Role of transport in rural development in Africa

Rural Africa is starved of transport services. The transport routes run towards the export enclaves and the coast.

The political, social and developmental rural transport benefits are discussed. Rural transport will help (i) integrate the country and ease its governance; (ii) widen markets; (iii) induce increased agricultural output, through new technologies, reduced transport costs, etc. The transport cost savings should be passed on to rural firms and producers. The paper warns against their accruing only to middlemen — agricultural parastatals inclusive, thereby stifling the benefits to production. This could happen under some forms of pan‐territorial pricing. Negative aspects of road development, e.g. the substitution of local goods by imports, increased migration and noise, are noted.

The place and role of project appraisal in rural road planning is acknowledged. The broad‐based development packages approach associated with Integrated Rural Development Projects has, despite its attractions, some pitfalls. It favours well established villages and ignores distribution benefits within villages.

Project appraisal can be used to justify socially uneconomic transport developments. However, rural road investment projects with immediate negative returns are unlikely to be funded. Given clear priorities, short of elaborate cost/benefit analysis, obvious road investments choices can be made by the local community. Greater public accountability of transport planners and peoples’ participation in determining rural transport needs and priorities is emphasized. Increased rural road maintenance especially through self‐help schemes and increased use of traditional modes of transport, e.g. walking, animal and water transport, is recommended.     

Integrated land use — transport models

This paper is a review of computer models of the interrelationships between land use and transport, particularly of the long‐term effects of changes in transport costs on cities and the consequent effects on travel demand. The nature of this relationship is examined in terms of empirical evidence, and a set of criteria against which the models can be evaluated is defined. Four major types of model are examined: regression, mathematical programming, aggregate spatial interaction and individual choice. Each type is considered in terms of operational examples and the strengths and weaknesses of each approach are identified. However, it is recognized that few of the models are capable of representing the major social and technological changes that are currently influencing urban development, and that this is where emphasis should be put if this type of model is to be useful for policy‐making in the future.     

Economic and service comparison of conventional bus and automated transit—a case study

Three origin‐destination matrices of inter‐zonal person trips for a section of the Los Angeles metropolitan region are analyzed using principal component analysis. The matrices represent total person trips, journey‐to‐work trips, and shopping trips. This allows for the identification of a number of sub‐regional travel fields or functional regions within the area. The composition of and interrelationships between these fields and the spatial coincidence of fields defined for different travel purposes are compared with existing and proposed public transit facilities.     

Inland boundary determinations for coastal management purposes—an ecological systems approach to requirements of the federal coastal zone management Act of 1972

Abstract

An analysis of ecological systems that both sustain and are sustained by coastal waters provides the key to a biophysical procedure for delineating inland coastal management boundaries. This analysis entails two basic tasks: (1) mapping the ecosystems that compose coastal waters and adjacent areas, and (2) charting sustaining flows among these systems. The resulting boundary encompasses all environments of coastal waters (subaqueous areas containing a measurable quantity of seawater) and all shore‐lands (either emergent or submergent environments that interchange sustaining materials, energy, or biota with coastal waters). As this biophysical procedure depends on the precise location of, and functional transfers among, coastal ecosystems, it provides a means both for assessing the consequences of human actions and for establishing a landward boundary for a management program. Alternative boundaries not based on locations and operations of coastal ecosystems would probably be either arbitrary or of undue extent, nor would such “alternative”; boundaries be an integral part of an ongoing management process.     

Linking mercury exposure to habitat and feeding behaviour in Beaufort Sea beluga whales

Mercury (Hg) levels in the Beaufort Sea beluga population have been increasing since the 1990's. Ultimately, it is the Hg content of prey that determines beluga Hg levels. However, the Beaufort Sea beluga diet is not understood, and little is known about the diet Hg sources in their summer habitat. During the summer, they segregate into social groups based on habitat use leading to the hypothesis that they may feed in different food webs explaining Hg dietary sources. Methyl mercury (MeHg) and total mercury (THg) levels were measured in the estuarine-shelf, Amundsen Gulf and epibenthic food webs in the western Canadian Arctic collected during the Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study (CASES) to assess their dietary Hg contribution. To our knowledge, this is the first study to report MeHg levels in estuarine fish and epibenthic invertebrates from the Arctic Ocean. Although the Mackenzie River is a large source of Hg, the estuarine-shelf prey items had the lowest MeHg levels, ranging from 0.1 to 0.27 μg/g dry weight (dw) in arctic cisco (Coregonus autumnalis) and saffron cod (Eleginus gracilis) respectively. Highest MeHg levels occurred in fourhorn sculpin (Myoxocephalus quadricornis) (0.5 μg/g dw) from the epibenthic food web. Beluga hypothesized to feed in the epibenthic and Amundsen Gulf food webs had the highest Hg levels matching with high Hg levels in associated food webs, and estuarine-shelf belugas had the lowest Hg levels (2.6 μg/g dw), corresponding with the low food web Hg levels, supporting the variation in dietary Hg uptake. The trophic level transfer of Hg was similar among the food webs, highlighting the importance of Hg sources at the bottom of the food web as well as food web length. We propose that future biomagnification studies incorporate predator behaviour with food web structure to assist in the evaluation of dietary Hg sources.     

Link-level vulnerability indicators for real-world networks

It is computationally expensive to find out where vulnerable parts in a network are. In literature a variety of methods were introduced that use simple indicators (measured in real-life or calculated in a traffic simulator) to pre-determine the seriousness of the delays caused by the blocking of that link and thereafter perform a more detailed analysis. This article reviews the indicators proposed in the literature and assesses the quality of these indicators. Furthermore, a multi-linear fit of the indicators is made to find a better, combined, indicator to rank the links according to their vulnerability. The article shows that different indicators assess different links to be vulnerable. Also combined they cannot predict the vulnerability of a link. Therefore, it is concluded that to find vulnerable links, one has to look further than link-based indicators.     

Weaving marine food webs from end to end under global change

Marine food web dynamics are determined by interactions within and between species and between species and their environment. Global change directly affects abiotic conditions and living organisms, impinging on all trophic levels in food webs. Different groups of marine researchers traditionally study different aspects of these changes. However, over medium to long time scales perturbations affecting food webs need to be considered across the full range from nutrients to top predators. Studies of end-to-end marine food webs not only span organism sizes and trophic levels, but should also help align multidisciplinary research to common goals and perspectives. Topics are described that bridge disciplinary gaps and are needed to develop new understanding of the reciprocal impacts of global change on marine food webs and ocean biogeochemistry. These include (1) the effects of nutrients on biomass and production, (2) the effects of varying element ratios on food web structure and food quality, (3) bulk flows of energy and material in food webs and their efficiencies of transfer, (4) the ecological effects of species richness and the roles of microbial organisms, (5) the role of feeding behaviour in food web dynamics and trophic controls, (6) the spatial dynamics of communities and links between different food webs, (7) the combined effects of body size and behaviour in determining dynamics of food webs, and (8) the extent to which the ability of marine organisms (and communities) to adapt will influence food web dynamics. An overriding issue that influences all topics concerns the time and space scales of ecosystem variability. Threads link different nodes of information among various topics, emphasizing the importance of tackling food web studies with a variety of modelling approaches and through a combination of field and experimental studies with a strong comparative approach.     

Electric vehicles: How much range is required for a day’s driving?

One full year of high-resolution driving data from 484 instrumented gasoline vehicles in the US is used to analyze daily driving patterns, and from those infer the range requirements of electric vehicles (EVs). We conservatively assume that EV drivers would not change their current gasoline-fueled driving patterns and that they would charge only once daily, typically at home overnight. Next, the market is segmented into those drivers for whom a limited-range vehicle would meet every day’s range need, and those who could meet their daily range need only if they make adaptations on some days. Adaptations, for example, could mean they have to either recharge during the day, borrow a liquid-fueled vehicle, or save some errands for the subsequent day. From this analysis, with the stated assumptions, we infer the potential market share for limited-range vehicles. For example, we find that 9% of the vehicles in the sample never exceeded 100 miles in one day, and 21% never exceeded 150 miles in one day. These drivers presumably could substitute a limited-range vehicle, like electric vehicles now on the market, for their current gasoline vehicle without any adaptation in their driving at all. For drivers who are willing to make adaptations on 2 days a year, the same 100 mile range EV would meet the needs of 17% of drivers, and if they are willing to adapt every other month (six times a year), it would work for 32% of drivers. Thus, it appears that even modest electric vehicles with today’s limited battery range, if marketed correctly to segments with appropriate driving behavior, comprise a large enough market for substantial vehicle sales. An additional analysis examines driving versus parking by time of day. On the average weekday at 5 pm, only 15% of the vehicles in the sample are on the road; at no time during the year are fewer than 75% of vehicles parked. Also, because the return trip home is widely spread in time, even if all cars plug in and begin charging immediately when they arrive home and park, the increased demand on the electric system is less problematic than prior analyses have suggested.     

Identifying critical road segments and measuring system-wide robustness in transportation networks with isolating links: A link-based capacity-reduction approach

A wide range of relatively short-term disruptive events such as partial flooding, visibility reductions, traction hazards due to weather, and pavement deterioration occur on transportation networks on a daily basis. Despite being relatively minor when compared to catastrophes, these events still have profound impacts on traffic flow. To date there has been very little distinction drawn between different types of network-disruption studies and how the methodological approaches used in those studies differ depending on the specific research objectives and on the disruption scenarios being modeled.In this paper, we advance a methodological approach that employs different link-based capacity-disruption values for identifying and ranking the most critical links and quantifying network robustness in a transportation network. We demonstrate how an ideal capacity-disruption range can be objectively determined for a particular network and introduce a scalable system-wide performance measure, called the Network Trip Robustness (NTR) that can be used to directly compare networks of different sizes, topologies, and connectivity levels.Our approach yields results that are independent of the degree of connectivity and can be used to evaluate robustness on networks with isolating links. We show that system-wide travel-times and the rank-ordering of the most critical links in a network can vary dramatically based on both the capacity-disruption level and on the overall connectivity of the network. We further show that the relationships between network robustness, the capacity-disruption level used for modeling, and network connectivity are non-linear and not necessarily intuitive. We discuss our findings with respect to Braess’ Paradox.     

Rapid transit system simulation with interactive graphics display

A mathematical model of a rapid transit system has been developed. The model employs computer techniques to simulate the physical system. To further enhance the results and gain management confidence in the reliability and validity of the design of the model, a TV‐like display of the computer results enables the viewer to “see” the performance of the model as it happens. The results displayed thus include: The track layout, time (simulation), train position on the track, and the number of passengers riding on each train and waiting at each platform or station. The computer printout of results is limited to summary type data, relying on the display for detailed evaluation and analysis.