an excessive input of sewage.     

Numerical simulations of seasonal and interannual variability of the Black Sea thermohaline circulation

The Black Sea general circulation is simulated by a primitive equation model with active free surface. The forcing is seasonally variable and is based on available climatic data. The model reproduces the main features of the Black Sea circulation, including the river discharge effects on the mean sea level and the Bosphorus outflow. Model results show that the simulated sea surface elevation increases in spring over the whole sea, reaching a maximum in the Danube delta area. In the same region, a minimum is observed in winter. The amplitude of the seasonal oscillations (about 8–12 cm over the whole basin) is of the same order of magnitude as the maximum horizontal variations (about 15–18 cm between the coastal areas and the basin interior). This strong signal formed mostly by river discharges, along with the seasonal variability in the other forcing functions and the local dynamics creates a well-pronounced interannual variability. The performance of the model in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability is critically analyzed, with a special attention on the cold intermediate water formation and the circulation in the upper 150 m. The simulations demonstrate that the source of intermediate waters is on the shelf, and that the water mass in the core of cold intermediate layer changes with time as a response to the periodic forcing at sea surface. This type of variability is characterized by pronounced interannual changes, proving that important differences could exist between water mass structure in different years, even when using identical atmospheric forcings each year.     

Approaches to the future in U.S. urban transportation planning

In appreciation of the fact that longer-run considerations are particularly important in the development of urban transportation, during the past three decades American transportation planning has been employing increasingly sophisticated approaches to the future. This article discusses four phases in this evolution, with a given focus dominant in each period.During the first period, following on the initial provision of federal government funds for the construction of highways in and around cities, major reliance was based on simple projections of travel demand in metropolitan regions, based mainly on current patterns.This was followed by an approach which focused on an analysis of impacts on transportation systems of projected land uses, based on forecasts of population and economic growth for a target year, on the assumption that facilities were to be provided to move all vehicles that wanted to move from here to there at least possible cost.The third period was characterized by an increasing consciousness of the value of articulating national and local goals in making transportation decisions, going beyond narrow economic and mobility objectives, and including the notion of trade-offs among goals.The most recent period discussed is one characterized by rising interest in futures studies, using methods such as Delphi and cross-impact analysis and approaches such as alternative futures, as well as a search for achieving flexibility in transportation development and for means of limiting resource commitment in the face of the uncertainties of the future (keeping options open).It is pointed out that we still have a long way to go in learning how to evolve feasible images of the future, with associated explicit urban life-style goals, that come to grips with societal variety and conflicting interests.     

Evaluating marginal improvements to a transport network: An application to the Santiago underground

This paper describes a simplified methodology designed for quick investment appraisal of improvements to a transport network, and discusses its limitations and advantages particularly in the context of a developing country. The approach basically considers:

- a method to define the total population (relevant origin-destination pairs) affected by the project

- the selection of a low-cost background model to represent transport demand on a network at an aggregate level

- the choice of a suitable marginal demand model (in this case a discrete mode choice model) capable of providing the required sensitivity and accuracy to model the project

- the estimation of the marginal demand due to the project during all the years of the study horizon, and

- a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of the decision recommended using these two models.

Finally, the paper summarises the results of applying the methodology to the case of an extension to the Santiago underground; it was found that the project has a high social rate of return (almost 20 per cent). However, from the point of view of a private evaluation, it can cover its operating costs only.     

Sample size and grouping in the estimation of disaggregate models—A simple case

Using a very simple form of disaggregate model for household car ownership, it appears that two widely held beliefs about disaggregate modelling — that analysis should always be carried out on individual households, and that sample sizes of 500 to 1000 are generally sufficient - are not necessarily valid. Though the results may not be generalizable to the full class of problems to which disaggregate analysis addresses itself, it does seem that more attention needs to be given to the questions of sample size and grouping.In addition, the standard test of goodness of fit (the so-called rho-squared test) is shown to be extremely weak. A far stronger and to some extent complementary, test is to compare the log-likelihood value given by the model with that on the basis of the full or saturated model — a test which has recently been clearly presented by a number of writers in the statistical literature. When using dummy variables, it is important that pair-wise tests on coefficients relating to various levels of the same attribute should be carried out, as well as the standard test assessing difference from zero.These points are illustrated by a number of simple examples.The abstract of this paper appears on p. 369.