Multi‐criteria analysis for evaluating the impacts of intelligent speed adaptation

Road safety is a policy priority due to the high casualties and costs associated with road accidents. Since speed is a major cause of road accidents, in‐vehicle speed limiters or Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA), seems a promising solution. ISA implementation, however, is hindered by large uncertainties, for example about the impacts of ISA, the way users might respond to ISA, and the relationship between speed and accidents. Traditional Multi‐Criteria Analysis (MCA) has limitations in handling these uncertainties. We present an MCA approach based on exploratory modeling, which uses computational experiments to explore the multiple outcomes of ISA policies (safety, emissions, throughput, and cost) across a range of future demand scenarios, functional relationships for performance criteria, and user responses to ISA. As an illustration, by testing the impacts of different ISA penetration levels on two driver groups, we show that when compliance with ISA is expected to be low, a policy aimed only at novice drivers outperforms other ISA policies on safety improvement.     

Evaluation of consequence assessment methods for pool fires on water involving large spills from liquefied natural gas carriers

This article concerns thermal radiation hazards associated with unconfined liquefied natural gas (LNG) spills on water. Consequence assessment methods were compared to clarify their model characteristics in large-scale LNG spills from an LNG carrier (LNGC). The consequences of LNG release, pool spread, and pool fire hazards were estimated using the following practical methods: the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) method, the Sandia National Laboratories’ method, and the Fay method. The sensitivity of consequence analysis results to the breach size of a tank was examined under the assumption that LNG is released from a common type LNGC of 125000 m³ cargo capacity. Consequently, it was found that the FERC method is useful from the practical viewpoint of being applicable to any breach size. Finally, thermal radiation hazards from pool fires involving spills from one of the latest and largest LNGCs (250 000 m³ cargo capacity), which are currently considered for construction, were investigated using the recommended FERC method, and the results are discussed in comparison with those for common type LNGCs. As a result, it was found that the maximum thermal hazard distance is longer by only about 24% compared with the common type LNGC, whereas the spill volume is twice as much.     

Store-and-forward based methods for the signal control problem in large-scale congested urban road networks

The problem of designing network-wide traffic signal control strategies for large-scale congested urban road networks is considered. One known and two novel methodologies, all based on the store-and-forward modeling paradigm, are presented and compared. The known methodology is a linear multivariable feedback regulator derived through the formulation of a linear-quadratic optimal control problem. An alternative, novel methodology consists of an open-loop constrained quadratic optimal control problem, whose numerical solution is achieved via quadratic programming. Yet a different formulation leads to an open-loop constrained nonlinear optimal control problem, whose numerical solution is achieved by use of a feasible-direction algorithm. A preliminary simulation-based investigation of the signal control problem for a large-scale urban road network using these methodologies demonstrates the comparative efficiency and real-time feasibility of the developed signal control methods.     

Time domain modeling and simulation of warship flooding process based on counter-flooding activities北大核心CSCD

[目的]实战损伤条件下,舰艇进水是舱室进水漫延与舰员抗沉行为相对抗的过程。现有的不沉性理论无法客观、全面评估抗沉干预对战损舰艇进水过程的影响,缺少从全时域的角度对战损舰艇进水过程开展预测的手段。[方法]首先,分析抗沉干预下舰艇破损进水的耦合关系,构建进水过程时域模型,进而给出数值求解算法;其次,结合案例分析抗沉干预要素对不沉性的影响,并开发可视化、交互式的仿真系统。[结果]通过仿真系统实现了进水过程与多种抗沉干预方式的综合评估,是对现有不沉性理论的有效补充。[结论]该成果不仅可帮助设计人员掌握抗沉设计方案对干预进水过程的有效性,指导舰艇抗沉能力的设计;还可应用于抗沉指挥决策的态势预报,具有较高的军事应用价值。     

Mobile phone data in transportation research: methods for benchmarking against other data sources

The ubiquity of personal cellular phones in society has led to a surging interest in using Big Data generated by mobile phones in transport research. Studies have suggested that the vast amount of data could be used to estimate origin–destination (OD) matrices, thereby potentially replacing traditional data sources such as travel surveys. However, constructing OD matrices from mobile phone data (MPD) entails multiple challenges, and the lack of ground truth hampers the evaluation and validation of the estimated matrices. Furthermore, national laws may prohibit the distribution of MPD for research purposes, compelling researchers to work with pre-compiled OD matrices with no insight into the methods used. In this paper, we analyse a set of such pre-compiled OD matrices from the greater Oslo area and perform validation procedures against several sources to assess the quality and robustness of the OD matrices as well as their usefulness in transportation planning applications. We find that while the OD matrices correlate well with other sources at a low resolution, the reliability decreases when a finer level of detail is chosen, particularly when comparing shorter trips between neighbouring areas. Our results suggest that coarseness of data and privacy concerns restrict the usefulness of MPD in transport research in the case where OD matrices are pre-compiled by the operator.

     

大直径盾构隧道穿越建筑物群变形分析与控制措施北大核心CSCD

大直径盾构隧道掘进施工对土体造成扰动,导致地表产生沉降或隆起,继而严重威胁上部建筑物群的结构安全。文章依托某大直径盾构隧道穿越老旧小区密集建筑物群工程,首先利用二维有限元软件计算关键断面房屋的沉降变形,再对比三维有限元软件的计算结果,分析两种计算方法的适用范围;然后基于三维模型探究了不同初期荷载释放率对盾构穿越引起的地表和房屋变形的影响,最后利用Peck公式计算的理论地表沉降数据,梳理初期荷载释放率、地表沉降、地层损失率三者的内部联系并提出了控制变形的相关措施。研究结果表明,初期荷载释放率越小,地表及房屋沉降也越小,对应的地层损失也越小;对于控制地表变形,减小荷载释放率等同于减小地层损失率;初期荷载释放率、地表沉降、地层损失率这三者减小的量值呈线性关系。     

Directed proxy signature in the standard model

A directed signature is a type of signature with restricted verification ability. Directed signatures allow only a designated verifier to check the validity of the signature issued to him, and at the time of trouble or if necessary, any third party can verify the signature with the help of the signer or the designated verifier. Directed signature schemes are widely used in situations where the receiver’s privacy should be protected. Proxy signatures allow an entity to delegate its signing capability to another entity in such a way that the latter can sign message on behalf of the former when the former is not available. Proxy signature schemes have found numerous practical applications such as distributed systems and mobile agent applications. In this paper, we firstly define the notion of the directed proxy signature by combining the proxy signature and directed signature. Then, we formalize its security model and present a concrete scheme in the standard model. Finally, we use the techniques from provable security to show that the proposed scheme is unforgeable under the gap Diffie-Hellman assumption, and invisible under the decisional Diffie-Hellman assumption.     

Guaranteed Cost Iterative Learning Control for Multi-Phase Batch Processes

Batch process is a typical multi-phase process. Due to the interaction between the phases of the batch process, high precision control in a single phase cannot guarantee high precision control of the whole batch process. In order to solve this problem, the guaranteed cost iterative learning control (ILC) of multi-phase batch processes is studied in this paper. Firstly, through introducing the output error, the state error and the extended information, the multi-phase batch process is transformed into an equivalent 2D switched system which has different dimensions. In addition, under the measurable condition, the guaranteed cost iterative learning control law with extended information is designed. The proposed control law ensures not only the stability of the system but also the optimal control performance. Next, in order to study the stability of the system and the minimum running time under the condition of stable running, the multi-Lyapunov function method is used. By means of the average dwell time method, the sufficient conditions ensuring system to be exponentially stable are given in the form of linear matrix inequality (LMI). Finally, the injection molding process is taken as an example to make simulation, which shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.     

How much can trip chaining reduce VMT? A simplified method

Trip chaining represents a way to reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) that does not require people to shift away from driving private automobiles. While the existing literature on trip chaining acknowledges this potential, little has been done by way of quantifying this. This research seeks to fill this gap by using a large travel survey from the San Francisco Bay area to model the VMT generated by automobile tours as a function of tour composition (i.e., the number and type of destinations on that tour). The model results indicate that many tours involving trips chains (i.e., those tours with more than one destination) generate significantly less VMT than would occur if the destinations in these tours were split into multiple tours with single destinations. Tours that combine a work and non-work destination (which are the most common types of trip chains) particularly demonstrate potential for VMT reduction. Adding a non-work destination to a work tour is usually (depending on the specific type of destination) predicted to result in a reduction of 6–11 VMT, or about 20–30 %. Adding two non-work destinations to a work tour is usually predicted to result in a reduction of 10–22 VMT, or about 25–50 %.