Future cost scenarios for reduction of ship CO2 emissions

International shipping is a significant contributor to Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, responsible for approximately 3% of global CO₂ emissions. The International Maritime Organization is currently working to establish GHG regulations for international shipping and a cost effectiveness approach has been suggested to determine the required emission reductions from shipping. To achieve emission reductions in a cost effective manner, this study has assessed the cost and reduction potential for present and future abatement measures based on new and unpublished data. The model used captures the world fleet up to 2030, and the analysis includes 25 separate measures. A new integrated modelling approach has been used combining fleet projections with activity-based CO₂ emission modelling and projected development of measures for CO₂ emission reduction. The world fleet projections up to 2030 are constructed using a fleet growth model that takes into account assumed ship type specific scrapping and new building rates. A baseline trajectory for CO₂ emission is then established. The reduction potential from the baseline trajectory and the associated marginal cost levels are calculated for 25 different emission reduction measures. The results are given as marginal abatement cost curves, and as future cost scenarios for reduction of world fleet CO₂ emissions. The results show that a scenario in which CO₂ emissions are reduced by 33% from baseline in 2030 is achievable at a marginal cost of USD 0 per tonne reduced. At this cost level, emission in 2010 can be reduced by 19% and by 24% in 2020. A scenario with 49% reduction from baseline in 2030 can be achieved at a marginal cost of USD 100 per tonne (27% in 2010 and 35% in 2020). Furthermore, it is evident that further increasing the cost level beyond USD 100 per tonne yield very little in terms of further emission reduction. The results also indicate that stabilising fleet emissions at current levels is obtainable at moderate costs, compensating for fleet growth up to 2030. However, significant reductions beyond current levels seem difficult to achieve. Marginal abatement costs for the major ship types are also calculated, and the results are shown to be relatively homogenous for all major ship types. The presented data and methodology could be very useful for assisting the industry and policymakers in selecting cost effective solutions for reducing GHG emissions from the world fleet.     

Optimal portfolio choice for ship leasing investments

ABSTRACT

We develop an advanced portfolio analysis method to determine the optimal ship mix for a portfolio. A typical business model of a ship leasing firm is to acquire ships for charter income. However, transportation assets (such as ships and aircraft) are different from financial assets (e.g. stocks and bonds) as they are tangible and have a limited useful life. Thus, methodologies for financial portfolios cannot be simply extended to portfolios of transportation assets. Recently, ship leasing represents a non-traditional source of ship finance. A ship leasing firm can manage a certain number of ships across different ship types. Based on portfolio theory and industry-related evidence, we construct an optimal ship portfolio consisting of a manageable combination of carefully chosen ships. The expected return of the asset combination is examined with respect to various ship types and sizes. We quantify the freight risk for different categories of ships in different sectors to investigate the characteristics of ship portfolios. The estimation of such freight risk is of considerable interest to academics and practitioners alike, because determining the behaviour of freight risk has important implications for investment decisions regarding ships. Our portfolio method should strongly support the decision-making process involved in leasing ships.     

Indirect Effects to Include in Strategic Environmental Assessments of Transport Infrastructure Investments

Abstract

Indirect effects are important considerations when making consequence analyses in general and in strategic environmental assessments in particular of potential transport solutions and infrastructure plans. The primary objective of this paper is to emphasize the need for a deeper understanding of the long‐term system effects of investments in transport infrastructure with a focus on the structuring effects that roads and railways have on society, e.g. altered transport patterns, altered settlement structures and changes in use of the built environment. Special attention is given to the following potential indirect effects: increased total transport volume, increased share of private motorists and truck transport, increased urban sprawl, and increased energy use in buildings. The conditions that determine the power of the effects are discussed and a number of key factors to be considered in transport infrastructure planning, especially in strategic environmental assessments, are suggested. Since many indirect effects emerge over time, an extended time perspective is of essence. Therefore, scenario techniques may be useful when analysing indirect effects in transport planning processes.     

Port Economics,Policy and Management: Content Classification and Survey

This paper presents a taxonomy and analysis of the content of published research in port economics, policy and management (port studies). The recent increase of these publications suggests a growing interest in the study of ports. However, the research characteristics and directions of this research field are unidentified. This paper provides a systematic analysis of port studies published during the period 1997–2008. A comprehensive cross-citation and analysis of the themes, approaches and findings of all 395 relevant journal papers identifies the extent to which the research field is maturing, and the leading papers. This paper also presents an extensive analysis of the content, based on the classification of all port studies into seven research themes. For each theme, research topics, widely used research questions, concepts and research methods and the most important research findings are discussed. Finally, we identify emerging research challenges and research questions that still need to be answered.     

Evaluating erosion susceptibility for land‐use planning in coastal watersheds

Abstract

This paper reports on research conducted in support of a coastal zone management effort to reduce erosion and sedimentation impacts in a wetland watershed, Elkhorn Slough, Monterey County, California. The research reviews methods of determining soil erosion susceptibility and relating it to land‐use intensity within the watershed, measured by a land disturbance index. Erosion susceptibility is measured in three ways: by a combination of slope and the erosion factor of the Universal Soil Loss Equation; by field measurement of erosion and deposition on selected sites; and by computer‐assisted terrain analysis of data from secondary sources. Land use is shown to be a more important factor than landform in influencing relative erosion susceptibility.     

有限水深中垂直下潜弹性薄板的水波散射(英文)

The problem of water wave scattering by a thin vertical elastic plate submerged in uniform finite depth water is investigated here.The boundary condition on the elastic plate is derived from the Bernoulli-Euler equation of motion satisfied by the plate.Using the Green’s function technique,from this boundary condition,the normal velocity of the plate is expressed in terms of the difference between the velocity potentials(unknown)across the plate.The two ends of the plate are either clamped or free.The reflection and transmission coefficients are obtained in terms of the integrals’involving combinations of the unknown velocity potential on the two sides of the plate,which satisfy three simultaneous integral equations and are solved numerically.These coefficients are computed numerically for various values of different parameters and depicted graphically against the wave number in a number of figures.     

Numerical simulation of 2D and 3D sloshing waves in a regularly and randomly excited container

In this paper,various aspects of the 2D and 3D nonlinear liquid sloshing problems in vertically excited containers have been studied numerically along with the help of a modified-transformation.Based on this new numerical algorithm,a numerical study on a regularly and randomly excited container in vertical direction was conducted utilizing four different cases： The first case was performed utilizing a 2D container with regular excitations.The next case examined a regularly excited 3D container with two different initial conditions for the liquid free surface,and finally,3D container with random excitation in the vertical direction.A grid independence study was performed along with a series of validation tests.An iteration error estimation method was used to stop the iterative solver（used for solving the discretized governing equations in the computational domain） upon reaching steady state of results at each time step.In the present case,this method was found to produce quite accurate results and to be more time efficient as compared to other conventional stopping procedures for iterative solvers.The results were validated with benchmark results.The wave elevation time history,phase plane diagram and surface plots represent the wave nonlinearity during its motion.     

PIV study of the effect of piston position on the in-cylinder swirling flow during the scavenging process in large two-stroke marine diesel engines

A simplified model of a low speed large two-stroke marine diesel engine cylinder is developed. The effect of piston position on the in-cylinder swirling flow during the scavenging process is studied using the stereoscopic particle image velocimetry technique. The measurements are conducted at different cross-sectional planes along the cylinder length and at piston positions covering the air intake port by 0, 25, 50 and 75 %. When the intake port is fully open, the tangential velocity profile is similar to a Burgers vortex, whereas the axial velocity has a wake-like profile. Due to internal wall friction, the swirl decays downstream, and the size of the vortex core increases. For increasing port closures, the tangential velocity profile changes from a Burgers vortex to a forced vortex, and the axial velocity changes correspondingly from a wake-like profile to a jet-like profile. For piston position with 75 % intake port closure, the jet-like axial velocity profile at a cross-sectional plane close to the intake port changes back to a wake-like profile at the adjacent downstream cross-sectional plane. This is characteristic of a vortex breakdown. The non-dimensional velocity profiles show no significant variation with the variation in Reynolds number.     

Reduction of emissions with propane addition to a diesel engine

Recent studies on dual-fuel combustion in compression-ignition (CI) engines, also known as diesel engines, fall into two categories. In the first category are studies focused on the addition of small amounts of gaseous fuel to CI engines. In these studies, gaseous fuel is regarded as a secondary fuel and diesel fuel is regarded as the main fuel for combustion. The objectives of these studies typically involve reducing particulate matter (PM) emissions by using gaseous fuel as a partial substitution for diesel fuel. However, the addition of gaseous fuel raises the combustion temperature, which increases emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x). In the second category are studies focused on reactivity-controlled compression-ignition (RCCI) combustion. RCCI combustion can be implemented by early diesel injection with a large amount of low-reactivity fuel such as gasoline or gaseous fuel. Although RCCI combustion promises lower NO_x and PM emissions and higher thermal efficiency than conventional diesel combustion, it requires a higher intake pressure (usually more than 1.7 bars) to maintain a lean fuel mixture. Therefore, in this study, practical applications of dual-fuel combustion with a low air-fuel ratio (AFR), which implies a low intake pressure, were systemically evaluated using propane in a diesel engine. The characteristics of dualfuel combustion for high and low AFRs were first evaluated. The proportion of propane used for four different operating conditions was then increased to decrease emissions and to identify the optimal condition for dual-fuel combustion. Although the four operating conditions differ, the AFR was maintained at 20 (? approximately equal to 0.72) and the 50% mass fraction burned (MFB 50) was also fixed. The results show that dual-fuel combustion can reduce NO_x and PM emissions in comparison to conventional diesel combustion.