Forecasting automobile demand using disaggregate choice models

This paper presents a simulation model of the American automobile market. The simulation model combines a disaggregate model of household automobile number and type choice with an econometric model of used vehicle scrappage and simple models of new car supply. For fixed vehicle designs, consumer and producer interactions determine new car sales, used car scrappage and consumer vehicle holdings. The model allows automobiles to be highly differentiated and consumers to be heterogeneous. Short-run equilibrium is defined as supply equal to demand for every vehicle type during each market period. The automobile stock then evolves slowly as new vehicles are added and old vehicles are removed during each period. An empirical application of the simulation model with 12 consumer groups and 131 vehicle types is used to forecast automobile holdings. A base case scenario is run for 1978–1984 and compared with the observed market behavior during this period. Several other simulations are then run comparing different gasoline price scenarios with the base case for 1984–1990.     

Psychological benefits from vanpooling and group composition

Prospective carpool satisfaction varies with respect to carpool size, acquaintanceship and gender composition, at least for carpool arrangements of 2–4 members. It is not known whether such variations apply in the same kind or to the same degree for vanpools of 9–15 members. A study of 15 vanpool programs in Southern California operating over 700 vanpools with more than 8,000 members was used to test for such effects. Five measures of retrospective vanpool satisfaction were derived from 40 vanpool benefit items using factor analysis in LISREL. The five perceived vanpool satisfaction factors included reliability, social, relaxation, economic and environmental benefits. Variations in these five benefit factors were analyzed with respect to vanpool group composition using difference of means tests and correlation analysis. Perceived vanpool reliability showed the largest statistical association with most of the group composition variables studied, perhaps because it was better identified in the analysis in terms of the total number of individual items loading on it. Gender had the largest statistical association with most of the vanpool benefit factors, perhaps because it was most clearly identified with individual vanpool members in the data. Based on this analysis, it appears that perceived vanpool benefits are qualitatively as well as quantitatively different than perceived carpool benefits. Vanpool program marketing strategies may need to be rethought and recast based on these research findings.     

Evaluation of transit operations: data applications of Tri-Met's automated Bus Dispatching System

In this paper, archived Automatic Vehicle Location and Automatic Passenger Counter data are used to evaluate actual bus running time variation in relation to scheduled service for Tri-Met, the transit provider for the Portland, Oregon metropolitan area. Given observed variation in running times, scheduled recovery times are found to be generally (though not universally) excessive. This results in an under-investment of resources in revenue service relative to non-revenue service. Analysis of trip level data reveals that bus operators are an important source of running time variation after controlling for such factors as route design, time of day and direction of service, and passenger activity.     

EMBRYONIC EXPRESSION OF TENASCIN X SUGGESTS A ROLE IN EPICARDIAL AND DUCTUS

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Characterization of incidents on an urban arterial road

The early warning of incidents on urban arterial roads in a congested city can reduce delay, accidents and pollutant emission. Freeway incident detection systems implemented in recent years may not be suitable for arterial incidents. Arterial incident detection is more difficult. The traffic flow on an arterial road is not conserved from the upstream end of a road link to the downstream end because urban traffic does turn in and out of side‐streets, car‐parks and local residences. Roadside friction such as kerbside parking and shopping traffic also tends to create apparent incidents which are in fact frequent and normal events. This paper develops a definition for an arterial incident and describes a case study on an arterial road in Melbourne, Australia. The study shows that detectors upstream of an incident are more useful for incident detection than downstream detectors. It also identifies occupancy and speed as the appropriate parameters to characterise and detect arterial incidents.     

Analytical and institutional methods and frameworks

This chapter presents a summary of the findings of the workshop on ‘Analytical and Institutional Methods and Frameworks’. The paper discusses the nature of the analytical methods used in the papers presented and the purposes for which they were employed, which were generally to either assist in the planning and operation of public transport or to monitor the efficiency and effectiveness of transport services. Subsequent sections examine issues related to data collection and management, and the more general issue of institutional arrangements. Policy and research agendas needed to support further consideration of the subject are then identified.     

Turbulent mixing and internal tides in Gaoping (Kaoping) Submarine Canyon, Taiwan

Turbulent overturning on scales greater than 10 m is observed near the bottom and in mid-depth layers within the Gaoping (formerly spelled Kaoping) Submarine Canyon (KPSC) in southern Taiwan. Bursts of strong turbulence coexist with bursts of strong sediment concentrations in mid-depth layers. The turbulence kinetic energy dissipation rate in some turbulence bursts exceeds 10^− 4 W kg^− 1, and the eddy diffusivity exceeds 10^− 1 m² s^− 1. Within the canyon, the depth averaged turbulence kinetic energy dissipation rate is ~ 7 × 10^− 6 W kg^− 1, and the depth averaged eddy diffusivity is ~ 10^− 2 m² s^− 1. These are more than two orders of magnitude greater than typical values in the open ocean, and are much larger than those found in the Monterey Canyon where the strong turbulent mixing has also been. The interaction of tidal currents with the complex topography in Gaoping Submarine Canyon is presumably responsible for the observed turbulent overturning via shear instability and the breaking of internal tides and internal waves at critical frequencies. Strong 1st-mode internal tides exist in KPSC. The depth averaged internal tidal energy near the canyon mouth is ~ 0.17 m² s^− 2. The depth integrated internal tidal energy flux at the mouth of the canyon is ~ 14 kW m^− 1, propagating along the axis of the canyon toward the canyon head. The internal tidal energy flux in the canyon is 3–7 times greater than that found in Monterey Canyon, presumably due to the more than 10 times larger barotropic tide in the canyon. Simple energy budget calculations conclude that internal tides alone may provide energy sufficient to explain the turbulent mixing estimated within the canyon. Further experiments are needed in order to quantify the seasonal and geographical distributions of internal tides in Gaoping Submarine Canyon and their effects on the sediment flux in the canyon.     

A novel method for estimating vertical eddy diffusivities using diurnal signals with application to western Long Island Sound

We present an approach that allows the estimation of vertical eddy diffusivity coefficients from buoy measurements made at two or more depths. By measuring the attenuation and phase lag of a scalar signal generated periodically at the surface as it propagates downwards, the vertical eddy diffusivity coefficients can be calculated as K_v = ωΔz²/2ln²(α₂/α₁), where α₂/α₁ is the ratio of the real amplitudes at frequency ω at the two depths separated by Δz = z₂ − z₁; as K_V = ωΔz²/2φ², where φ is the phase lag at the frequency ω; or as K_v = iωΔz²/ln²(U₂/U₁), where U₂/U₁ is the ratio of the complex signal amplitudes at the two depths. The method requires that horizontal fluxes be small at the ω frequency and that the signal-to-noise ratios at the two depths allow the determination of the amplitude and phase of ω.Application of this method to summertime 2004 western Long Island Sound oxygen and temperature buoy measurements at two depths provides a time-series of two-day average vertical eddy diffusivity estimates. Using these eddy diffusivities in conjunction with measured vertical concentration gradients, we obtain a time-series of vertical transport rates for oxygen and heat and estimate mean downward fluxes for June and July as 150–260 mMol m^− 2 day^− 1 and 100–400 W m^− 2 respectively. These estimates are of a similar magnitude to sub-pycnocline O₂ and heat demands of 240 ± 200 mMol m^− 2 day^− 1 and 180 ± 60 W m^− 2 that we infer from simple budgets, implying that vertical transport is significant to both budgets.The eddy coefficients obtained from the independent O₂ and temperature measurements have a 68% correlation, and the O₂ flux estimates show a correlation of 41% to measured rates of change in bottom dissolved oxygen levels. Our results indicate that extended time-series of eddy diffusivity coefficients can be obtained from in situ buoy measurements and the method shows promise as a way to constrain the vertical transport variability in budgets of dissolved materials in estuaries.