Multivariate assimilation in MERCATOR project: New statistical parameters from forecast error estimation

The new operational prototype of Mercator (french Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment contribution) is composed of a North Atlantic primitive equation ocean model OPA (Ocean Parallel Algorithm between 20°S and 70°N, [Madec, G., P. Delecluse, M. Imbard and C. Lévy (1998). OPA8.1 ocean general circulation model reference manuel. Notes du pôle de modélisation IPSL. n°11: 91p]) and of a multivariate and multidata assimilation scheme [De Mey, P. and M. Benkiran (2002). “A multivariate reduced-order optimal interpolation method and its application in Mediterranean basin-scale circulation.” Ocean Forecasting : Conceptual basis and application, Pinardi, N., Springer Verlag.] This system has already given some significant improvements from previous Mercator configurations (M. Benkiran, personal communication). However some biases on ocean state still remain in the tropics where the reduced-order optimal interpolation scheme is suspected to be ill-parameted in the model forecast error. Indeed the guess error covariance matrix is decomposed into an error variance value and a spatio-temporal correlation function which are assumed to have some “good” properties (spatial homogeneity of the correlation function, constant ratio between signal and error variance). This study shows how we can use ensemble methods to validate these assumptions. We can see that the correlation function can reach negative values locally, mostly in regions of high variability contradictory with the homogeneous hypothesis. The reduced space used in the operational configuration is based on the signal seasonal Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). An empirical relationship between signal and error variance has been set and the correlation function is the same on every dimension of the reduced space. By projection of the estimated guess error variance onto the reduced space, we find a repartition of this quantity quite different to what was set in the system. The error statistics is found to be inhomogeneous compared to hypothesis made in the assimilation scheme. These two new parameters tested separately in the assimilation scheme gives significant improvements of the forecast and analysis results. This is particularly obvious in the tropics. But relationship between signal and error statistics (as assumed in the optimal interpolation) is found to be complex.     

A generalized model of pelagic biogeochemistry for the global ocean ecosystem. Part I: Theory

The set of equations for global ocean biogeochemistry deterministic models have been formulated in a comprehensive and unified form in order to use them in numerical simulations of the marine ecosystem for climate change studies (PELAGOS, PELAgic biogeochemistry for Global Ocean Simulations). The fundamental approach stems from the representation of marine trophic interactions and major biogeochemical cycles introduced in the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM). Our theoretical formulation revisits and generalizes the stoichiometric approach of ERSEM by defining the state variables as Chemical Functional Families (CFF). CFFs are further subdivided into living, non-living and inorganic components. Living CFFs are the basis for the definition of Living Functional Groups, the biomass-based functional prototype of the real organisms. Both CFFs and LFGs are theoretical constructs which allow us to relate measurable properties of marine biogeochemistry to the state variables used in deterministic models. This approach is sufficiently generic that may be used to describe other existing biomass-based ecosystem model.     

Methods of determining choice probability in utility maximising multiple alternative models

Methods of estimating choice probabilities between multiple alternatives are described, within the context of various methods of specifying the degree of correlation between the alternatives. A utility maximising framework is assumed. The models described are based either on the logit family or multinomial probit. Two new methods of analytical approximation for the multinomial probit model are introduced, which appear to show significant advantages over the traditional Clark method. Some comparative results of choice probability estimates are presented to support this contention. The conclusion discusses the relative usefulness of different choice estimation methods for different types of problem.     

An analysis of the Brazilian ship financing system

The Brazilian ship financing system has some unique features. The funds made available to finance the construction and acquisition of ships are sourced from a tax on import and cabotage freight, payable by the shippers. For Brazilian flagged ships, a portion of the tax generated can be used for the payment of loan instalments. This paper analyses the impact of the tax on the economy as a whole, and discusses the distribution of the tax burden between the shipowner and the shipper, taking into account the maritime transport demand elasticities in Brazil. The paper also analyses the effectiveness of the financing system in reducing the capital cost to shipowner, and the distortion effects produced by the utilization of the tax in loan repayments. The conclusion is that there are important distortions that may threaten the recovery of the maritime industry in Brazil.     

Recent Development in Active Steering of Railway Vehicles

Summary This paper presents the recent development on active steering for railway vehicles, and carries out a technical appraisal of different actuation schemes and control approaches. It brings together the latest research activities and findings for the full active steering techniques for rail vehicles with the solid-axle wheelsets, independently-rotating wheelsets and wheel-pairs without axles, but relevant work on passive and semi-active solutions is also briefly described. Potential benefits of the use of a combination of modern control technology and mechatronic approach are evaluated, and in particular solutions for the difficult design trade-off between the stability and the curving performance are presented. Various actuation configurations are discussed, and advantages and drawbacks of those schemes are investigated. The outline design using a number of control methods is analysed, and measurement requirement and state estimation techniques essential for implementation of the active steering schemes are also explored. In addition the issue of safety criticality is highlighted and a possible approach for developing fault-tolerant systems is proposed. Overall the paper provides an authoritative assessment of the major advances in actively-steered wheels and addresses outstanding critical issues.     

Talgo XXI客运豪华摆式列车

Talgo XXI是速度至220 km/h的现代化高速低地板摆式列车,其编组可按当时的客运量加以改变和调整.按用户愿望Talgo公司可为用户承担整个列车的维修,采用这种方式保证列车有很高的使用率和可靠性,考虑了用户的最大要求.     

The West African coastal upwelling filaments and cross-frontal water exchange conditioned by them

One of the important problems in the oceanography of the wind-driven upwelling regions of the Ocean is the investigation of water exchange processes in the coastal zone. Satellite data (thermal and colour imagery) have changed our view on these processes after the relatively recent discovery of cold, chlorophyll-rich, narrow (< 50 km wide) offshore flowing filaments off the west coasts of North America, North and South Africa. On the basis of satellite IR images and oceanographic original and archive data we investigated systems of filaments in the northwest and southwest African upwelling regions. The spatial distribution of filaments was analyzed. It was found that seasonal variability of the filaments' location depends upon the general intensity of upwelling motion along the coast during the year. The main statistical characteristics of filaments were obtained. An example of the three-dimensional velocity structure of the filament was presented. In order to estimate the intensity of cross-frontal exchange process due to filaments, a special procedure was proposed. The values of the velocity of cross-frontal water exchange produced by filaments in these upwelling zones are obtained. It was shown that upwelling filaments play an important role in water exchange between the coastal zone and the open ocean. A non-dimensional parameter which characterizes the permeability of oceanic fronts for water exchange due to mesoscale dynamical structures was introduced and estimated.     

Glacial–interglacial changes in the accumulation rates of major biogenic components in Southern Indian Ocean sediments

In this study we compare major biogenic components (opal-A, carbonate, and organic carbon) and authigenic uranium accumulation rates from the southeastern Indian Ocean for both Holocene and glacial periods. Integrated accumulation rates across the whole Indian sector of the Southern Ocean indicate that the burial of organic carbon which is held approximately constant, contrasts with lower biogenic silica and carbonate burial rates during glacial intervals. In addition, higher glacial accumulation rates of authigenic uranium are found in the sediments of the Polar Front Zone (PFZ) and the Sub-Antarctic zone (SAZ) than anywhere in the modern Southern Ocean. This suggests more reducing conditions in the PFZ and SAZ during the last glacial maximum. The simplest explanation of a northward shift of the PFZ cannot explain such changes. Glacial sediment burial changes result probably from deep water decrease in oxygen levels and increase in CO₂ due to combination of two processes: (1) hydrologic changes and (2) continuous organic carbon export fluxes to the seafloor. Such shifts in chemical conditions could have enhanced the dissolution of carbonates and better preserved the organic carbon in sediments, leading in significant changes of biogenic silica/C_org and CaCO₃/C_org flux ratios.