Some insights in novel risk modeling of liquefied natural gas carrier maintenance operations

This study discusses the analysis of various modeling approaches and maintenance techniques applicable to the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carrier operations in the maritime environment. Various novel modeling techniques are discussed; including genetic algorithms, fuzzy logic and evidential reasoning. We also identify the usefulness of these algorithms in the LNG carrier industry in the areas of risk assessment and maintenance modeling.     

Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.     

Enabling a viable technique for the optimization of LNG carrier cargo operations

In this study, we optimize the loading and discharging operations of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carrier. First, we identify the required precautions for LNG carrier cargo operations. Next, we prioritize these precautions using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and experts’ judgments, in order to optimize the operational loading and discharging exercises of the LNG carrier, prevent system failure and human error, and reduce the risk of marine accidents. Thus, the objective of our study is to increase the level of safety during cargo operations.     

CFD-based method of determining form factor <Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis> for different ship types and different drafts

The value of form factor k at different drafts is important in predicting full-scale total resistance and speed for different types of ships. In the ITTC community, most organizations predict form factor k using a low-speed model test. However, this method is problematic for ships with bulbous bows and transom. In this article, a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)-based method is introduced to obtain k for different type of ships at different drafts, and a comparison is made between the CFD method and the model test. The results show that the CFD method produces reasonable k values. A grid generating method and turbulence model are briefly discussed in the context of obtaining a consistent k using CFD.     

Experimental study on reflection coefficient of curved perforated plate

A set of experiments is carried out in a towing tank to study the effects of the curvature of perforated plates on the wave reflection coefficient (C _r ). The curvature of a perforated plate can be changed by rotating a reference perforated plate aboutits origin according to the parabolic equation y=?x ². A plunger-type wave maker is used to generate regular waves. The reflection coefficients are calculated using Goda and Suzuki’s (1976) method. The results are compared with those of vertical or sloped passive wave absorbers. The comparison shows that a perforated plate with a curved profile is highly efficient in terms of reducing the wave reflection coefficient. A correlation is established to estimate the reflection coefficient of curved perforated plates as a function of both flow and geometry characteristics.     

Blue growth and ocean governance—how to balance the use and the protection of the seas

The economic value of the oceans and maritime industry is strongly gaining in importance. As the oceans are very large and particularly sensitive ecosystems, which need to be preserved, a balance between the use and the protection of the seas has to be found. On this issue, the paper presents some thoughts starting with a brief analysis of what to understand by maritime industry which is labeled as blue economy, and a recapitulation of the main threats for the marine environment, caused by blue economy. After that, some noteworthy prerequisites and criteria for finding a sound balance between the use and the protection of the seas will be highlighted, especially the need for sustainable ocean governance is put to discussion.     

Investigations of vehicle securing without lashings for Ro-Ro ships

To reduce the area on deck occupied by each car and the labour and time required for lashing and unlashing cars, it has been proposed by the author that in some conditions, cars on decks could be transported without lashing. To evaluate cargo securing based on this “lashing-free” concept, computational code was developed to calculate the vehicle–deck interactions for various ship motions. The code was structured by incorporating a vehicle model into a piece of ship motion calculation code. A series of time-domain simulations were conducted to evaluate vehicle securing. It was found that for a target ship consisting of a 6000-unit Ro-Ro vessel, vehicle securing is mainly influenced by the ship's rolling motions and is highly dependent on the wave height and loading conditions. It was suggested from the analysis that vehicles could be secured without being lashed in a large area of the ship in specific weather conditions and on some routes with less adverse sea states. However, it is still suggested that conventional lashing holes should be constructed on the deck because in severe sea states the cars will still need to be lashed. The limitations of the current investigations are also presented. The relevant research work was carried out at the Division of Ship Design and Engineering, Department of Shipping and Marine Technology, Chalmers University of Technology.     

Exact and simplified estimations for elastic buckling pressures of structural pipe-in-pipe cross sections under external hydrostatic pressure

Structural pipe-in-pipe cross sections have significant potential for application in offshore oil and gas production systems because they combine thermal insulation performance with structural strength and self weight in an integrated way. Such cross sections comprise inner and outer thin-walled pipes with the annulus between them fully filled by a selectable filler material to impart an appropriate combination of properties. Structural pipe-in-pipe cross sections can exhibit several different collapse mechanisms, and the basis of the preferential occurrence of one over the others is of interest. This article presents an exact analysis for predicting the elastic buckling behaviours of a structural pipe-in-pipe cross section when subjected to external hydrostatic pressure. Simplified approximations are also investigated for elastic buckling pressure and mode when the outer pipe and its contact with the filler material is considered as a pipe on an elastic foundation. Results are presented to show the variation of elastic buckling pressure with the relative elastic modulus of the filler and pipe materials, the filler thickness, and the thicknesses of the inner and outer pipes. Case studies based on realistic application scenarios are used to show that the simplified approximations are sufficiently accurate for practical structural design purposes.     

Experimental study on the nonlinear pressure acting on a high-speed vessel in regular waves

It is well known that the hydrodynamic responses of a high-speed vessel traveling in regular head waves of even moderate wave height can show significant nonlinear behavior, and so linear statistical techniques become insufficient for predicting the statistics of responses in irregular waves. On the other hand, it has been shown that an approximate third-order Volterra model is applicable to handling the statistics of some nonlinear seakeeping problems, such as motions and vertical hull girder loads. In the present study, the focus is on the nonlinear behavior of the pressure responses of the hull surface, especially on the pressures acting on alternately wet and dry areas near the waterline and on the bow zone with high deadrise angles that may be subject to slight impact and water pile-up effects. To clarify the validity of applying Volterra modeling to this problem, a series of experiments in regular and irregular head waves were carried out, and approximate third-order and fifth-order Volterra models with the proposed algorithm for finding frequency response functions (FRFs) were applied as a means of validation. In the present article, the first part of the validation was performed using experimental data in regular waves. It was confirmed that the third-order Volterra model has adequate accuracy to simulate deterministically the variation of pressure responses in regular waves of different wave steepness up to a wave amplitude to wavelength ratio of 0.01 even for the highly nonlinear pressures acting on the above-mentioned areas of the hull surface.     

Using a SVM to evaluate damage to vibration isolators in an elastic raft system

Predicting damage to vibration isolators in a raft experiencing heavy shock loadings from explosions is an important task when designing a raft system. It is also vital to be able to research the vulnerability of heavily shocked floating rafts unreliable, especially when the allowable values The conventional approach to prediction has been or ultimate values of vibration isolators of supposedly uniform standard in a raft actually have differing and uncertain values due to defective workmanship. A new model for predicting damage to vibration isolators in a shocked floating raft system is presented in this paper. It is based on a support vector machine（SVM）, which uses Artificial Intelligence to characterize complicated nonlinear mapping between the impacting environment and damage to the vibration isolators. The effectiveness of the new method for predicting damage was illustrated by numerical simulations, and shown to be effective when relevant parameters of the model were chosen reasonably. The effect determining parameters, including kernel function and penalty factors, has on prediction results is also discussed. It can be concluded that the SVM will probably become a valid tool to study damage or vulnerability in a shocked raft system.