Demand forecasting of diesel passenger car considering consumer preference and government regulation in South Korea

Changing market regulations in South Korea have allowed diesel-fueled passenger cars in the domestic market. The diffusion of diesel cars is tied to issues of environmental impact, energy supply and demand, and changes in tax revenue. Policymakers can influence demand for diesel vehicles to protect social welfare and to observe international environmental protection laws. On the supply side, carmakers need to know consumer preferences regarding new vehicles to arrive at development strategies.This study uses microsimulated demand forecasting to address these issues and predict consumer demand for diesel passenger cars. The model accommodates governmental policies and car attributes such as price and engine efficiency. We find that consumers will likely prefer diesel passenger cars to gasoline ones due to the low operation costs of the former in spite of high purchase price when diesel is relatively cheaper than gasoline. Finally we find that diesel passenger cars will capture a 42% market penetration ratio under the pricing system suggested by the Ministry of Environment of Korea.     

An investigation of different methods for the prevention of parametric rolling

The parametric rolling of modern containerships is emerging as a serious problem, to the extent that its effects warrant a study into its prevention. In light of this, two methods for reduction of parametric rolling are proposed and examined by physical model experiments. The first is a sponson attached to the side of a ship, the purpose being to decrease the rate of change of the rollrestoring moment. The second is an antirolling tank to increase roll damping. By conducting free-running model experiments for a 6600-TEU post-Panamax container ship with sponsons under typical parametric rolling conditions, it was found that the sponsons could decrease the magnitude of parametric rolling. The antirolling tank could prevent parametric rolling completely in certain conditions, even in severe head seas. Using the damping coefficients from experimentally derived data of a model ship with an antiroll tank, a numerical simulation was established. The numerical model was then compared with the free-running model experiments. The results indicated that the numerical model could qualitatively verify the experimental results. Finally, an attempt to optimise the size of an antirolling tank for preventing parametric rolling for the subject post-Panamax container ship in the North Pacific Ocean is presented.     

Computational fluid dynamics-based multiobjective optimization of a surface combatant using a global optimization method

The main objective of this article is to describe the development of two advanced multiobjective optimization methods based on derivative-free techniques and complex computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis. Alternatives for the geometry and mesh manipulation techniques are also described. Emphasis is on advanced strategies for the use of computer resource-intensive CFD solvers in the optimization process: indeed, two up-to-date free surface-fitting Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equation solvers are used as analysis tools for the evaluation of the objective function and functional constraints. The two optimization methods are realized and demonstrated on a real design problem: the optimization of the entire hull form of a surface combatant, the David Taylor Model Basin—Model 5415. Realistic functional and geometrical constraints for preventing unfeasible results and to get a final meaningful design are enforced and discussed. Finally, a recently proposed verification and validation methodology is applied to assess uncertainties and errors in simulation-based optimization, based on the differences between the numerically predicted improvement of the objective function and the actual improvement measured in a dedicated experimental campaign. The optimized model demonstrates improved characteristics beyond the numerical and experimental uncertainty, confirming the validity of the simulation-based design frameworks.     

A suggestion of gap flow control devices for the suppression of rudder cavitation

This paper presents the numerical analysis of rudder cavitation in propeller slipstream and the development of a new rudder system aimed for lift augmentation and cavitation suppression. The new rudder system is equipped with cam devices which effectively close the gap between the horn/pintle and movable wing parts. A computational fluid dynamics code that solves the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations is used to analyze the flow field of various rudder systems in propeller slipstream. The body force momentum source terms that mimic flow field behind a rotating propeller are added in the momentum equations to represent the influence of the propeller and its slipstream. For detailed explication of the new rudder system’s lift augmentation and cavitation suppression mechanism, three-dimensional flow analysis is carried out. Simulations clearly display the mechanism of the lift augmentation and cavitation suppression. The computational results suggest that the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes-based computational fluid dynamics reproduces the flow field around a rudder in propeller slipstream and that the present concept for a cavitation suppressing rudder system is highly feasible and warrant further study for inclusion of the interaction with hull and mechanical design for manufacturing and operations.     

Modeling nonlinear roll damping with a self-consistent,strongly nonlinear ship motion model

Appropriate modeling of roll damping is one of the key issues in accurately predicting ship roll motion. The difficulties in modeling roll damping arise from the nonlinear nature of the phenomena. In this study, we report a new effort in modeling the bilge keel roll damping effect based on the blocking mechanisms of an object in the potential flow. This effect can be implemented as a component of appropriate ship motion models. We used our digital, self-consistent, ship experimental laboratory (DiSSEL) ship motion model to test its effectiveness in predicting ship roll motion. Our numerical experiment demonstrated clearly that the implementation of this roll damping component improves significantly the accuracy of numerical model results (the results were compared with ship experiment data from the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Carderock Division, Maneuvering and Seakeeping Facility).     

Evaluation of consequence assessment methods for pool fires on water involving large spills from liquefied natural gas carriers

This article concerns thermal radiation hazards associated with unconfined liquefied natural gas (LNG) spills on water. Consequence assessment methods were compared to clarify their model characteristics in large-scale LNG spills from an LNG carrier (LNGC). The consequences of LNG release, pool spread, and pool fire hazards were estimated using the following practical methods: the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) method, the Sandia National Laboratories’ method, and the Fay method. The sensitivity of consequence analysis results to the breach size of a tank was examined under the assumption that LNG is released from a common type LNGC of 125000 m³ cargo capacity. Consequently, it was found that the FERC method is useful from the practical viewpoint of being applicable to any breach size. Finally, thermal radiation hazards from pool fires involving spills from one of the latest and largest LNGCs (250 000 m³ cargo capacity), which are currently considered for construction, were investigated using the recommended FERC method, and the results are discussed in comparison with those for common type LNGCs. As a result, it was found that the maximum thermal hazard distance is longer by only about 24% compared with the common type LNGC, whereas the spill volume is twice as much.     

“全球省油冠军”

美国威斯康辛州麦迪逊市,一个夏季的周六,停车场里头有十来个人围着一辆红色本田Insight,看着韦恩做准备。他即将参加油电混合动力车MPG大挑战的开幕赛,赛车手将绕行市区36公里竞技。韦恩是赢面最大的车手,但这场比赛不同一般,旨在试探汽车极限,不比速度,不求马力（在场人士一致认为比快比劲既落伍又浪费），争的反而是一个不甚性感的头衔：”全球省油冠军”。     

Directed proxy signature in the standard model

A directed signature is a type of signature with restricted verification ability. Directed signatures allow only a designated verifier to check the validity of the signature issued to him, and at the time of trouble or if necessary, any third party can verify the signature with the help of the signer or the designated verifier. Directed signature schemes are widely used in situations where the receiver’s privacy should be protected. Proxy signatures allow an entity to delegate its signing capability to another entity in such a way that the latter can sign message on behalf of the former when the former is not available. Proxy signature schemes have found numerous practical applications such as distributed systems and mobile agent applications. In this paper, we firstly define the notion of the directed proxy signature by combining the proxy signature and directed signature. Then, we formalize its security model and present a concrete scheme in the standard model. Finally, we use the techniques from provable security to show that the proposed scheme is unforgeable under the gap Diffie-Hellman assumption, and invisible under the decisional Diffie-Hellman assumption.     

Guaranteed Cost Iterative Learning Control for Multi-Phase Batch Processes

Batch process is a typical multi-phase process. Due to the interaction between the phases of the batch process, high precision control in a single phase cannot guarantee high precision control of the whole batch process. In order to solve this problem, the guaranteed cost iterative learning control (ILC) of multi-phase batch processes is studied in this paper. Firstly, through introducing the output error, the state error and the extended information, the multi-phase batch process is transformed into an equivalent 2D switched system which has different dimensions. In addition, under the measurable condition, the guaranteed cost iterative learning control law with extended information is designed. The proposed control law ensures not only the stability of the system but also the optimal control performance. Next, in order to study the stability of the system and the minimum running time under the condition of stable running, the multi-Lyapunov function method is used. By means of the average dwell time method, the sufficient conditions ensuring system to be exponentially stable are given in the form of linear matrix inequality (LMI). Finally, the injection molding process is taken as an example to make simulation, which shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.     

How much can trip chaining reduce VMT? A simplified method

Trip chaining represents a way to reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) that does not require people to shift away from driving private automobiles. While the existing literature on trip chaining acknowledges this potential, little has been done by way of quantifying this. This research seeks to fill this gap by using a large travel survey from the San Francisco Bay area to model the VMT generated by automobile tours as a function of tour composition (i.e., the number and type of destinations on that tour). The model results indicate that many tours involving trips chains (i.e., those tours with more than one destination) generate significantly less VMT than would occur if the destinations in these tours were split into multiple tours with single destinations. Tours that combine a work and non-work destination (which are the most common types of trip chains) particularly demonstrate potential for VMT reduction. Adding a non-work destination to a work tour is usually (depending on the specific type of destination) predicted to result in a reduction of 6–11 VMT, or about 20–30 %. Adding two non-work destinations to a work tour is usually predicted to result in a reduction of 10–22 VMT, or about 25–50 %.