A traffic flow simulator for short‐term travel time forecasting

This paper presents an off‐line forecasting system for short‐term travel time forecasting. These forecasts are based on the historical traffic count data provided by detectors installed on Annual Traffic Census (ATC) stations in Hong Kong. A traffic flow simulator (TFS) is developed for short‐term travel time forecasting (in terms of offline forecasting), in which the variation of perceived travel time error and the fluctuations of origin‐destination (O‐D) demand are considered explicitly. On the basis of prior O‐D demand and partial updated detector data, the TFS can estimate the link travel times and flows for the whole network together with their variances and covariances. The short‐term travel time forecasting by O‐D pair can also be assessed and the O‐D matrix can be updated simultaneously. The application of the proposed off‐line forecasting system is illustrated by a numerical example in Hong Kong.     

Analysis of Driver's Decelerating Strategy in a Car-following Situation

This report describes a decelerating driver-model expressed by driving mode transition in car-following situations. The assumptions for constructing the model are that decelerating strategy of a driver is classified into several simple driving modes and that a driver changs his driving modes based on his perceptible characteristics and experiential rules. Deceleration action is divided into three states; following, standing and braking, which are applied to the model. The model has two paths for driver's decelerating action, one of which is selected by the driver based on the perceptible characteristics and experiential rules. The suitability of the model has been experimentally verified.     

Mathematical Modelling of Vibrations and Loading of Railway Tanks Taking into Account the Liquid Cargo Mobility

Dynamics and loading of railway tank cars transporting liquid cargo are investigated. The approach based on the mechanical-pendulum analogy for the liquid cargo mobility simulation is proposed. Hydrodynamic parameters of the mechanical analogy are determined using the solution of the boundary-value problem for the liquid cargo vibrations in a cavity with the tank boiler shape. The fitting of the developed mathematical models is proved by comparison of calculated results and test data. Vibration characteristics and loading of tank-cars under their shunt collisions and motion along straight and curved track in trains are evaluated. It is shown that as a rule the liquid cargo mobility has an essential influence on tank dynamic properties.     

Driver requirements and road traffic informatics

Initially the driver's role as a link in the driver-vehicle-road-traffic control-chain is discussed in a historical perspective. The gradual changes and the advantages and problems arising from these changes are discussed from behavioural point of view.Then the driver tasks are analyzed. A separation is made between trip planning, navigation, road following, traffic interaction, rule compliance, other than traffic tasks, car handling and speed choice. The relations between and the weights of these subtasks are discussed. Some existing driver behaviour models are reviewed in relation to the above mentioned tasks.Finally an effort is made based on the analyses of driver tasks and driver models to specify some general and some more specific potential advantages and problems with expected future RTI-systems.     

Coupled transport-reaction pathways and distribution patterns between siliciclastic-carbonate sediments at the Ria de Vigo

This paper examines the linkages between the space-distribution of grain sizes and the relative percentage of the amount of mineral species that result from the mixing process of siliciclastic and carbonate sediments at the Ria de Vigo (NW of Spain).The space-distribution of minerals was initially determined, starting from a detailed mineralogical study based on XRD-Rietveld analysis of the superficial sediments. Correlations between the maps obtained for grain sizes, average fractions of either siliciclastic or carbonates, as well as for individual-minerals, were further stabilised. From this analysis, spatially organized patterns were found between carbonates and several minerals involved in the siliciclastic fraction. In particular, a coupled behaviour is observed between plagioclases and carbonates, in terms of their relative percentage amounts and the grain size distribution.In order to explain these results a conceptual model is proposed, based on the interplay between chemical processes at the seawater–sediment interface and hydrodynamical factors. This model suggests the existence of chemical control mechanisms that, by selective processes of dissolution-crystallization, constrain the mixed environment's long-term evolution, inducing the formation of self-organized sedimentary patterns.     

The design of bus route systems — An interactive location-allocation approach

An interactive modelling approach is developed to solve the practical problem of bus route network design. Possible bus routes are identified with facilities which can be located. Zones or pairs of zones in the urban area are identified with customers who will be allocated to the established facilities. It is shown that the classical Set Covering Problem is useful under the assumption of fixed demand; the Simple Plant Location Problem is effective under the assumption of demand which is sensitive to the level of bus service provided.     

A simple formulation for predicting the ultimate strength of ships

The aim of this study is to derive a simple analytical formula for predicting the ultimate collapse strength of a single- and double-hull ship under a vertical bending moment, and also to characterize the accuracy and applicability for earlier approximate formulations. It is known that a ship hull will reach the overall collapse state if both collapse of the compression flange and yielding of the tension flange occur. Side shells in the vicinity of the compression and the tension flanges will often fail also, but the material around the final neutral axis will remain in the elastic state. Based on this observation, a credible distribution of longitudinal stresses around the hull section at the overall collapse state is assumed, and an explicit analytical equation for calculating the hull ultimate strength is obtained. A comparison between the derived formula and existing expressions is made for largescale box girder models, a one-third-scale frigate hull model, and full-scale ship hulls.List of symbols A _B total sectional area of outer bottom - A _B total sectional area of inner bottom - A _D total sectional area of deck - A _S half-sectional area of all sides (including longitudinal bulkheads and inner sides) - a _s sectional area of a longitudinal stiffener with effective plating - b breadth of plate between longitudinal stiffeners - D hull depth - D _B height of double bottom - E Young's modulus - g neutral axis position above the base line in the sagging condition or below the deck in the hogging condition - H depth of hull section in linear elastic state - I _s moment of inertia of a longitudinal stiffener with effective plating - l length of a longitudinal stiffener between transverse beams - M _E elastic bending moment - M _p fully plastic bending moment of hull section - M _u ultimate bending moment capacity of hull section - M _uh ,M _us ultimate bending moment in hogging or sagging conditions - r radius of gyration of a longitudinal stiffener with effective plating [=(I _s /a _s )^1/2] - t plate thickness - Z elastic section modulus at the compression flange - Z _B ,Z _D elastic section modulus at bottom or deck - slenderness ratio of plate between stiffeners [= (b/t)(_y/E)^1/2] - slenderness ratio of a longitudinal stiffener with effective plating [=(l/r)(_y/E)^1/2] - _y yield strength of the material - _yB , _yB , _yD yield strength of outer bottom, inner bottom - _yS deck, or side - _u ultimate buckling strength of the compression flange - _uB , _uB , _uD ultimate buckling strength of outer bottom - _uS inner bottom, deck, or side     

Surf-riding and oscillations of a ship in quartering waves

The behavior of a ship encountering large regular waves from astern at low frequency is the object of investigation, with a parallel study of surf-riding and periodic motion paterns. First, the theoretical analysis of surf-riding is extended from purely following to quartering seas. Steady-state continuation is used to identify all possible surf-riding states for one wavelength. Examination of stability indicates the existence of stable and unstable states and predicts a new type of oscillatory surf-riding. Global analysis is also applied to determine the areas of state space which lead to surf-riding for a given ship and wave conditions. In the case of overtaking waves, the large rudder-yaw-surge oscillations of the vessel are examined, showing the mechanism and conditions responsible for loss of controllability at certain vessel headings.List of symbols c wave celerity (m/s) - C(p) roll damping moment (Ntm) - g acceleration of gravity (m/s²) - GM metacentric height (m) - H wave height (m) - I _x ,I _z roll and yaw ship moments of inertia (kg m²) - k wave number (m^–1) - K _H ,K _W ,K _R hull reaction, wave, rudder, and propeller - K _p forces in the roll direction (Ntm) - m ship mass (kg) - n propeller rate of rotation (rpm) - N _H ,N _W ,N _R hull reaction, wave, rudder, and propeller - N _P moments in the yaw direction (Ntm) - p roll angular velocity (rad/s) - r rate-of-turn (rad/s) - R(,x) restoring moment (Ntm) - Res(u) ship resistance (Nt) - t time (s) - u surge velocity (m/s) - U vessel speed (m/s) - v sway velocity (m/s) - W ship weight (Nt) - x longitudinal position of the ship measured from the wave system (m) - x _G ,z _G longitudinal and vertical center of gravity (m) - x _S longitudinal position of a ship section (S), in the ship-fixed system (m) - X _H ,X _W ,X _R hull reaction, wave, rudder, and propeller - X _P forces in the surge direction (Nt) - y transverse position of the ship, measured from the wave system (m) - Y _H ,Y _W ,Y _R hull reaction, wave, rudder, and propeller - Y _p forces in the sway direction (Nt) - z _Y vertical position of the point of action of the lateral reaction force during turn (m) - z _W vertical position of the point of action of the lateral wave force (m) Greek symbols angle of drift (rad) - rudder angle (rad) - wavelength (m) - position of the ship in the earth-fixed system (m) - water density (kg/m³) - angle of heel (rad) - heading angle (rad) - _e frequency of encounter (rad/s) Hydrodynamic coefficients K roll added mass - N _v ,N _r yaw acceleration coefficients - N _v N _r N _rr N _rrv ,N _vvr yaw velocity coefficients K. Spyrou: Ship behavior in quartering waves - X _u surge acceleration coefficient - X _u X _vr surge velocity coefficients - Y _v ,Y _r sway acceleration coefficients - Y _v ,Y _r ,Y _vv ,Y _rr ,Y _vr sway velocity coefficients European Union-nominated Fellow of the Science and Technology Agency of Japan, Visiting Researcher, National Research Institute of Fisheries Engineering of Japan     

Train scheduling simulation that minimises operational conflicts due to service constraints

This paper presents an attempt made to facilitate re‐scheduling of trains to minimize operational delays and accommodate uniform headways for off peak sub urban services subject to resource constraints such as locomotive availability, poor track conditions and stations without siding facilities. The paper describes the computer simulation model designed to optimize train schedules on single‐track rail lines. Using this simulation program it is possible to plan and optimize timetables for railway networks with train runs within short time periods for both single track and double track conditions. The paper describes the capabilities of presenting the results of the simulation runs. These include the time‐distance graph, the network with train movements, dialog boxes with information about selected trains. The programme is capable of changing the starting point, departure time, train destinations and adding or deleting a stop etc. from the user interface. Four objects of array variables are used in the simulation process to keep train and station data. Two object arrays are used for the train movements in up and down directions. The stations' data are stored in the other two object arrays. One of these arrays of stations contains all the stations of the line while the other one contains only the stations with siding facilities. A case study that covers a 61 km long single‐track line with 14 stations is presented to highlight the model capabilities.     

Spatial Dynamics of Multibody Tracked Vehicles Part II: Contact Forces and Simulation Results

In this part of the paper, three dimensional computational capabilities, that includes significant details, are developed for the nonlinear dynamic analysis of large scale spatial tracked vehicles. Three dimensional nonlinear contact force models that describe the interaction between the track links and the vehicle components such as the rollers, sprockets, and idlers as well as the interaction between the track links and the ground are developed and used to define the generalized contact forces associated with the vehicle generalized coordinates. Tangential friction and contact forces are developed in order to maintain the stability of the track motion and avoid the slippage of the track or its rotation as a rigid body. Body and surface coordinate systems are introduced in order to define the spatial contact conditions. The nonlinear equations of motion of the tracked vehicle are solved using the velocity transformation procedure developed in the first part of this paper. This procedure is used in order to obtain a minimum set of differential equations, and avoid the use of the iterative Newton-Raphson algorithm. A computer simulation of a tracked vehicle that consists of one hundred and six bodies and has one hundred and sixteen degrees of freedom is presented in order to demonstrate the use of the formulations presented in this study.