A traffic flow simulator for short‐term travel time forecasting

This paper presents an off‐line forecasting system for short‐term travel time forecasting. These forecasts are based on the historical traffic count data provided by detectors installed on Annual Traffic Census (ATC) stations in Hong Kong. A traffic flow simulator (TFS) is developed for short‐term travel time forecasting (in terms of offline forecasting), in which the variation of perceived travel time error and the fluctuations of origin‐destination (O‐D) demand are considered explicitly. On the basis of prior O‐D demand and partial updated detector data, the TFS can estimate the link travel times and flows for the whole network together with their variances and covariances. The short‐term travel time forecasting by O‐D pair can also be assessed and the O‐D matrix can be updated simultaneously. The application of the proposed off‐line forecasting system is illustrated by a numerical example in Hong Kong.     

曲轴强度校核计算在曲轴镀铁修复中的应用

曲轴修理过程中进行曲轴剩余强度校核十分重要,结合董氏无刻蚀镀铁工艺修复十分可靠。文中以某轮曲轴修复为例,介绍了镀铁修复工艺及曲轴强度校核计算。     

特定环境下螺旋桨尾轴蠕变特性研究

针对常温下长期受到恒载荷作用下的某舰螺旋桨尾轴进行了常温蠕变分析，并对变形后的螺旋桨尾轴进行了动力分析。选择合适的蠕变模型，采用有限元法，计算出20年后尾轴的挠曲线，并对无变形的螺旋桨尾轴和蠕变变形后的螺旋桨尾轴进行模态分析，进行比较。最后计算出变形后尾轴所产生的激励和响应。经过分析计算可知，蠕变已经使尾轴性能有了实质性的降低。     

从国际海运企业购并效益谈对我国的启示

购并是企业实施外部发展战略的常规策略，在进入和退出壁垒均较高的国际海运业，购并成为形成国际性经营联合体及市场领导企业的重要途径。通过购并，国际海运市场的集中度越来越高，呈现出多寡头垄断的市场格局。购并带给海运企业的最大效益是实现了规模经济，同时还提高了购并企业的融资能力，为企业提供了获取先进技术和优秀人才的渠道，并使企业可以享受税收上的优惠。国际海运业的购并历程为正处于高速发展阶段的国内海运业提供了良好的经验借鉴。     

分散压缩型锚索在船闸工程中的运用

主要介绍京杭运河淮安市淮安三线船闸土锚施工和试验情况。在软弱土层和复杂土质情况下,利用分散压缩型锚索的结构特点,通过土锚试验、完善设计、改进施工工艺等综合措施,保证达到设计承载力,对以后土锚的应用与发展起很大的作用。     

Analysis of Driver's Decelerating Strategy in a Car-following Situation

This report describes a decelerating driver-model expressed by driving mode transition in car-following situations. The assumptions for constructing the model are that decelerating strategy of a driver is classified into several simple driving modes and that a driver changs his driving modes based on his perceptible characteristics and experiential rules. Deceleration action is divided into three states; following, standing and braking, which are applied to the model. The model has two paths for driver's decelerating action, one of which is selected by the driver based on the perceptible characteristics and experiential rules. The suitability of the model has been experimentally verified.     

高速公路养护管理信息系统特点及主要功能分析

高速公路养护管理机构一般由管理处、养护管理站、验收小组及监理组成,在长距离的跨度上进行分工协作完成公路病害调查与养护施工等系列事务,必须要通过网络把各机构连接起来。高速公路养护管理信息系统主要特点是适时、高效,其主要功能是病害数据采集、养护施工与验收、评价与智能化决策。它涵盖GIS系统、专家系统、办公系统、档案与设备系统,是一个功能强大的专业网络。     

网络化作战系统——指挥控制中枢的革命

综合比较综合控制式作战系统与网络化作战系统（NOS）,阐述应用网络化作战系统所拥有的崭新的作战效能、前所未有的抗损能力及快捷的应变能力。综合分析网络化作战系统出现的背景,着重论述开发网络化作战系统对提升作战系统效能及解决装备建设问题的优势所在,即可解决装备发展周期过长问题,小型作战平台普及及指挥系统问题,以及传统技术体系对装备发展机制的束缚问题。     

Impact of information technology on public transport fares data

The work described was undertaken as part of the CASSIOPE project in the EC DRIVE programme. A range of fare collection procedures in public transport is described, and the importance of these for data collection by operators is stressed. It is suggested that such data management could be standardized and to this end four case studies were carried out in different European cities. Data models were built for each city, and these models are merged into a preliminary version of a generalized model. The need and uses for such a fare collection data model is explained.