A model for assessing the effects of dynamic travel time information via variable message signs

In view of the serious traffic congestion during peak hours in most metropolitan areas around the world and recent improvement of information technology, there is a growing aspiration to alleviate road congestion by applications of electronic information and communication technology. Providing drivers with dynamic travel time information such as estimated journey times on major routes should help drivers to select better routes and guide them to utilise existing expressway network. This can be regarded as one possible strategy for effective traffic management. This paper aims to investigate the effects and benefits of providing dynamic travel time information to drivers via variable message signs at the expressway network. In order to assess the effects of the dynamic driver information system with making use of the variable message signs, a time-dependent traffic assignment model is proposed. A numerical example is used to illustrate the effects of the dynamic travel time information via variable message signs. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Indirect production function and the output effect of public transit subsidies

This paper uses an indirect production function to decompose the effects of subsidies on output into the lump-sum, cost and inefficiency effects. Using 2006 data for U.S. transit systems it estimates an indirect production function and uses the results to calculate these effects. It finds that the lump-sum effects exceed the other effects and that the average total effect of the subsidies is a 4.72% increase in output. The range of the output change shows that in many transit systems the output increases from the subsidies are quite large. The paper suggests that reductions in allocative inefficiencies from the subsidies would result in very large increases in output.     

On the numerical accuracy of the wave load distribution on a ship advancing in short and steep waves

Defining numerical uncertainty is an important part of the practical application of a numerical method. In the case of a ship advancing in short and steep waves, little knowledge exists on the solution behaviour as a function of discretisation resolution. This paper studies an interface-capturing (VOF) solution for a passenger ship advancing in steep (kA = 0.24) and short waves (L _w /L _pp = 0.16). The focus is to estimate quantitative uncertainties for the longitudinal distributions of the first–third harmonic wave loads in the ship bow area. These estimates are derived from the results of three systematically refined discretisation resolutions. The obtained uncertainty distributions reveal that even the uncertainty of the first harmonic wave load varies significantly along the ship bow area. It is shown that the largest local uncertainties of the first harmonic wave load relate to the differences in the local details of the propagating and deforming encountered waves along the hull. This paper also discusses the challenges that were encountered in the quantification of the uncertainties for this complex flow case.     

Port system evolution – the emergence of second-tier hubs

Some evidence has emerged of second-tier hubs inserting themselves between hubs and feeder ports, producing a new hierarchy of port networks. This article aims to establish the dynamics of this process based on illustrative cases in Asia, South America, and Europe. Findings reveal spatial factors to include a cluster of small ports with minimal sailing distance within a given range, suitable channel and berth depth, and ideally high capacity inland links. From the economic perspective, demand-side factors include a local captive market and aggregated demand to be captured from other ports, while supply-side factors include diseconomies of scale at traditional hubs, an increase in direct services, an increase in large feeder vessels calling from first-tier hubs which are then transhipped to smaller feeders for serving local ports, and an increase in overland servicing of local smaller ports. From a strategic perspective, vertical and horizontal integration in the shipping sector has produced extensive network economies, whereby shipping lines look to create group-specific port hierarchies, enhanced in the presence of aggressive management strategies and supportive policies. This finding suggests that proactive port stakeholders can in certain circumstances seize the opportunity to capture this role within their port range.     

Derivation of Frequency Dependent Creep Coefficients Based on an Elastic Half-Space Model

Kalker's creep coefficients for linear rolling contact problems are only valid in the steady state case. A method for the extension of linear contact mechanics into the high frequency range is presented. Frequency dependent creep coefficients are obtained, which can be interpreted as harmonic responses of the creep forces for harmonically varying creepages. For linear investigations of contact phenomena in the high frequency range simple laws governing the Kalker coefficients C₁₁and C₂₂ are given.     

Determinants of the severity of passenger vessel accidents

This study investigates determinants of the number of injured, deceased and missing occupants and the damage cost of passenger vessel accidents that were investigated by the US Coast Guard for the years 1991-2001. Negative binomial and Poisson regression estimates suggest that: (1) passenger-freight combination vessel accidents incur greater injuries than other types of passenger vessels, (2) deaths are greater when precipitation weather and poor visibility exist and (3) missing occupants are greater for capsize accidents and larger the vessel. The damage cost per vessel gross ton is less for ocean cruise and steel-hulled vessels. The major conclusion of the study is that human (as opposed to environmental and vessel) causes of passenger vessel accidents result in increases in the number of injured, deceased and missing occupants.     

Sustainability provisions in the bus-scheduling problem

The traditional vehicle scheduling problem attempts to minimize capital and operating costs. However, the carbon footprint and toxic air pollutants have become an increasingly important consideration. This paper studies the bus-scheduling problem and evaluates new types of buses that use alternative energy sources to reduce emissions, including some toxic air pollutants and carbon dioxide. A time-space network based approach is applied to formulate the problem to reduce the numbers of arcs in the underlying network; CPLEX is used to solve the problem. The results show that the bus-scheduling model can significantly reduce the bus emissions – hence reducing the carbon footprint of the transit operation – while only slightly increasing operating costs.     

谈谈陈埭和百奇两地祠堂

在泉州城周围的一些村子里,生活着由波斯人和阿拉伯人后裔组成的群体,他们相对集中在那里的13个村庄里,最著名的有晋江陈埭和惠安百奇.其中,丁、郭、二姓是他们中最为重要的宗族.     

Determinants of crew injuries in vessel accidents

This study investigates determinants of the number of non-fatal crew injuries, fatal crew injuries and missing crew in freight ship, tanker and tugboat vessel accidents based upon individual accidents investigated by the US Coast Guard for the 1991-2001 period. Poisson and negative binomial regression estimates suggest that: (1) freight ship and tanker non-fatal injuries are higher when the vessel is moored or docked and during high winds and cold temperatures; (2) tugboat non-fatal injuries are higher during poor visibility; (3) freight ship fatal injuries increase with vessel age and tanker and tugboat fatal injuries are higher for fire and capsize accidents, respectively; and (4) freight ship missing crew increase with vessel age and tugboat missing crew are higher for fire and lake accidents.