A regression model for bus running times in suburban areas of winnipeg

To plan new bus routes in suburban areas, expected bus running times on these routes are needed. Using most readily available relevant variables, a regression model is developed for estimating bus running times. The model is conceptually reasonable and it was tested using data other than that used for estimation.     

A utility-theory analysis of automobile speed under uncertainty of enforcement

Highway automobile speed and uncertain enforcement of the speed limit are introduced into a standard household utility model having time and income constraints. Due to uncertainty, expected utility is maximized to obtain the optimal speed (in excess of the speed limit). The optimal amounts of all other commodities and travel are also obtained. The key feature of the model is the risk attitude of the driver and the effect on optimal speed of such attitude. A related feature is the effect of risk attitude on the amount of speed self-insurance. An important finding is that the risk avert (seeking, neutral) driver charges himself an insurance premium that is larger than (smaller than, equal to) what is actuarially sufficient. The relationship between speed, risk attitude, and efficient cost of automobile travel is developed and implications are explored. A parametric analysis is conducted to establish the effect on optimal speed (and other variables) of changes in such policy instruments as the price of gasoline, the probability of being caught exceeding the speed limit, the unit speed fine, and the speed limit. Policy implications of the theoretical results are part of the conclusions.     

A model of stoppings on urban bus routes

The amount of time required to pick up and discharge passengers is an important issue in the planning and modeling of urban bus systems. Several past studies have employed models of this component of bus travel time which are based, in part, on a model of the number of stoppings the bus makes to pick up or discharge passengers. Most past versions of this model have assumed that expected demand does not vary from stop to stop or from trip to trip, but that the number of passengers demanding service at any given stop during any given trip follows a Poisson distribution. An alternative model is derived, based on the assumption that expected demand varies among stops and times of day but is fixed from day to day at any given stop and time of day. Boarding and alighting survey data are used to verify that the “average-demand” Poisson model consistently overestimates the number of stoppings and to calibrate an approximate version of the alternative model. A stop-spacing optimization model previously developed by Kikuchi and Vuchic is reevaluated using the alternative stopping model in place of the average demand model used in the original version. The results are found to be considerably different, thus indicating that transit route optimization models are sensitive to the way in which stopping processes are modeled.     

Arctic tanker risk analysis project

This paper summarizes the interim Phase II results of the Arctic Tanker Risk Analysis Project, which examined the risk of oil shipment by tankers in the Canadian Arctic. The objectives were to identify the hazards most likely to produce an oil spill on the MV Arctic, and to institute measures to reduce that risk. Phase I indicated that a high potential exists for a shipping accident at the terminals, the St. Lawrence River and in the High Arctic. However, environmental sensitivity was shown to be greatest along the coastal zone of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the St. Lawrence River. Phase II involved further examination of environmental sensitivity and the task of ice navigation. These results resulted in a revised risk profile. Three spill scenarios were then designed to estimate clean-up costs and other economic impacts. A cost effectiveness analysis was conducted which compared spill costs to risk mitigation. As the project enters Phase III, the scope has widened to include all product tankers operating in the Arctic. A new Canadian Standards Association Risk Management Standard Q850 is being implemented with the objective of providing prototype tanker Bridge Risk Management System software.     

低同步串级调速系统转差功率反馈方式的研究

绕线式异步电机转差功率反馈到电网进行调速的方法已在许多工业部门得到广泛应用,但由于调速过程中转子电势将低于电网电压,因而这种调速方式需要在电网与逆变器之间接入一个升压变压器。本文提出了一种省去升压变压器和直接将转差功率反馈到定子绕组的新的串级调速方法。文中对定子绕组反馈点的选择、等效电路数模及主要参数作了分析,并在一台改制的绕线式异步电机上作了试验,结果表明这种调速方法除经济简便外,仍具有优良的调速性能。     

Thermal deformations in typical maglev guideway structures

Thermal gradients and related deformations induced in elevated Maglev guideways by temperature variations in their environment have been predicted by a mathematical model. The deflections induced by thermal gradients in typical guideways are found to exceed specified limits for acceptable operation of an electromagnetic suspension system vehicle unless measures are taken to reduce the thermal gradients and related deflections by suitable treatment of the guideway surfaces.     

US antitrust policy and liner conferences in the age of intermodalism

This article examines the uncertainties concerning the antiturst immunity for collective participation by liner conferences in intermodal transporation. Among them are the FMC's jurisdiction under the Shipping Act to authorize such collective actions, the legality of intermodal dual-rate contracts and the stringency by lsquo;public-interestrsquo; justification. Administrative and judicial decisions proved ineffective in resolving the issues which legislative actions had, over a decade, failed to deal with. These uncertainties could soon be ended with passage of the maritime antiturst polity emerging out of this Congress. It is, however, still uncertain as to whether, and to what extent, the viabilty of the conference system would be threatened by the continued growth of intermodalism and vice versa. Congressional intent to safeguard the continued growth of intermodalism and the development of other future innovations means that these two issues are of more than just academic interests. Yet, they have not been adequately addressed in the policy studies currently available.     

The compressive behavior of advanced double hull structure—A review of current research at David Taylor

It has long been recognized that the compressive behavior of primary ship structural components plays a vital role in the design of surface ship hulls. This is equally as true for the new advanced double hull concept as it is for the more conventional surface ship configurations. What is different, however, is the nature of the structural mechanics phenomena which must be addressed due to the double hull's more radical departure from conventional design and construction practices. With increasing interest and attention being shown in this new concept, the David Taylor Model Basin has over the past few years initiated a number of research efforts which have and are continuing to address various aspects of the behavior of double hulls and their components to primary compressive loadings. These studies have as their ultimate goal the development of practical, user oriented design methods for double hull structure and as such currently focus on more approximate, rather than mathematically rigorous, approaches to the various structural phenomena being considered. This paper is in essence a progress report on a selected number of these efforts and describes the results achieved to date as well as the ongoing efforts and those planned for the future. This report focuses primarily on three recent studies: (1) a preliminary look at the relative significance of local versus general instability failure of double hull structure; (2) small scale experimental analysis of double hull sections using rigid vinyl modelling; and (3) the application of beam-on-elastic-foundation analysis methods for high aspect stiffened plates as it relates to double hull structure. In addition to these major topics, the report also includes a brief discussion of other ongoing and planned efforts relevant to the advanced double hull.     

A spatial equilibrium port cargo projection model

A mathematical spatial programming model developed to analyse changes in international and hinterland commodity flows through a regional port system is applied to wheat shipments through the U.S. Pacific Northwest port system. Two scenarios, one focusing on a Chinese quarantine on wheat shipments from the Pacific Northwest and the other on possible closure of barge transportation on the Columbia-Snake River, illustrate the capacity of the model to evaluate the impacts of international and hinterland shocks on the regional port system.     

The state-of-the-art of “comprehensive” planning

Planning occurs as a part of governmental operations wherever decision-making happens. For US metropolitan areas, the locuses of decision-making are multiple, ranging in scale from very small jurisdictions up through the hierarchy to state and federal levels, and in function from general governments to many special-purpose agencies — transportation, health care, education, etc. Almost all might affect or be affected by urban transportation decisions and actions. Since no one of these units of government is comprehensive in authority and activity, there is no single, centralized planning operation that is truly comprehensive. Pluralistic planning is increasingly trying to foresee and to accommodate the interactions among the various levels and functions. Instead of fragmenting, with the fragments pulled apart and insulated, we need to move toward partitioning, not merely to delimit boundaries but also to identify interfaces. This movement is hampered by the differentials in the development of the state-of-the-art of the technical planning process now used by the several levels and functional units of government. This is most advanced, and most effective, for small, homogeneous suburban jurisdictions primarily concerned with guiding and controlling physical development; it is in disarray in central cities trying to cope with social and economic problems as well as with physical deterioration; at the metropolitan scale it is highly developed technically but not very influential. There is a trend toward a network of planning activities that recognizes and facilitates interrelationships and interactions, both vertically among functional boundaries and horizontally across geographical-scale distinctions — a trend toward the comprehensive —but we have a very long way to go.Paper prepared for the Highway Research Board Conference on Organization for Continuing Urban Transportation Planning.