The development of road and rail transport safety valuation in the United Kingdom

An extensive body of theoretical and empirical work has been undertaken in the UK since the middle of the last century on the estimation of values of safety for use in the appraisal of proposed transport projects, particularly road and rail. This research has focused largely on ‘willingness-to-pay’ based values in order to measure the strength of the travelling public's preference for marginal improvements in transport safety, relative to consumption of other goods and services. In terms of practical policy making, the research has resulted in a set of values for the prevention of statistical fatalities and non-fatal injuries that are applied not only in transport safety decision making, but also in other public sector contexts. This paper summarises the main findings of this research.     

Scenario construction for transport planning

This paper argues that the types of uncertainty having the most serious consequences for transport planning are not captured by existing modelling procedures, which typically rely on a limited amount of sensitivity testing of plans based on extrapolative forecasts. It recommends as an alternative scenario‐based planning, an approach which is finding increasing application in private sector policy formation. The paper summarises the origins of scenario planning and the gradual broadening in its range of application, before going on to suggest methods of scenario construction suitable for transport planning applications. It considers the arguments for and against associating probabilities with scenarios and also addresses the problems of formulating transport strategies and evaluating them within the context of a scenario‐based approach to strategy choice.     

The authors in this issue

This paper analyses the impacts on a particular region of a recent policy change regarding public transit subsidy in New Zealand, under which the contributions of local authorities are increased from 0 to 50% of net direct expenditures. The options open to the community are examined and their effects on regional income, future development and social equitability are analysed. It also illustrates the cost effectiveness of a natural monopoly under increased accountability.     

Competition for the German regional rail passenger market 5 years after regionalization

The paper investigates the competition for regional passenger rail services in Germany from 1996 to 2000 by using data mainly provided by regional authorities. It analyses data on the level of network characteristics, contract life, the Länder (i.e. regions), competitive placing procedures, and their winners as well as achieved cost and services improvements. It finds that with competition being rare, the amount of competitively placed services declined until recently. Only about half of the regional authorities gained experience with competitive placings, which points at the expertise deficit of these bodies. A diverse picture on competitive placings' characteristics such as network size and contract life appears. State-owned carrier DB AG remains the dominant player as it could win the majority of the competitively procured services. Private companies have played a minor role in the game up to now. Accomplished reduction of subsidies and improved service quality respectively provide an indication of the potential for enhancing efficiency in this market.     

Ludwig?s Ratchet and the Collapse of New England Groundfish Stocks

The stocks of principal groundfish species off New England have collapsed, creating economic hardship and dislocation in fishing communities from Rhode Island to Maine. In this article we analyze the causes of this collapse using the ?ratchet effect? described by Ludwig, Hilborn, and Walters (1993) as a framework. According to Ludwig, Hilborn, and Walters, powerful economic and political interests drive fisheries to overcapitalize and overexploit despite scientific evidence that stocks are declining. When the fishery is no longer economically viable, governments provide financial assistance to minimize economic hardship. When stocks increase there is another rush to invest, and the cycle repeats itself. The history of groundfish management in New England conforms well to this model. Optimism among fishers and government over U.S. control of this fishery in 1977 stimulated successive rounds of investment that built up excessive fishing capacity despite warnings from scientists that stocks were becoming weaker. Management regimes designed by the New England Fishery Management Council were ineffective in constraining fishing effort. Collapse of the stocks has led to severe restrictions on fishing and to government assistance. We suggest that the integration of science, management, and harvesting sectors through ecosystem-based management offers the best means of avoiding similar situations in the future.     

Transport deregulation and the economy wide implications of the wheeler‐Gilmour hypothesis

This paper focuses on the effects of deregulation of motor carriers in Australia. It is particularly concerned with the implications of regulatory reform beyond the transport sector and uses a general equilibrium approach to examine the economy wide effects of deregulation. Among other things the paper shows that the effects of deregulation are not evenly distributed across all types of industries. Furthermore it concludes that the magnitude of the effects from deregulation in any given industry is not necessarily correlated with the share of total costs devoted to the purchase of transportation services.

     

Changing patterns of urban travel Part 2. public transport and future patterns of travel

This two‐part paper contains most of a report prepared by TRRL for the European Conference of Ministers of Transport, and presented by one of the authors to the Council of Ministers in November 1984. Part 1, which was published in the January‐March 1986 issue of Transport Reviews, looked at the way cities have been changing over the years and the influence of growing car ownership on trip patterns. This part examines the changes in public transport use in more detail, considers the interactions between the various underlying trends, speculates on future travel patterns by both public and private means and considers the likely impact of land use and transport policies.     

Enjeux de la mise en accessibilité des transports publics: le rôle de la maîtrise d’usage et de la coproduction

Since the act of February 11, 2005, the policy objective is to make urban projects accessible for all. This political context is strengthened on one hand by a greater social demand relieved by associations, and on the other hand by the need to anticipate the consequences of ageing population. A qualitative survey conducted in the metropolitan areas of Paris and Grenoble, with representatives of associations, transport operators, communities, and experts, shows that the law is not enough. The issue of a successful accessibility lies particularly in the political will at local level and in the involvement of people to overcome flaws in local projects, through consultation and coproduction initiatives. The users’ knowledge makes the project evolving and adapting according to social demand. The user has an expertise gained from his experiences that no one can match. Therefore, it has a vital role in the development, implementation and evaluation of projects’ accessibility.     

Proximité aux infrastructures et croissance de l’emploi en ?le-de-France (1993–2008) : le r?le des transports à l’échelle intramétropolitaine

This article aims to analyze the role of proximity to transport infrastructures in employment growth within 291 municipalities located in the ?le-de-France region between 1993 and 2008. Based on the employment data from Unistatis, a multiple regression econometric model is estimated, first without variables describing proximity to infrastructure, and then integrating them in order to measure the gain in explanatory power. The results suggest that the role of infrastructure in employment growth rate is limited and varies according to economic sectors and network types.     

Dynamic location: an iconic model to synchronize temporal and spatial transportation data

This paper describes a model to synchronize the management and query of temporal and spatially referenced transportation data in geographic information systems (GIS). The model employs a method referred to as dynamic location, which facilitates spatial intersect queries from geographic shapes without the use of topological relationships. This is the inverse of how dynamic segmentation works in GIS. In contrast to dynamic segmentation, dynamic location stores geometry as an object within a single database field. This is an efficient, precise iconic model superseding the need for data decomposition into a complex set of tables. As an object model, the dynamic location process lends itself to high performance in an Internet, data-intensive, enterprise environment. Linear events are stored as {x, y} features, and not referenced to any route system. Route systems are built from {x, y, m} values (m for measure) and serve as number lines for mathematical operations. Any {x, y} object can then be referenced to either the Cartesian grid or any selected number line. This method offers the benefits of linear referencing, while making full use of a stable geodetic datum. Combinations of any {x, y} events may be placed over any {x, y, m} number line (route) and an intersect determined by looking through stacked {x, y, m} vertices of the coincident shapes. Since both geometry and shape reside in the same record, the use of “begin” and “end” dates facilitates full spatial and temporal version control. From a business process perspective, this creates a spatially enabled database, pulling GIS business functions back into the information technology mainstream.