A framework for travel time variability analysis using urban traffic incident data

This study aims to develop a framework to estimate travel time variability caused by traffic incidents using integrated traffic, road geometry, incident, and weather data. We develop a series of robust regression models based on the data from a stretch in California's highway system during a two-year period. The models estimate highway clearance time and percent changes in speed for both downstream and upstream sections of the incident bottleneck. The results indicate that highway shoulder and lane width factor adversely impact downstream highway clearance time. Next, travel time variability is estimated based on the proposed speed change models. The results of the split-sample validation show the effectiveness of the proposed models in estimating the travel time variability. Application of the model is examined using a micro-simulation, which demonstrates that equipping travelers with the estimated travel time variability in case of an incident can improve the total travel time by almost 60%. The contribution of this research is to bring several datasets together, which can be advantageous to Traffic Incident Management.     

软土刀具的磨损预测——一种研究刀具磨损系统中主要影响因素的新方法

硬岩隧道掘进机的性能很大程度上取决于其切削刀具的磨损情况。刀具的磨损会降低掘进速度,进而导致掘进时间延长、项目成本增加。通常在隧道项目的规划阶段使用预测模型来进行磨损预测,而常规的磨损试验对磨损系统的考虑还不够准确,并没有考虑到刀具/土体的相互作用、周围介质（水、膨润土）以及掘进过程中的荷载等因素。针对该问题,专门设计了一个水平放置的磨损试验设备。本文介绍了该试验方法,研究并讨论了磨损系统相关因素对磨损率的影响。结果表明,该设备可模拟真实的掘进过程,很好地解决了上述问题,达到了高效、准确预测磨损的效果。     

Maritime interests in the EU policy-making: Structures,practices, and governability of collective action

Throughout Europe, a number of maritime interests have re-targeted their lobbying structures and strategies aiming to influence the development of the maritime related European Union (EU) policies. The paper examines these maritime interests’ mobilisation in the making of the Common EU Maritime Transport Policy (CMTP). First, it provides a review of the role of these interest groups and the implications of the observed collective interests’ representation. Then, with the contribution a data-set of replies to a questionnaire distributed to all the interest groups that are involved in EU maritime affairs, the paper analyses the variety of interest groups representing the maritime sector in EU affairs. The focus is on the structures (i.e. membership numbers and types, location, internal structures, budget) and the lobbying practices of the 37 identified EU level maritime related organisations. The paper also presents an evaluation of the most positive and most negative parameters of the ‘EU environment’ and the ‘economic environment’ that assist, or undermine, the governability cohesiveness of this collective action. This study provides information on whether and under what conditions maritime interests are able to form comprehensive EU-level organisations capable of representing their members and their interests in the EU policy making process     

Error quantification of a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part 2. Chlorophyll-a, nutrients and SPM

Marine systems models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, but far too little attention has been paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to ecosystem processes. Here we describe the application of summary error statistics to a complex 3D model (POLCOMS-ERSEM) run for the period 1988–1989 in the southern North Sea utilising information from the North Sea Project, which collected a wealth of observational data. We demonstrate that to understand model data misfit and the mechanisms creating errors, we need to use a hierarchy of techniques, including simple correlations, model bias, model efficiency, binary discriminator analysis and the distribution of model errors to assess model errors spatially and temporally. We also demonstrate that a linear cost function is an inappropriate measure of misfit. This analysis indicates that the model has some skill for all variables analysed. A summary plot of model performance indicates that model performance deteriorates as we move through the ecosystem from the physics, to the nutrients and plankton.     

Induced traffic and economic appraisal

Economic appraisal of major roads in the UK is based on a set of standard procedures and conventions. A central assumption has been that the volume and pattern of traffic in any given year is independent of the quality of service offered by the network — the fixed trip matrix assumption. Failing to consider induced traffic can have serious consequences for the accuracy and robustness of the measured traffic benefits from road improvements. Assessment of the wider economic benefits of roads, which is an important political imperative for road investment, is also made more difficult. Two conclusions are reached. Variable trip matrix methods need to be introduced for the appraisal of major road schemes, and scheme appraisal needs to be complemented by a more strategic area-wide approach to evaluation. In responding to its advisory committee (SACTRA), the UK Department of Transport has accepted the first of these conclusions and is cautiously favourable to the second.     

The influence of the Agulhas Current on the adjacent coastal ocean: possible impacts of climate change

The dynamics of the coastal ocean along the southeastern coast of Africa is dominated by a strong and intense western boundary current, the Agulhas Current. With a near-uniform, narrow continental shelf and a steep shelf slope that stabilizes this current, the trajectory of the Agulhas exhibits great stability. The only substantial perturbation occurs with the irregular passage of a Natal Pulse, a soliton meander. The initiation of this meander at the Natal Bight is due to a barotropic instability when the intensity of the landward border of the current exceeds a certain threshold value. This may come about with natural fluctuations in the current or with the adsorption of deep-sea eddies onto the current. Under a climate change scenario of altered wind stress curl over the South Indian Ocean it is conceivable that the threshold for the triggering of a Natal Pulse will occur more frequently. This will lead to a situation where the current axis on average lies further offshore. The possible consequences of such a situation on the rainfall of the coast, on the ecology of estuaries and the coastal ocean, and on the socio-economics of the region is discussed.     

垂直及斜出水流场的二维及三维TR-PIV试验

本文对钝头回转体垂直及斜出水流场采用TR-(Time-Resolved)PIV技术进行测量,并对斜出水流场进行3D-Stereo PIV(三维体视 PIV)测量.文中介绍了测试技术及测量结果,揭示了出水过程中流动结构及其演变,展示了TR-PIV技术对具有瞬态历程特征的出水流场研究的适应性.     

1/32° real-time global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16° resolution

A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25–75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to (a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and (b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean – topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system.     

An approach to estimating the hull girder response of a ship due to springing

This article describes an estimation method for the hull girder response of a ship due to springing. The linear and nonlinear springing effects on the hull girder are evaluated. Previous studies on the springing response focused mainly on the symmetric response, or vertical response. In this article, however, the springing analysis is extended to asymmetric responses, or horizontal and torsional responses. The Timoshenko beam model was used to calculate the hull girder response and the quadratic strip method was employed to calculate hydrodynamic forces and moments on the hull. To remove irregular frequencies, a rigid lid was adopted on the hull free surface level and hydrodynamic coefficients were interpolated for asymptotic values. Applications to two ships for the symmetric and asymmetric responses were carried out and the effect of springing responses is also discussed.