Trading strategies in the market for tankers

This paper introduces a new approach in timing the sale and purchase of ships in the tanker market and examines the performance of this trading strategy over the period January 1976 to September 2004. Based on the long-run cointegration relationship between earnings and price, we establish a trading model which can be used as an indicator of investment or divestment timing decisions. We also perform statistical tests using the bootstrap approach in order to discount the possibility of data snooping biases and test the robustness of our trading models. Our results indicate that trading strategies based on earning-price ratios significantly out-perform buy and hold strategies in the tanker market.     

Privatisation and the quality of rail services

Using the concept of generalised costs to reflect quality in rail services, we consider the level of provision and quality of these services in the various forms they may take in a privatised environment within a model where we assume linear and separable demand and cost functions for analytical simplicity. Using the Pareto-efficient output and quality outcomes under a fully integrated system for reference (as well as those for a fully integrated profit-maximising monopolist) we show that if either bilateral monopoly or complementary monopoly emerge as a market structure the output of train services and their quality will generally fall. In the case of the emergence of both bilateral monopoly and complementary monopoly our analysis again suggests poor welfare outcomes. The implication that can be drawn from our analysis is that a regulator of a privatised rail system faces some severe problems if she is to attain the appropriate welfare targets.     

Link choice proportions from trip distribution and assignment models: An overview and comparison

A number of estimation procedures have been suggested for the situation where a prior estimate of an origin-destination matrix is to be updated on the basis of recently-acquired traffic counts. These procedures assume that both the link flows and the proportionate usage of each link made by each origin-destination flow (referred to collectively as the link choice proportions) are known. This paper examines the possibility and methods for estimating the link choice proportions. Three methods are presented: (1) using ad hoc iteration between trip distribution and traffic assignment; (2) combining trip distribution and assignment in one step; (3) solving a new optimization problem in which the path flows are directly considered as variables and its optimal solution is governed by a logit type formula. The algorithms, covergencies and computational efficiencies of these methods are investigated. Results of testing the three methods on example networks are discussed.     

A Study of the Response of a Double Bottom Vehicle to Steering and Braking

The paper describes the development, operation and some of the results obtained from a simulation of the steering behaviour of the double bottom articulated vehicle, in particular the effects that arise when certain axles are locked.     

A utility-theory analysis of automobile speed under uncertainty of enforcement

Highway automobile speed and uncertain enforcement of the speed limit are introduced into a standard household utility model having time and income constraints. Due to uncertainty, expected utility is maximized to obtain the optimal speed (in excess of the speed limit). The optimal amounts of all other commodities and travel are also obtained. The key feature of the model is the risk attitude of the driver and the effect on optimal speed of such attitude. A related feature is the effect of risk attitude on the amount of speed self-insurance. An important finding is that the risk avert (seeking, neutral) driver charges himself an insurance premium that is larger than (smaller than, equal to) what is actuarially sufficient. The relationship between speed, risk attitude, and efficient cost of automobile travel is developed and implications are explored. A parametric analysis is conducted to establish the effect on optimal speed (and other variables) of changes in such policy instruments as the price of gasoline, the probability of being caught exceeding the speed limit, the unit speed fine, and the speed limit. Policy implications of the theoretical results are part of the conclusions.     

Automobile Directional Characteristics and Driver Steering Performance

Driver steering performance in a simple circular lane-keeping task, as dependent on the directional response characteristics of the vehicle, was measured. Response Surface Methodology models of steering performance are presented. Several canonical variables describe the drivers responses to vehicle changes. Clear-cut optimum vehicle characteristics cannot be determined, but certain combinations of vehicle characteristics are seen to be undesirable for various reasons related to theoretical mechanisms of driver steering control.     

Shipper's councils: role and responsibility—a western view

Traditionally, liner markets have been seen as dominated by conferences on the seller side, facing small, unorganized shippers onn the buyers' side. This perceived asymmetry has greatly influenced conference legislation in North America (and more recently in the E.U.) and it has been deemed essential that government should regulate conference activities in order to curb any abuse of 'conference power'. In this view, shipowners and shippers are adversaries engaged in a zero-sum battle over transport costs rather than potential or actual partners in global distribution systems. This paper suggests that in today's global markets much can be achieved by cooperationn in the development of logistics systems and that shipowners and shippers may have much to gain from such cooperative alliances. A survey of shippers' councils in 1991-1992 demonstrates the diversity and increasing sophistication of many national shippers' councils, which devote themselves to the task of improving markets through education and the legislative process. The situation in the U.S.A. is different: for legal reasons, conventional shippers' councils do not exist. Instead, 'shippers' associations' play a commercial role in liner markets. It is suggested that European style shippers' councils can and should play an important role in the development and formulation of policies for internatinal liner markets. Such participation requires a cooperative industry environment quite different from the traditional adversarial approach, which is ill suited to global trade and logistics alliances.     

再生性原料在汽车上的应用

本文以联邦德国农业及经济状况为出发点，介绍了利用生物制品，主要是粮食，油料等农产品转化为发动机燃料的研究工作情况，并重点介绍了用菜籽油和酒精的试验研究情况。