Statistical inference on transit route‐level origin–destination flows using automatic passenger counter data

We consider inferring transit route‐level origin–destination (OD) flows using large amounts of automatic passenger counter (APC) boarding and alighting data based on a statistical formulation. One critical problem is that we need to enumerate the OD flow matrices that are consistent with the APC data for each bus trip to evaluate the model likelihood function. The OD enumeration problem has not been addressed satisfactorily in the literature. Thus, we propose a novel sampler to avoid the need to enumerate OD flow matrices by generating them recursively from the first alighting stop to the last stop of the bus route of interest. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that incorporates the proposed sampler is developed to simulate the posterior distributions of the OD flows. Numerical investigations on an operational bus route under a realistic OD structure demonstrate the superiority of the proposed MCMC method over an existing MCMC method and a state‐of‐the‐practice method. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

等离子体微表处理胶粉改性沥青工艺条件优化分析

为提高橡胶回收再利用效率,进一步改善胶粉改性沥青路用性能,采用等离子微表处理方法对胶粉进行活化处理。处理工艺条件（包括功率和时间）对胶粉改性沥青的性能影响较为关键,利用不同处理功率和处理时间分别制备了9组等离子微表处理胶粉的改性沥青,通过比较其针入度、软化点以及动态剪切试验结果,探究不同条件对胶粉改性沥青性能影响的规律,进而结合灰关联模糊评价模型确定等离子体微表处理方法的最佳工艺条件。研究结果表明：采用40目胶粉且其质量掺量为15%时,处理功率和处理时间与关联度值存在线性增长关系,且随着处理功率或时间的增加,均有胶粉改性沥青的针入度降低,软化点升高的趋势;在70℃温度下,等离子体活化胶粉的改性沥青车辙因子G^*/sin（δ）值呈现增大趋势,表明等离子微表处理技术可有效改善胶粉改性沥青的高温稳定性,且性能受到功率和时间显著影响。灰色关联模糊评价方法分析结果显示：排序关联度值最大为0.920 8,可以确定等离子体处理方法最佳处理功率和处理时间分别为250 W和8 min。结合处理工艺条件与关联度值拟合结果可知,功率拟合线斜率比时间拟合斜率更大,与处理时间相比,处理功率对于胶粉改性沥青高温性能影响更大。     

矩形断面综合管廊线缆舱通风阻力系数数值仿真研究

为探究城市综合管廊通风阻力影响因素和计算方法,通过调研综合管廊通风系统设计和交通隧道通风阻力的相关研究成果,得到综合管廊线缆舱单位长度通风阻力系数的计算公式。建立综合管廊线缆舱三维数值模型,利用ANSYS FLUENT软件并采用标准双方程模型对通风障碍物比例约为15%的综合管廊线缆舱室内部支架、线缆和热效应对通风的阻力影响进行模拟。分析得到： 1)相较于内部无支架、线缆的综合管廊线缆舱,有支架、线缆时对通风阻力影响极大; 2）随着通风风速的增大,综合管廊线缆舱通风阻力逐渐增大,而通风阻力系数减小,且逐渐趋于稳定; 3）进口空气温度、线缆发热及舱内温度产生的热效应对通风的阻力效应有一定的影响,且随着进风温度增大,通风阻力和通风阻力系数逐渐降低。     

舟山沈家门港小干岛主桥设计方案比选

根据小干岛主桥桥梁跨度、周边环境、施工方案等因素,提出了中承式钢管混凝土拱桥、独塔斜拉桥及双塔斜拉桥三种方案并进行设计。从景观、施工、经济、环境影响等方面比较了三种方案的优缺点,最终推荐中承式钢管混凝土拱桥方案,并总结了中承式钢管混凝土拱桥的结构特点,为类似桥梁设计提供参考。     

交叉口混合交通流跟驰行为研究

为了研究机动车流和非机动车流在交叉口交通信号灯影响下的过街跟驰情况,文章对西安市南稍门十字以及小寨十字进行了观测与记录,采用录制视频的方式,观测了在一个交通信号灯周期内车流的过街跟驰情况,采集并分析数据后,针对机动车流的跟驰行为构建了基于安全距离的跟驰模型,通过分析可以看出,在交叉口处机动车和非机动车过街行为受行人和机动车流影响较大,转向车流与直行的车流也会互相影响。     

深海潜水器载人舱腐蚀损伤识别方法研究

深海潜水器载人舱是海洋深潜结构物的重要组成部分,保障着工作人员的安全,所以掌握该结构在长期使用过程中的健康安全状况非常必要。本文首先对4500m深海潜水器载人舱6个监测点进行加速度监测,得到其加速度的结点能量;再通过广义回归神经网络和概率神经网络对这些加速度结点能量进行训练;最后用训练好的神经网络进行预测。研究结果表明,对深海潜水器载人舱结构损伤位置的预测正确率可以达到90%左右,可以达到健康监测的目的。     

船闸工程金属结构探伤装备配置研究

目前船闸工程金属结构检测一般采用超声波探伤仪,受其技术原理制约,该方法在具体应用过程存在一定的盲区。本文首先对金属结构探伤现状进行分析,然后对市场上较为成熟的其他金属结构探伤装备进行梳理,并从经济型、操作性、检测效果等方面进行分析,为船闸工程的金属结构探伤装备配置提供建议。     

Multidimensional visualization of transit smartcard data using space–time plots and data cubes

Given the wide application of automatic fare collection systems in transit systems across the globe, smartcard data with on- and/or off-boarding information has become a new source of data to understand passenger flow patterns. This paper uses Nanjing, China as a case study and examines the possibility of using the data cube technique in data mining to understand space–time travel patterns of Nanjing rail transit users. One month of smartcard data in October, 2013 was obtained from Nanjing rail transit system, with a total of over 22 million transaction records. We define the original data cube for the smartcard data based on four dimensions—Space, Date, Time, and User, design a hierarchy for each dimension, and use the total number of transactions as the quantitative measure. We develop modules using the programming language Python and share them as open-source on GitHub to enable peer production and advancement in the field. The visualizations of two-dimensional slices of the data cube show some interesting patterns such as different travel behaviors across user groups (e.g. students vs. elders), and irregular peak hours during National Holiday (October 1st–7th) compared to regular morning and afternoon peak hours during regular working weeks. Spatially, multidimensional visualizations show concentrations of various activity opportunities near metro rail stations and the changing popularities of rail stations through time accordingly. These findings support the feasibility and efficiency of the data cube technique as a mean of visual exploratory analysis for massive smart-card data, and can contribute to the evaluation and planning of public transit systems.     

长江上游车亭碛水道小南海滩段河床演变规律

车亭碛水道小南海滩为长江上游重点碍航河段,兼具浅险滩和急流滩的特点。选用多年实测资料研究该河段水沙特性以及岸线、深泓和典型断面等变化,分析小南海滩近几十年尤其三峡成库后演变规律。结果表明,小南海滩段平面形态稳定,但局部深槽位置受整治工程影响发生显著变化。三峡蓄水后,小南海滩段枯期处于回水变动区内。由于枯水小流量挟沙能力弱,且上游向家坝拦蓄大量泥沙,因而未发生明显淤积,其演变仍以整治工程措施为主要诱因。     

内河船舶船体梁极限弯曲能力统计特性研究

针对内河船舶船体梁极限弯曲能力的计算与统计特性问题,将影响船体梁极限弯曲能力的主要因素作为随机变量,分别讨论了材料屈服强度与板厚的概率分布参数选取。采用增量迭代方法与改进Rosenblueth方法,计算得到船体梁极限弯曲能力及其分布参数。研究表明,极限弯曲能力计算时可不考虑板厚变异的影响,内河船舶船体梁极限弯曲能力具有统计上的稳定性。