Trading strategies in the market for tankers

This paper introduces a new approach in timing the sale and purchase of ships in the tanker market and examines the performance of this trading strategy over the period January 1976 to September 2004. Based on the long-run cointegration relationship between earnings and price, we establish a trading model which can be used as an indicator of investment or divestment timing decisions. We also perform statistical tests using the bootstrap approach in order to discount the possibility of data snooping biases and test the robustness of our trading models. Our results indicate that trading strategies based on earning-price ratios significantly out-perform buy and hold strategies in the tanker market.     

Shipper's councils: role and responsibility—a western view

Traditionally, liner markets have been seen as dominated by conferences on the seller side, facing small, unorganized shippers onn the buyers' side. This perceived asymmetry has greatly influenced conference legislation in North America (and more recently in the E.U.) and it has been deemed essential that government should regulate conference activities in order to curb any abuse of 'conference power'. In this view, shipowners and shippers are adversaries engaged in a zero-sum battle over transport costs rather than potential or actual partners in global distribution systems. This paper suggests that in today's global markets much can be achieved by cooperationn in the development of logistics systems and that shipowners and shippers may have much to gain from such cooperative alliances. A survey of shippers' councils in 1991-1992 demonstrates the diversity and increasing sophistication of many national shippers' councils, which devote themselves to the task of improving markets through education and the legislative process. The situation in the U.S.A. is different: for legal reasons, conventional shippers' councils do not exist. Instead, 'shippers' associations' play a commercial role in liner markets. It is suggested that European style shippers' councils can and should play an important role in the development and formulation of policies for internatinal liner markets. Such participation requires a cooperative industry environment quite different from the traditional adversarial approach, which is ill suited to global trade and logistics alliances.     

The role of the Federal Government in US marine transportation

The United States meets the world shipping crisis of the 1970s with a high-cost merchant fleet and a national maritime policy which needs clearer articulation. This paper examines the objectives, rationale and methods of implementation of the Us maritime programme with attention, finally, to the question of governmental reorganization.     

���߽�ͨ���ź��Ż�����:�ع���ǰհ

概括地回顾了一些关于离线(或脱机)交通信号灯优化设计的方法.其中包括用于在孤立交叉口的单点和区域性的联动控制系统.离线方法在设计时一般利用已有调查出来的交通数据作为固定的输入资料,这个跟实时设计方法所要求的从感应器即时检浏出来的情况作为设计依据是有本质上的区别.但一般沿用的信号配时设计方法都需要依靠已刻在行车线道上(允许通行)的方向指示标志为设计基础,但这个方向指示在确定后在整个优化过程中是维持不变的,这就限制了交通流量在线道上的分布,从而大大减低配时的灵活性,在这样情况下优化出来的结果肯定不会是最好的.直至近期,以行车线道为基本单位的配时设计方法(英文名称为Lane-based method;中文可称为线道法)发展起来.这个方法是由传统的Phase-based method(相位法)所演变出来的.线道法不但包含所有相位法的特点,而且更能为原本受约束的线道和配时设计进行全面优化.线道法可在单点交叉口和区域性的联动控制系统上应用.文末提出一些未来研究发展的新方向.     

One-dimensional model on fuel penetration in diesel sprays with gas flow

In diesel engine, spray penetration is usually changed by in-cylinder gas flow. Accurate prediction on diesel spray with gas flow is important to the optimal design of diesel fuel injection system. This paper presents a theory investigation focusing on the penetration of diesel spray with gas flow. In order to understand the effect of gas flow on the penetration of diesel spray, a one-dimensional spray model is developed from an idealized diesel spray, which is able to predict the spray behavior under different gas flow conditions. The ambient gas flow is simplified as ideal flow that has only constant flow velocity along x-axial and y-axial directions of spray. The x-axial and y-axial directions are respectively defined as along and vertical spray directions. The main assumption is that the y-axial direction gas flow has no effect on the penetration of spray along x-axial direction. The principles of conservation of mass and momentum are used in the derivation. Momentum of in-cylinder air flow is also taken into consideration. Validation of the model at stable condition is achieved by comparing model predictions with experimental measurements of diesel spray without gas flow from Naber's experiments. Furthermore, CFD simulations on penetration of diesel spray with gas flow were performed with the commercial code AVL-fire. The onedimensional model is validated by the penetration results with gas flow from CFD calculation. Results show that a reasonable estimation of the spray evolution can be obtained for both with and without ambient gas flow conditions.     

Aerodynamic design optimization of rear body shapes of a sedan for drag reduction

This study proposes an aerodynamically optimized outer shape of a sedan by using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), which focused on modifying the rear body shapes of the sedan. To determine the optimization variables, the unsteady flow field around the sedan driving at very fast speeds was analyzed by CFD simulation, and fluctuations of the drag coefficient (C _D ) and pressure around the car were calculated. After consideration of the baseline result of CFD, 6 local parts from the end of the sedan were chosen as the design variables for optimization. Moreover, an ANN approximation model was established with 64 experimental points generated by the D-optimal methodology. As a result, an aerodynamically optimized shape for the rear end of the sedan in which the aerodynamic performance is improved by about 5.64% when compared to the baseline vehicle is proposed. Finally, it is expected that within the accepted range of shape modifications for a rear body, the aerodynamic performance of a sedan can be enhanced so that the fuel efficiency of the sedan can be improved. The YF SONATA, a sedan manufactured by Hyundai Motors Corporate, played a major role in this research as the baseline vehicle.     

Analysis of a regenerative braking system for Hybrid Electric Vehicles using an Electro-Mechanical Brake

The regenerative braking system of the Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) is a key technology that can improve fuel efficiency by 20∼50%, depending on motor size. In the regenerative braking system, the electronically controlled brake subsystem that directs the braking forces into four wheels independently is indispensable. This technology is currently found in the Electronic Stability Program (ESP) and in Vehicle Dynamic Control (VDC). As braking technologies progress toward brake-by-wire systems, the development of Electro-Mechanical Brake (EMB) systems will be very important in the improvement of both fuel consumption and vehicle safety. This paper investigates the modeling and simulation of EMB systems for HEVs. The HEV powertrain was modeled to include the internal combustion engine, electric motor, battery and transmission. The performance simulation for the regenerative braking system of the HEV was performed using MATLAB/Simulink. The control performance of the EMB system was evaluated via the simulation of the regenerative braking of the HEV during various driving conditions.     

卵砾石层管推进工程超挖及卡钻对管材与土壤互制行为的影响研究

非明挖工法在都市施作时,常因困难地质(如卵砾石层)或障碍物而造成施工困难、工期延误或发生灾损。本文主要针对非明挖施工法里的管推进施工法(Pipe-jacking Method),探讨管推进工法施工时可能遭遇的困难,以及施工困难状况下之管材土体互制行为。探讨的施工困难包括超挖、挤压、卡钻等问题。本研究针对超挖范围、卡钻位置、阻力大小以及推进力施加位置等,以ABAQUS有限元素软件进行三维数值仿真,探讨直线推进施工中的问题。