Container shipping in 1990

By 1990 express shuttle container ships will dominate the USA/North European and USA/Pacific trades. The pattern is already apparent in the Pacific. These will touch only a few ports such as Halifax, New York and Virginia on the Atlantic and Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland and Seattle/Tacoma in the West. Their low costs and good services will capture over 80% of available general cargo. Round the world systems will be left with lucrative fringe business in the Mediterranean, US Gulf/South Atlantic, Singapore, India and Arab countries.

Progress will be sensitive to twelve trends. Most important of these will be labour resistance and management concerns about rapid obsolescence of ships and terminals. Rail and ship costs have been rationalized and are not as flexible as terminal costs. The ultimate terminal will consume about one third of the time and money presently needed.

This paper is chiefly intended to suggest a forecasting methodology.     

Forecasting telecommuting

Transportation planners increasingly recognize telecommuting as an important trend. But while they often advocate telecommuting as a transportation demand management strategy, transportation planners have made little progress toward incorporating telecommuting into transportation forecasts, at least partly because of the limited data available. In this paper we explore four alternative methodologies for forecasting telecommuting and discuss the kinds of data that must be collected before these methodologies can be applied. The first approach is trend extrapolation, using curves of technological substitution. Sufficient data are currently available to produce forecasts, albeit highly uncertain forecasts, using this approach. However, even with better data this approach does not address underlying factors and trends that will affect the future of telecommuting. As a result, we explore three additional approaches that should produce more reliable forecasts but which require new data and knowledge about telecommuting: analyzing the characteristics of telecommuters in contrast to nontelecommuters, analyzing factors affecting the individual choice to telecommute, and incorporating telecommuting into traditional transportation forecasting models.     

Use of duration models for predicting vehicular delay at a US/Canadian border crossing

Delays caused by congestion at the US/Canadian border crossing between Washington state and British Columbia have underscored the need for some sort of intervention. One obvious congestion-mitigation measure would be to estimate delay times and then relay this information to motorists so that they could select among alternative border crossing sites, or delay their trips. This paper applies duration models to estimate vehicular delay and demonstrates the usefulness of such models as a basis for a fully automated motorist information system. The paper also explores the flexibility of duration models, in providing estimates of vehicle delay, by using alternate parametric forms and assessing prediction accuracy.     

New security measures for the international shipping community

On 1 July 2004 the new maritime security regulatory regime set out in the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS), 1974 as amended, namely the new chapter XI-2 on Special measures to enhance maritime security and the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code entered into force only 18 months after adoption by the SOLAS Conference in December 2002. Following the devastating terrorist acts of 11 September 2001 in the United States, the international community recognised the need to protect the international maritime transport sector against the threat of terrorism. IMO responded swiftly and firmly by developing these new requirements, which represent the culmination of co-operation between Governments, Government agencies, local administrations and shipping and port industries.     

Crystallographic structure of sea ice along a salinity gradient and environmental control of microalgae in the brine cells

Duplicate ice cores were taken in southeastern Hudson Bay (Canadian Arctic), at 8 stations along a transect, from the mouth of the Great Whale River to saline waters 25 km offshore. One core from each station was cut into 10-cm sections, which were melted at room temperature for determinations of salinity, nutrients, algal pigments and taxonomic composition of the microalgal assemblages. On the second core, thin sections were cut every 2 cm to optically determine the ratio of brine/gas pockets to the total sections. Relative volumes of brine in melted samples were computed from the observed ratios and calculated values, and used to convert per unit brine volume the concentrations of pigments, nutrients and algal cells, initially measured per unit volume of melted sample.Salinity of the melted samples indicate the presence of freshwater beneath the sea ice close to shore throughout the growth season, and the vertical salinity profiles suggest intermittent intrusions of freshwater. Nutrient concentrations in the brine were high, suggesting that microalgae in the brine cells were generally not nutrient limited. Concentrations of ice algae in the brine cells reached relatively high values, that are often of the same order as those reported for eutrophic marine waters. Statistical analyses identified the rate of ice growth as the most important factor controlling the vertical and horizontal distributions of algal biomass and taxonomic composition in the sea ice, along the salinity gradient. Higher biomasses were generally associated with slower ice growth and also possibly lower grazing activity. In addition, the rate of ice growth influenced the distribution of microalgal assemblages, with nitrogen limitation potentially playing a secondary role in some instances.     

Theoretical Analysis of the Steering Behaviour of Articulated Frame Steer Vehicles

A theoretical analysis of the steering behaviour of articulated frame steer vehicles is presented. It includes details of the hydraulic steering system as well as the equations governing motion of the front and rear body units. Both oscillatory and exponential instabilities can occur with this type of vehicle. The most sensitive design feature is the steering system, which governs the effective torsional stiffness around the pivot. Other important features which influence stability are speed and centre of gravity positions of the bodies.     

The Chatter of Semi-Active On-Off Suspensions and its Cure

Semi-active suspensions are those in which otherwise passively generated damper forces are modulated using feedback control and small amounts of control effort. Recently it was discovered that two-stage, ON-OFF, semi-active control would chatter between the ON and OFF states in a manner similar to bang-bang, active control systems. This chatter is dependent upon the switching algorithm. This paper describes the dynamics of this chatter and suggests alternative control policies for its cure.     

Modelling route choice behaviour in multi-modal transport networks

The paper presents new findings on the influence of multi-modal trip attributes on the quality and competitiveness of inter-urban multi-modal train alternatives. The analysis covers the entire trip from origin to destination, including access and egress legs to and from the train network. The focus is on preferences for different feeder modes, railway station types and train service types as well as on the relative influence of time elements and transfer penalties. Data from dedicated surveys are used including individual objective choice sets of 235 multi-modal homebound trips in which train is the main transport mode. The observed trips have origins and destinations within the Rotterdam–Dordrecht region in The Netherlands with an average total trip time of 50 minutes. Hierarchical Nested Logit models are estimated to take account of unobserved similarities between alternatives at the home-end and the activity-end of the trip respectively, resulting in two-level nesting structures which differentiate between intercity (IC) and non-intercity railway station types at the upper level and between transit and private access modes at the lower level. In order to reflect the multi-dimensional structure of the data a more advanced so-called Multi-Nested GEV model according to the Principles of Differentiation has been estimated which significantly improves the explanatory power and stresses the importance of the home-end of the multi-modal trip.     

Contents Volume 32 2005

Contents Volume

Contents Volume 32 2005     

Rural mobility and mode choice: Evidence from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey

This article uses data from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) to compare travel behavior in rural and urban areas of the U.S. As expected, the car is the overwhelmingly dominant mode of travel. Over 97% of rural households own at least one car vs. 92% of urban households; 91% of trips are made by car in rural areas vs. 86% in urban areas. Regardless of age, income, and race, almost everyone in rural areas relies on the private car for most travel needs. Mobility levels in rural areas are generally higher than in urban areas. That results from the more dispersed residences and activity sites in rural areas, which increase trip distances and force reliance on the car. Somewhat surprisingly, the rural elderly and poor are considerably more mobile than their urban counterparts, and their mobility deficit compared to the rural population average is strikingly less than for the urban elderly and poor compared to the urban average. Data limitations prevented a measurement of accessibility, however, and it seems likely that rural areas, by their very nature, are less accessible than urban areas, especially for the small percentage of car-less poor and elderly households.