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411.
This paper addresses the issue of using before and after surveys to evaluate behavioural changes in response to transport
policies and investments, a procedure that, we argue is done far too rarely in this profession. Further, it demonstrates very
clearly that, in almost all conceivable cases, there are considerable economies to be obtained by using a panel (again, under-utilised
in our profession) to undertake evaluation, rather than successive independent cross-sectional surveys. The paper also addresses
the critical issue of sample size requirements for measuring changes of a relatively small magnitude in travel behaviour;
i.e., to state, with 95% confidence, that if there is a ∂ percent change in behaviour for the sample, there is a ∂ percent ± e
percent change in the behaviour of the population, where e is the sampling error. In this paper, we present a method for calculating such sample size requirements from first principles
and demonstrate the applicability both hypothetically and then empirically using data from the Puget Sound Transportation
Panel. The formulation enables designers of before and after surveys to investigate the trade-offs between the statistical
accuracy of their predictions and the sample size requirements systematically, without the need to specify ∂ a priori. This
latter point is crucial, we argue, because we have limited information on ∂, yet, as we explain here, it drives the sample
size requirements using alternative, well-cited approaches for calculating sample sizes to assess behavioural change. The
results have important ramifications both for those implementing transport policies intended to produce behavioural change,
especially when a cost-benefit evaluation of the policy is desired, and for those interpreting the results reported in previous
studies. 相似文献
412.
Influences on bicycle use 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
A stated preference experiment was performed in Edmonton in Canada to both examine the nature of various influences on bicycle
use and obtain ratios among parameter values to be used in the development of a larger simulation of household travel behaviour.
A total of 1128 questionnaires were completed and returned by current cyclists. Each questionnaire presented a pair of possible
bicycle use alternatives and asked which was preferred for travel to a hypothetical all-day meeting or gathering (business
or social). Alternatives were described by specifying the amounts of time spent on three different types of cycling facility
and whether or not showers and/or secure bicycle parking were available at the destination. Indications of socio-economic
character and levels of experience and comfort regarding cycling were also collected. The observations thus obtained were
used to estimate the parameter values for a range of different utility functions in logit models representing this choice
behaviour. The results indicate, among other things, that time spent cycling in mixed traffic is more onerous than time spent
cycling on bike lanes or bike paths; that secure parking is more important than showers at the destination; and that cycling
times on roadways tend to become less onerous as level of experience increases. Some of these results are novel and others
are consistent with findings regarding bicycle use in work done by others, which is seen to add credence to this work. A review
of previous findings concerning influences on cycling behaviour is also included. 相似文献
413.
Martin F. Diez-Picazo 《WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs》2007,6(2):241-247
A cross-cutting Maritime Policy can ensure that climate change threats and challenges in regards to seas and oceans are dealt
with in a wide policy framework that takes into account the impacts that climate change may have on other sectors and vice
versa. 相似文献
414.
This paper investigates the relationship between the dwelling time of trains and the crowding situations at Mass Transit Railway (MTR) stations in Hong Kong. Regression models were established for the dwelling delays of trains due to congestion at stations, and a simulation model making use of the Monte-Carlo technique is developed to assess the reliability of the estimated train dwelling time. Therefore, the distribution and the confidence interval of the train dwelling time can be predicted on the basis of observed boarding and alighting distributions. 相似文献
415.
Wayne K. Talley 《Transportation Research Part B: Methodological》1983,17(4):319-331
This paper considers costing criteria to evaluate various single capacity and alternative capacity rules for allocating shared costs among transportation movements (i.e. determining fully allocated costs). The costing evaluation criteria are: (1) core allocations, (2) encourages internally efficient capacity decisions, (3) fairness, and (4) low computation costs. The principal conclusion of the paper is that alternative capacity rules for allocating shared-capacity costs among transportation movements are generally superior to single capacity rules that have been used by the Interstate Commerce Commission. 相似文献
416.
417.
418.
Analytical Tire Models for Dynamic Vehicle Simulation 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
K. M. Captain Manager A. B. Boghani Program Manager D. N. Wormley Professor of Mechanical Engineering 《Vehicle System Dynamics: International Journal of Vehicle Mechanics and Mobility》1979,8(1):1-32
Four basic tire models suitable for dynamic vehicle simulation are formulated. The models are compared through a six-degree-of-freedom nonlinear simulation of a cargo truck crossing rough ground. Guidelines are developed for the selection of an optimum tire model for a given dynamic vehicle simulation. 相似文献
419.
D. K. Y. Chu 《Maritime Policy and Management》1979,6(4):293-303
Projections of the future traffic demand of British seaports are of great importance to port management bodies because of the huge capital investment required for installing modern port facilities. In this paper, the author uses a first order Markov Chain model to forecast the non-fuel cargo traffic demand of the major British seaports in 1980 and 1985. 相似文献
420.
A model for assessing the effects of dynamic travel time information via variable message signs 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
In view of the serious traffic congestion during peak hours in most metropolitan areas around the world and recent improvement
of information technology, there is a growing aspiration to alleviate road congestion by applications of electronic information
and communication technology. Providing drivers with dynamic travel time information such as estimated journey times on major
routes should help drivers to select better routes and guide them to utilise existing expressway network. This can be regarded
as one possible strategy for effective traffic management. This paper aims to investigate the effects and benefits of providing
dynamic travel time information to drivers via variable message signs at the expressway network. In order to assess the effects
of the dynamic driver information system with making use of the variable message signs, a time-dependent traffic assignment
model is proposed. A numerical example is used to illustrate the effects of the dynamic travel time information via variable
message signs.
This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献