A chance-constrained based stochastic dynamic traffic assignment model: Analysis, formulation and solution algorithms

This paper is concerned with the system optimum-dynamic traffic assignment (SO-DTA) problem when the time-dependent demands are random variables with known probability distributions. The model is a stochastic extension of a deterministic linear programming formulation for SO-DTA introduced by Ziliaskopoulos (Ziliaskopoulos, A.K., 2000. A linear programming model for the single destination system optimum dynamic traffic assignment problem, Transportation Science, 34, 1–12). The proposed formulation is chance-constrained based and we demonstrate that it provides a robust SO solution with a user specified level of reliability. The model provides numerous insights and can be a useful tool in producing robust control and management strategies that account for uncertainty in applications where SO-DTA is relevant (e.g. evacuation modeling, computing alternate routes around freeway incidents and establishing lower bounds on network performance).     

底部薄板附近的水流及泥沙运动特性

通过水槽实验探讨了在饱和来沙条件下底部薄板附近的水流、泥沙运动特性,包括不同薄板高度、与水流不同夹角的安装方向等情况下,单个底部薄板附近的水流结构、泥沙运动规律、底部薄板的导沙特性及其附近的冲淤现象,以及底部薄板群体的导沙特性。试验结果表明,实验使用的薄板的长度对实验结果影响很大,过短的薄板实验根本观察不到薄板前冲刷沟内的沙波运动,而该沙波运动严重影响薄板的导沙效应。底部薄板附近的水流结构具有强烈的三维特性,流场复杂,对于一定的薄板,水流夹角、沙波的运动是影响薄板的导流导沙促淤的主要因素。     

HSST将于日本2005国际博览会投入商业运营

介绍名古屋东部丘陵线的概况和该线所用的磁悬浮运输系统、磁悬浮车辆的技术特点.     

Trading strategies in the market for tankers

This paper introduces a new approach in timing the sale and purchase of ships in the tanker market and examines the performance of this trading strategy over the period January 1976 to September 2004. Based on the long-run cointegration relationship between earnings and price, we establish a trading model which can be used as an indicator of investment or divestment timing decisions. We also perform statistical tests using the bootstrap approach in order to discount the possibility of data snooping biases and test the robustness of our trading models. Our results indicate that trading strategies based on earning-price ratios significantly out-perform buy and hold strategies in the tanker market.     

A system dynamics approach to land use/transportation system performance modeling Part I: Methodology

This paper presents a system dynamics approach to simultaneous land use/transportation system performance modeling. A model is designed based on the causality functions and feedback loop structure between a large number of physical, socioeconomic, and policy variables. The model consists of 7 sub‐models: population, migration of population, household, job growth‐employment‐land availability, housing development, travel demand, and traffic congestion level. The model is formulated in DYNAMO simulation language, and tested on a data set from Montgomery County, MD. In Part I: Methodology, the overall approach and the structure of the model system is discussed and the causal‐loop diagrams and major equations are presented. In Part II: Application, the model is calibrated and tested with data from Montgomery County, MD. Least square method and overall system behavior are used to estimate the model parameters. The model is fitted with the 1970–80 data and validated with the 1980–1990 data. Robustness and sensitivities with respect to input parameters such as birth rate or regional economy growth are analyzed. The model performance as a policy analysis tool is examined by predicting the year by year impacts of highway capacity expansion on land use and transportation system performance. While this is a first attempt in using dynamic system simulation modeling in simultaneous treatment of land use and transportation system interactions, and model development and application are limited due to data availability, the results indicate that the proposed method is a promising approach in dealing with complex urban land use/transportation modeling.     

Effects of Operational and Design Parameters on the Sequence of Locking of the Wheels of Tractor-Semitrailers

It is known that loss of directional stability during braking occurs in many road accidents involving tractor-semitrailers. To minimize the undesired directional response, the correct order of locking of the wheels is of importance and should receive greater attention. This paper examines the effects of operational and design parameters on the sequence of locking of the wheels of tractor-semitrailers. The way in which the correct locking sequence may be achieved is also discussed in detail.     

Computer-Simulation of the Dynamical Curving Behaviour of a Railway-Bogie

This paper describes the modelling of a two axle railway-bogie with variable design configurations and its application in the investigation of the behaviour in transitional and circular curves. Several results indicate possibilities to improve the curving properties and recommend the usage of forced-steering bogies, which show better performance in narrow curves without unbearable sacrifices to high-speed-behaviour on straight track.     

Privatisation and the quality of rail services

Using the concept of generalised costs to reflect quality in rail services, we consider the level of provision and quality of these services in the various forms they may take in a privatised environment within a model where we assume linear and separable demand and cost functions for analytical simplicity. Using the Pareto-efficient output and quality outcomes under a fully integrated system for reference (as well as those for a fully integrated profit-maximising monopolist) we show that if either bilateral monopoly or complementary monopoly emerge as a market structure the output of train services and their quality will generally fall. In the case of the emergence of both bilateral monopoly and complementary monopoly our analysis again suggests poor welfare outcomes. The implication that can be drawn from our analysis is that a regulator of a privatised rail system faces some severe problems if she is to attain the appropriate welfare targets.     

Link choice proportions from trip distribution and assignment models: An overview and comparison

A number of estimation procedures have been suggested for the situation where a prior estimate of an origin-destination matrix is to be updated on the basis of recently-acquired traffic counts. These procedures assume that both the link flows and the proportionate usage of each link made by each origin-destination flow (referred to collectively as the link choice proportions) are known. This paper examines the possibility and methods for estimating the link choice proportions. Three methods are presented: (1) using ad hoc iteration between trip distribution and traffic assignment; (2) combining trip distribution and assignment in one step; (3) solving a new optimization problem in which the path flows are directly considered as variables and its optimal solution is governed by a logit type formula. The algorithms, covergencies and computational efficiencies of these methods are investigated. Results of testing the three methods on example networks are discussed.