A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip

A stated preference experiment was performed in Calgary in Canada to examine how people are influenced in the selection of a departure time for a hypothetical trip to see a movie. A total of 635 complete observations were obtained. In each observation the respondent was presented with a set of possible departure time scenarios and asked to indicate the order of preference for these scenarios. Each scenario was described by specifying the automobile travel time, the expected arrival time relative to the movie start time, the parking cost, the probability of being at least ten minutes late for the movie and the length of time the movie had been running. This forced the respondent to trade off between conditions regarding these attributes. Age, gender and frequency of movie attendance were also recorded. The observations thus obtained were used to estimate the parameter values for a range of alternative utility functions in logit models representing this choice behaviour. The results indicate that all of the attributes included have significant effects on departure time choice in the situation being considered. They also indicate that travellers are prepared to arrive roughly two minutes early for each minute of travel time saved; that the money value of driving time for trips to recreational activities is about half that for trips to work; that one additional percent in the probability of arriving late is equivalent to roughly 0.20 Canadian dollars or 1.93 minutes drive time; and that there is a preference for a non-zero expected early arrival time regardless of the associated probability of arriving late. Some of these results are novel and others are consistent with findings for work trips in work done by others, which is seen to add credence to the approach being used here.     

Stabilization Control for Rider-Motorcycle Model in Hamiltonian Form

This study deals with dynamics and control of a rider-motorcycle system model in Hamiltonian form. The model is established to account for not only the motorcycle dynamics but also changes in rider's postures. Tyre forces are treated as external forces and rider's control actions contain three actuation torques. The Hamiltonian system is subject to dissipation effects due to tyre forces and rider's control torques. In addition to the total Hamiltonian, a generalized free energy is employed in formulation. Lyapunov's second method provides sufficient conditions for stability. Variable structure system (VSS) control is used to account for stabilization control exerted by the rider. Simulation results validate the proposed method.     

A chance-constrained based stochastic dynamic traffic assignment model: Analysis, formulation and solution algorithms

This paper is concerned with the system optimum-dynamic traffic assignment (SO-DTA) problem when the time-dependent demands are random variables with known probability distributions. The model is a stochastic extension of a deterministic linear programming formulation for SO-DTA introduced by Ziliaskopoulos (Ziliaskopoulos, A.K., 2000. A linear programming model for the single destination system optimum dynamic traffic assignment problem, Transportation Science, 34, 1–12). The proposed formulation is chance-constrained based and we demonstrate that it provides a robust SO solution with a user specified level of reliability. The model provides numerous insights and can be a useful tool in producing robust control and management strategies that account for uncertainty in applications where SO-DTA is relevant (e.g. evacuation modeling, computing alternate routes around freeway incidents and establishing lower bounds on network performance).     

Using a random displacement model to simulate turbulent particle motion in a baroclinic frontal zone: A new implementation scheme and model performance tests

Numerical artifacts can limit accurate simulation of turbulent particle motion when Lagrangian particle-tracking models are implemented in hydrodynamic models with stratified conditions like fronts. Yet, modeling of individual particle motion in frontal regions is critical for understanding sediment dynamics as well as the transport and retention of planktonic organisms. The objective of this research was to develop a numerical technique to accurately simulate turbulent particle motions in a particle-tracking model embedded within a hydrodynamic model of a frontal zone. A new interpolation scheme, the ‘water column profile’ scheme, was developed and used to implement a random displacement model for turbulent particle motions. A new interpolation scheme was necessary because linear interpolation schemes caused artificial aggregation of particles where abrupt changes in vertical diffusivity occurred. The new ‘water column profile’ scheme was used to fit a continuous function (a tension spline) to a smoothed profile of vertical diffusivities at the x–y particle location. The new implementation scheme was checked for artifacts and compared with a standard random walk model using (1) Well Mixed Condition tests, and (2) dye-release experiments. The Well Mixed Condition tests confirmed that the use of the ‘water column profile’ interpolation scheme for implementing the random displacement model significantly reduced numerical artifacts. In dye-release experiments, high concentrations of Eulerian tracer and Lagrangian particles were released at the same location up-estuary of the salt front and tracked for 4 days. After small differences in initial dispersal rates, tracer and particle distributions remained highly correlated (r = 0.84 to 0.99) when a random displacement model was implemented in the particle-tracking model. In contrast, correlation coefficients were substantially lower (r = 0.07 to 0.58) when a random walk model was implemented. In general, model performance tests indicated that the ‘water column interpolation’ scheme was an effective technique for implementing a random displacement model within a hydrodynamic model, and both could be used to accurately simulate diffusion in a highly baroclinic frontal region. The new implementation scheme has the potential to be a useful tool for investigating the influence of hydrodynamic variability on the transport of sediment particles and planktonic organisms in frontal zones.     

底部薄板附近的水流及泥沙运动特性

通过水槽实验探讨了在饱和来沙条件下底部薄板附近的水流、泥沙运动特性,包括不同薄板高度、与水流不同夹角的安装方向等情况下,单个底部薄板附近的水流结构、泥沙运动规律、底部薄板的导沙特性及其附近的冲淤现象,以及底部薄板群体的导沙特性。试验结果表明,实验使用的薄板的长度对实验结果影响很大,过短的薄板实验根本观察不到薄板前冲刷沟内的沙波运动,而该沙波运动严重影响薄板的导沙效应。底部薄板附近的水流结构具有强烈的三维特性,流场复杂,对于一定的薄板,水流夹角、沙波的运动是影响薄板的导流导沙促淤的主要因素。     

Use of an activity-based diary to collect household travel data

The paper describes the results of a pilot survey that used a one-day activity diary to collect origin-destination data, as opposed to a travel-based diary. The design of the diary is discussed, together with a comparison to a more conventional travel diary. The paper examines the extent to which the activity diary appears to have been capable of collecting good travel data that is at least comparable to travel diary efforts. In addition, a substantial portion of the paper is concerned with a comparison of the retrieval methods for the diaries. Two alternative methods were pilot-tested, one being the use of telephone retrieval and the other being mailback retrieval. Although the pilot test used small samples, the evidence appears to be strong that mailback is preferable to telephone retrieval, while telephone retrieval did not seem capable of providing some of the benefits often ascribed to it.     

Trading strategies in the market for tankers

This paper introduces a new approach in timing the sale and purchase of ships in the tanker market and examines the performance of this trading strategy over the period January 1976 to September 2004. Based on the long-run cointegration relationship between earnings and price, we establish a trading model which can be used as an indicator of investment or divestment timing decisions. We also perform statistical tests using the bootstrap approach in order to discount the possibility of data snooping biases and test the robustness of our trading models. Our results indicate that trading strategies based on earning-price ratios significantly out-perform buy and hold strategies in the tanker market.     

Performance Potential and Power Consumption of Slow-Active Suspension Systems with Preview

Two possible layouts of a slow-active suspension model are analysed. Optimal control laws for different actuator bandwidths and various amounts of road preview are generated, and estimates of power consumption are made. Higher bandwidth systems (10Hz) require less preview to obtain a given level of performance than those with a lower bandwidth (3Hz) but use more energy in doing so. Similar performance is available from the two systems considered, although the second uses considerably less energy to obtain that performance.     

Biochemical composition of marine sediment from the eastern Weddell Sea (Antarctica): High nutritive value in a high benthic-biomass environment

Within the SCAR's international EASIZ programme, as part of the benthic–pelagic coupling experiment, grain size and organic matter contents in marine surface sediment were measured. Samples were taken during the austral autumn of 2000 from 3 regions in the eastern Weddell Sea: Kapp Norvegia, Four Seasons Bank, and Austasen.In general, sediments were fine sand with a grain size fraction < 200 μm representing more than 40% of the total weight. The sediments from Four Seasons Bank (64 to 107 m depth) were coarser than those from Austasen and Kapp Norvegia (209 to 480 m depth), presumably due to winnowing of fine sediment at shallow depths. Organic carbon (OC) content ranged from 0.25% to 1.2% and constituted 10% to 97% of the total carbon. The samples from Kapp Norvegia presented the highest OC values. Overall, protein (PRT), lipid (LPD), and carbohydrate (CHO) contents were similar to those in sediment from cold regions (e.g., the North Atlantic and the Ross Sea) but higher than those in sediment from other Antarctic and more septentrional regions (e.g., the Ross Sea and the Mediterranean). The difference within the Antarctic is explained through the local conditions in Terra Nova Bay and Kapp Norvegia. In the Antarctic, PRT and LPD carbon were the main contributors to the biopolymeric carbon (BPC). In the eastern Weddell Sea shelf, the BPC accounted for more than 90% of the OC in most of the samples. More than 82% of the total PRT, LPD, and CHO were present in the fraction < 200 μm. This work remarks the existence of sediments with a high nutritional value persistent several weeks after the spring–summer pulse of fresh organic matter. It is also highlighted the high potential availability of these sediments (due to its grain size) for the benthic communities inhabiting this high-latitude continental shelf.