Some insights in novel risk modeling of liquefied natural gas carrier maintenance operations

This study discusses the analysis of various modeling approaches and maintenance techniques applicable to the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carrier operations in the maritime environment. Various novel modeling techniques are discussed; including genetic algorithms, fuzzy logic and evidential reasoning. We also identify the usefulness of these algorithms in the LNG carrier industry in the areas of risk assessment and maintenance modeling.     

Enabling a viable technique for the optimization of LNG carrier cargo operations

In this study, we optimize the loading and discharging operations of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carrier. First, we identify the required precautions for LNG carrier cargo operations. Next, we prioritize these precautions using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and experts’ judgments, in order to optimize the operational loading and discharging exercises of the LNG carrier, prevent system failure and human error, and reduce the risk of marine accidents. Thus, the objective of our study is to increase the level of safety during cargo operations.     

The Teachable Moments on Marine Mammal Tours: Watching versus Swim-With Tours

With the continuing growth of the tourism industry over recent decades, has come a change in tourist behavior from the traditional stereotypical 3-S tourist (sun, sand, sex) to an increasingly sophisticated and demanding tourist. These “new” tourists like to learn about history, nature, and wildlife, and they expect an educational component on wildlife tours. This study investigated swim-with-dolphin tours in Kaikoura, New Zealand with regard to the educational content and the overall anatomy of these tours, using data from observations on a total of 32 tours during December 2011. The resulting data were then compared with the data from Hrycik and Forestell's study, which investigated the content of questions asked by passengers on whale-watching tours in Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary. Results of the on-tour observations indicate that the surveyed tours display a structured approach to interpretation, which is customized to the specific tour anatomy of a “swim-with” tour, and varies in some parts significantly from “watch-only” tour interpretation.     

Visualisation of uncertainty in probabilistic traffic models for policy and operations

This study investigates different methods to visualise uncertainty in static representations of probabilistic traffic models predictions on road-networks. Although various graphical cues may be used to represent uncertainty it is not a priori clear which of them are most suited for this purpose, since their legibility, intelligibility and the degree to which they interfere with other graphical elements in a representation differ widely. Several graphical uncertainty representations were therefore developed and analysed in expert sessions. A selection of the initial set of uncertainty visualisations was further evaluated in a cognitive alternative task-switching experiment. The results show that graphical representations are able to convey uncertainty information relatively accurately, while some uncertainty visualisations outperform others. It depends on the model and scenario which representation is most suited for a given application. This paper presents an overview of possible graphic uncertainty representations and the considerations involved when applying them to uncertainty in traffic model visualisations.     

Impacts of urban built environment on empty taxi trips using limited geolocation data

This study identifies the determinants of the empty taxi trip duration (ETTD) by combining three high-resolution databases—geolocation data in New York City, geodatabase of urban planning data, and transportation facilities data. Considering the nature of duration data, hazard-based duration model is proposed to explore the relationships between causal factors and ETTD, coupling with three variations of baseline hazard distribution, i.e., Weibull distribution with heterogeneity, Weibull distribution, and log-logistic. Furthermore, the likelihood ratio test is presented to implement comparisons of three baseline hazard distributions, as well as spatial and temporal transferability of causal factors. The results show significant complementary effects by subway system and competitive effects by city bus and bicycling system, as well as significant impacts of trip length, airport trip, average annual income, and employment rate. Urban built environment, for instance, density of road, public facilities, and recreational sites and ratio of green space, has various impacts on ETTD. The elasticity estimations confirm significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in impacts on ETTD. In addition, the analysis on elasticity also reveals the considerable impacts of severe traffic congestion on ETTD within Manhattan. The modeling can assist stakeholders in understanding empty taxi movements and measuring taxi system efficiency in urban areas.     

Reliability Modeling and Maintenance Policy Optimization for Deteriorating System Under Random Shock

Performance degradation and random shock are commonly regarded as two dependent competing risks for system failures. One method based on effective service age is proposed to jointly model the cumulative effect of random shock and system degradation, and the reliability model of degradation system under Nonhomogeneous Poisson processes (NHPP) shocks is derived. Under the assumption that preventive maintenance (PM) is imperfective and the corrective maintenance (CM) is minimal repair, one maintenance policy which combines PM and CM is presented. Moreover, the two decision variables, PM interval and the number of PMs before replacement, are determined by a multi-objective maintenance optimization method which simultaneously maximizes the system availability and minimizes the system long-run expect cost rate. Finally, the performance of the proposed maintenance optimization policy is demonstrated via a numerical example.     

Effect of nozzle orifice diameter on diesel spray tip penetration according to various spray models for CFD simulation with widely varying back pressure

CFD simulations of spray tip penetration with the standard KIVA3V, ‘original gas jet’ and ‘Normal gas jet profile with breakup length formula’ (NGJBL) spray models were performed to investigate the effects of nozzle orifice size and ambient gas density combinations on the spray penetration. The accuracy of the CFD simulation results was estimated by comparing them with available experimental data. The ambient gas density was varied in 12 kg/m³ intervals from 12 to 69 kg/m³ for each nozzle orifice diameter. The nozzle orifice diameters used were 119, 140, 183 and 206 mm. A total of 20 cases in the CFD simulations were considered with combinations of the 4 nozzle orifice diameters and 5 ambient gas densities. CFD simulations with the NGJBL spray model were more accurate than those with either the standard KIVA3V or gas jet spray models as the nozzle orifice diameter and ambient gas density was increased. The NGJBL and original gas jet model is more effective in predicting the spray tip penetration near the nozzle tip region.     

Vibration reduction of H/Shaft using an electromagnetic damper with mode change

The objective of this study is to develop a damper that can reduce the amplitude of vibration in various frequency ranges. Previous H/Shaft vibration reduction methods work in a passive way. A dynamic damper reduces the amplitude of vibration at its first mode, but vibration still appears at the second mode. A mass damper or hollow shaft can shift the natural frequency to a lower or higher region. The fixed operating frequency prevents vibration from being reduced outside the operating frequency range. The proposed damper uses electromagnets as either masses or actuators to change the damper mode between dynamic damper mode and mass damper mode. The electromagnetic damper (EMD) can change its mode to respond to the vibration excitation at both low and high frequencies. The vibration reduction performance was evaluated by FRF tests in laboratory and vehicle conditions. The results were compared with those of a dynamic damper and indicate that the amplitude of vibration is reduced by 95.6 % when the EMD is implemented on an H/Shaft, whereas only 61.9 % vibration reduction is achieved by the dynamic damper.     

浅谈工程设计对公路建设投资的影响和相应对策

通过工程设计对公路建设投资影响的分析,阐明了工程设计是影响建设投资的主要因素之一,并通过实例证明了合理选择设计方案和采用技术标准等办法是控制投资的一条有效途径,而合理选择设计方案和技术标准又受到各种因素的影响和限制,对影响合理选择设计方案的原因进行了具体分析,并就此提出了几点相应对策,供同行们参考.     

彩色多普勒超声在动态监测移植肝及其并发症中的应用

目的探讨彩色多普勒超声在动态监测肝移植术后血流动力学变化及并发症诊治中的应用价值。方法回顾我中心107例原位肝移植术后应用彩色多普勒超声资料,汇总后行统计学分析。结果肝移植术后早期门脉流速较正常对照组升高,而肝动脉流速降低,后逐渐恢复正常。107例中发现肝动脉血栓形成2例(1.87%),肝动脉狭窄5例(4.67%),门脉血栓形成3例(2.80%),肿瘤复发7例(6.54%),诊断为急性排斥反应18例次(16.82%),慢性排斥反应10例次(9.34%),胸腔积液105例(98.13%),腹腔积液65例(60.74%),假性动脉瘤1例,胰漏1例,胆道感染4例(3.74%),胆道狭窄4例(3.74%),胆漏5例(4.67%),胆总管结石1例。结论彩色多普勒超声在动态监测肝移植术后血流动力学变化及并发症诊治中具有重要的临床意义。