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541.
Monte Carlo analyses are generally considered the standard for uncertainty analysis. While accurate, these analyses can be expensive computationally. Recently, polynomial chaos has been proposed as an alternative approach to the estimation of uncertainty distributions (Hosder et al. A non-intrusive polynomial chaos method for uncertainty propagation in CFD simulations. In: 44th AIAA aerospace sciences meeting and exhibit, Reno, Nevada, 2006; Wu et al. Uncertainty analysis for parametric roll using non-intrusive polynomial chaos. In: Proceedings of the 12th international ship stability workshop, Washington, DC, USA, 2011). This approach works by representing the function as a series of orthogonal polynomials; the weights for which can be calculated via several methods. Previous studies have demonstrated the usefulness of this technique for comparatively simple systems such as parametric roll modeled by the Mathieu equation with normally distributed parameter values (Wu et al. Uncertainty analysis for parametric roll using non-intrusive polynomial chaos. In: Proceedings of the 12th international ship stability workshop, Washington, DC, USA, 2011). In the present work, a polynomial chaos method is applied to a nonlinear computational ship dynamics model with normally distributed input parameters. Test cases were selected where parametric roll was expected to potentially occur. The resulting probability distributions are compared to the results of a Monte Carlo analysis. In general, these results demonstrate good agreement between Monte Carlo simulation and polynomial chaos in the absence of capsize with significant computation gains found with polynomial chaos. Overall, we conclude that polynomial chaos is an effective tool for reducing simulation time costs when studying parametric roll, and potentially other ship dynamics phenomena, particularly in the absence of capsize-like bifurcations. 相似文献
542.
G. C. Pereira M. M. F. Oliveira L. P. Andrade R. P Espíndola K. G. van Hecke N. F. F. Ebecken 《Journal of Marine Science and Technology》2016,21(4):651-662
Coastal zones are among the most productive areas in the world, offering a wide variety of valuable habitats and ecosystems services. Despite the low population density in the Brazilian coastal zone, their distribution is quite concentrated near some coastal cities and state capitals. This concentration places enormous pressure on coastal resources. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to present an overview on the current status of SiMoCo (Sistema de Monitoramento Costeiro, or Coastal Monitoring System in English) project as a possible early warning system that can be integrated to the Brazilian Coastal Management Information System. This prototype platform provides a real-time access to the composition, organization and simulation of planktonic communities. First, our results demonstrate such a system detecting a target dinoflagellate; second, we apply structural and functional indexes to compare and characterize the ecological networks from two different coastal areas. Conclusions are made about SiMoCo’s feasibility and its possible contribution to the decision-making process within integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) strategies. 相似文献
543.
Vera Horigue Michael Fabinyi Robert L. Pressey Simon Foale Porfirio M. Aliño 《Coastal management》2016,44(1):71-91
In the Philippines, networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) are more complex than individual MPAs, primarily due to involvement of multiple governance units. Hence, there is a need to understand the influence of governance context of networks on management performance. We addressed this need indirectly by evaluating the participation of network members and the governance capacity of three MPA networks with varying sizes, histories, and compositions of local governments and constituencies. We defined participation as the involvement of local governments and other stakeholders in decision-making processes. We defined governance capacity as the ability to govern interactions of social, economic, and political processes and dynamics in a political unit. We used qualitative, semi-structured key informant interviews and focus group discussions to ascertain whether participation and governance capacity are influenced by network size, institutional arrangements, and social and political contexts. We found that the sizes of the MPA networks did not affect participation and governance capacity. Instead, participation and capacity were influenced by institutional arrangements and the socioeconomic and political contexts of the local governments involved. We found that less complicated network objectives and systems for engagement, more inclusive membership, better communication, incentive systems, and strong leadership enhanced participation and governance capacity. 相似文献
544.
Ruurd van der Meer M. Karin de Boer Viola Liebich Cato ten Hallers Marcel Veldhuis 《Coastal management》2016,44(6):547-568
The ballast water from ships carries marine organisms that have invasive potential. The International Maritime Organization Ballast Water Management Convention (2004) requires ballast water exchange or ballast water management (BWM) systems either onboard or ashore. Ships can be exempted on the basis of risk assessment, when exclusively sailing between specific ports or in an enclosed area. In reply to our questionnaire, the shipping sector argues that the North Sea is ecologically homogeneous and exemptions could therefore be granted. This paper proposes that the North Sea area is, in fact, not homogeneous in terms of hydrographical and biological conditions; therefore, ballast water is a relevant transport mechanism for organisms. Within the North Sea, the short shipping routes indicate a high risk for survival. We examined actual simulation models for ballast water risk assessment in the North Sea, and we have identified the major parameters that need to be included in such models. These models provided a basis; they further need to be combined and adapted for the purpose of evaluating the rationale for an exemption. We concluded that exemptions from BWM are not recommended for the North Sea area. Anticipating the Ballast Water Management Convention, ship owners might do well to study possibilities for installing BWM systems onboard. 相似文献
545.
介绍Tribon M2系统在船体平面建模中的应用,并对平面建模过程中使用的一些技巧和方法及出现的问题提出了几点看法. 相似文献
546.
In most developed countries motorized transportation is the dominant form of travel for long and short journeys. Transport-related
physical activity (TPA), however, is advocated as an appropriate transport mode for traveling short distances. The purpose
of this study is to explore the associations between private automobile availability, overall physical activity levels, and
TPA engagement in the adult population. A population-representative telephone survey assessed socio-demographics, private
automobile availability, overall physical activity levels, and travel to place of work/study and the convenience shop with
an adult sample (n = 2,000) residing in North Shore City, Auckland, New Zealand in April 2005. The majority of respondents reported unrestricted
(80%) or frequent (12%) private automobile availability. After controlling for covariates, binary logistic regression analyses
revealed those with no private automobile available were less likely to be classified as sufficiently active for health benefits
when compared to respondents with unrestricted private automobile availability. However, this finding was based on a small
minority (4%). Also, those reporting no private automobile availability were more likely to walk or cycle to place of employment
and the convenience shop when compared to those with unrestricted private automobile availability. Similar to other self-report
travel and physical activity survey tools, the questionnaire used potentially did not adequately capture TPA engagement. Future
TPA research needs to incorporate objective measures to address this issue.
相似文献
Hannah M. BadlandEmail: |
547.
This paper presents a comprehensive econometric modelling framework for daily activity program generation. It is for day-specific
activity program generations of a week-long time span. Activity types considered are 15 generic categories of non-skeletal
and flexible activities. Under the daily time budget and non-negativity of participation rate constraints, the models predict
optimal sets of frequencies of the activities under consideration (given the average duration of each activity type). The
daily time budget considers at-home basic needs and night sleep activities together as a composite activity. The concept of
composite activity ensures the dynamics and continuity of time allocation and activity/travel behaviour by encapsulating altogether
the activity types that are not of our direct interest in travel demand modelling. Workers’ total working hours (skeletal
activity and not a part of the non-skeletal activity time budget) are considered as a variable in the models to accommodate
the scheduling effects inside the generation model of non-skeletal activities. Incorporation of previous day’s total executed
activities as variables introduces day-to-day dynamics into the activity program generation models. The possibility of zero
frequency of any specific activity under consideration is ensured by the Kuhn-Tucker optimality conditions used for formulating
the model structure. Models use the concept of random utility maximization approach to derive activity program set. Estimations
of the empirical models are done using the 2002–2003 CHASE survey data set collected in Toronto.
相似文献
Eric J. MillerEmail: |
548.
A. Harifi A. Aghagolzadeh G. Alizadeh M. Sadeghi 《Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies》2008,16(6):731-741
Antilock brake system (ABS) has been designed to achieve maximum negative acceleration by preventing the wheels from locking. Research shows that the friction between road and tire is a nonlinear function of wheel slip. Therefore, maximum negative acceleration can be achieved by designing a suitable control system for wheel slip regulation at its optimum value. Since there is a lot of nonlinearity and uncertainty (uncertainty in mass and center of gravity of the vehicle and road condition) in vehicle dynamics, a robust control method should be used. In this research, a sliding mode controller for wheel slip control has been designed based on a two-axle vehicle model. Important considered parameters for vehicle dynamic include two separated brake torques for front and rear wheels as well as longitudinal weight transfer caused by the acceleration or deceleration. One of the common problems in sliding mode control is chattering phenomenon. In this paper, primary controller design has been improved using integral switching surface to reduce chattering effects. Simulation results show the success of integral switching surface in elimination of chattering side effects and by high performance of this controller. At the end, the performance of the designed controller has been compared with three of the prevalent papers results to determine the performance of sliding mode control integrated with integral switching surface. 相似文献
549.
Transportation infrastructure planning process requires cost–benefit analysis in the evaluation of project proposals. Value of time (VOT) facilitates the conversion of travel time savings, which is a significant proportion of benefits in monetary terms. In cases where VOT has not been established, planners resort to crude estimates that often results in erroneous or biased measurements of benefits. This is the case of the Western Visayas region in the Philippines where transportation studies are rare. Secondary cities and its peripheral regions have often been overlooked subjects of transportation studies. In this study, multinomial logit models using revealed preference data were estimated to facilitate the calculation of the VOT. The total cost, square of the total cost, and total time were identified as significant explanatory variables affecting mode choice. The square of the total cost term was introduced in the models in order to account for income effect. Results indicate that VOT estimates for the inter-island passenger transportation between Iloilo and Negros Occidental generally range from 78.15PHP to 179.15PHP (1.91USD to 4.37USD) depending on trip and traveller characteristics. 相似文献
550.
Simon?P.?BlaineyEmail author John?Armstrong Andrew?S.?J.?Smith John?M.?Preston 《Transportation》2016,43(3):425-442
This paper describes an integrated methodology for identifying potential ‘quick wins’ for mode shift from road to passenger rail transport. Firstly, a procedure for analysing rail’s relative competitiveness in the market for passenger transport between large urban areas is developed and then applied to a UK case study. The purpose of such analysis is to allow the identification of flows where rail is currently relatively uncompetitive (in terms of journey time in particular) and to assess the reasons for this poor performance, so that the issues which suppress rail use may be addressed. In parallel, a framework, methodology and tool for the assessment of existing and potential capacity (trains, seats, TEUs, etc.) is developed for both passenger and freight traffic, to identify and address network constraints. An illustrative example of the use of these demand and capacity assessment tools is then presented, with the tools used to identify and evaluate flows where rail demand is suppressed by poor service quality and where spare capacity exists which would allow the passenger rail service to be improved without requiring significant investments in infrastructure. The effects of such improvements on demand are predicted, and the cost implications of operating such additional services are discussed. The analysis suggests that there may be significant potential for increasing rail’s mode share by providing additional inter-urban services where rail currently offers an inferior service. 相似文献