Uncertainty analysis of value for money assessment for public-private partnership projects

In recent years, private sectors are encouraged to take an active part in franchising of urban infrastructure investments and operations, which promotes the rapid development of public-private partnership (PPP) in infrastructure and public service supply. Value for money (VFM) assessment has been officially proposed to provide a reference for selection of projects planning to adopt PPP. Based on the bottlenecks of VFM application in China and the uncertainties for urban infrastructure PPP projects, a discounted cash flow (DCF) model is established for VFM of infrastructure PPP projects. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation model is established on the basis of uncertainty factors for VFM. Through the analysis of Huai’an trams PPP project, coping strategies of uncertainties for VFM are put forward. Findings of the research may propel the establishment of a complete VFM evaluation system for PPP projects. Key instructional functions of VFM during the process of decision-making can be brought into full play and PPP may develop orderly.     

Fault diagnosis for wind turbine based on improved extreme learning machine

A fault diagnosis method based on improved extreme learning machine (IELM) is proposed to solve the weakness (weak generalization ability, low diagnostic rate) of traditional fault diagnosis with feedforward neural network algorithm. This method fuses signal feature vectors, extracts six parameters as the principal component analysis (PCA) variables, and calculates correlation coefficient matrix among the variables. The weight values of control parameters in the extreme learning model are dynamically adjusted according to the test samples’ constantly changing. Consequently, the weight fixed drawback in the original model can be remedied. A fault simulation experiment platform for wind turbine drive system is built, eight kinds of fault modes are diagnosed by the improved extreme learning model, and the result is compared with that of other machine learning methods. The experiment indicates that the method can enhance the accuracy and generalization ability of diagnosis, and increase the computing speed. It is convenient for engineering application.     

Gain and noise figure analysis of Er<Superscript>3+</Superscript>-doped YAG transparent ceramic microchip amplifier

The rate equations and the power evolution equations based on excited state absorption (ESA) and cooperative upconversion (CUC) of high concentration erbium-doped yttrium aluminum garnet (YAG) transparent ceramic waveguide amplifier are set up to analyze the effects of the pump power, active ion concentration and waveguide length on the amplifier gain and noise figure (NF). The numerical analysis predicts that with a pump power of 100mW, an active ion concentration of 1.0×10²⁶ ion/m³ and a waveguide length of 3 cm, a small-signal gain of 30 dB and an NF of 5 dB can be achieved in the micro-chip amplifier.     

Dynamics of inorganic nutrient species in the Bohai seawaters

Within the frame of a Sino-German Joint Research Program, two cruises of “R/V Dong Fang Hong 2” were carried out in September–October 1998 and April–May 1999, respectively, to understand the dynamics of nutrients in the Bohai. Nutrient species (NO₃⁻, NO₂⁻, NH₄⁺, PO₄³⁻ and SiO₃²⁻) are determined colorimetrically on board for five anchor and 30 grid stations. In situ incubation experiments are performed to determine planktonic nutrient uptake and benthic exchange flux. Nutrient concentrations display short-term variability and seasonal change in the Bohai, with higher levels in shallow coastal waters than in the Central Bohai. The influence of riverine discharge on nutrient levels can be seen from salinity isopleths, nutrient distribution and species ratios. Near-bottom (nb) waters have similar nutrient concentrations as to the surface waters in the Central Bohai, whereas stratification takes place in the Bohai Strait and North Yellow Sea. In situ incubation experiments provide evidence that the uptake ratio (i.e. N, P) by phytoplankton is proportional to the ratios among nutrient species in ambient waters. Based on the data of this study and previously publications, a preliminary estimate of nutrient budgets via riverine input and atmospheric deposition is established. The results indicate that atmospheric deposition gains importance over rivers in delivering nutrients into the Bohai and sustain the new production, following recent decrease in riverine inflow caused by drought periods in North China and damming practices. A historical review of nutrient data indicates that concentrations of nitrogen increase and phosphorus and silica decrease in the Central Bohai over last 40 years. This potentially has an important influence on the health of ecosystem in Bohai (e.g. food web and community structure), though further study is needed to examine the scenario in more detail.     

Research on probability distribution of port cargo throughput

In order to more accurately examine developing trends in gross cargo throughput, we have modeled the probability distribution of cargo throughput. Gross cargo throughput is determined by the time spent by cargo ships in the port and the operating efficiency of handling equipment. Gross cargo throughput is the sum of all compound variables determining each aspect of cargo throughput for every cargo ship arriving at the port. Probability distribution was determined using the Wald equation. The results show that the variability of gross cargo throughput primarily depends on the different times required by different cargo ships arriving at the port. This model overcomes the shortcoming of previous models： inability to accurately determine the probability of a specific value of future gross cargo throughput. Our proposed model of cargo throughput depends on the relationship between time required by a cargo ship arriving at the port and the operational capacity of handling equipment at the port. At the same time, key factors affecting gross cargo throughput are analyzed. In order to test the efficiency of the model, the cargo volume of a port in Shandong Province was used as an example. In the case study the actual results matched our theoretical analysis.     

Design optimization of a torpedo shell structure

An optimized methodology to design a more robust torpedo shell is proposed. The method has taken into account reliability requirements and controllable and uncontrollable factors such as geometry, load, material properties, manufacturing processes, installation, etc. as well as human and environmental factors. The result is a more realistic shell design. Our reliability optimization design model was developed based on sensitivity analysis. Details of the design model are given in this paper. An example of a torpedo shell design based on this model is given and demonstrates that the method produces designs that are more effective and reliable than traditional torpedo shell designs. This method can be used for other torpedo system designs.     

An investigation of the performance of an electronic in-line pump system for diesel engines

WIT Electronic Fuel System Co., Ltd. has developed a new fuel injector, the Electronic In-line Pump （EIP） system, designed to meet China＇s diesel engine emission and fuel economy regulations. It can be used on marine diesel engines and commercial vehicle engines through different EIP systems. A numerical model of the EIP system was built in the AMESim environment for the purpose of creating a design tool for engine application and system optimization. The model was used to predict key injection characteristics under different operating conditions, such as injection pressure, injection rate, and injection duration. To validate these predictions, experimental tests were conducted under the conditions that were modeled. The results were quite encouraging and in agreement with model predictions. Additional experiments were conducted to study the injection characteristics of the EIP system. These results show that injection pressure and injection quantity are insensitive to injection timing variations, this is due to the design of the constant velocity cam profile. Finally, injection quantity and pressure vs. pulse width at different cam speeds are presented, an important injection characteristic for EIP system calibration.     

Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable

Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR.     

Simulation of turbulent effective wakes for propellers in off-design conditions by a correction factor approach

Journal of Marine Science and Technology - This paper presents a procedure for the estimation of propeller effective wakes in oblique flows. It shows how a recently developed method for controlling...     

The relationship between transportation vulnerability,school attendance,and free transportation to an afterschool program for youth

Transportation - Transportation vulnerability, defined as lack of access to transportation resulting in financial, social, or health consequences, reduces quality of life. While research has...