An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for estimating the number of vehicles for queue management at signalized intersections

Queue management is a valuable but underutilized technique which could be used to minimize the negative impacts of queues during oversaturated traffic conditions. One of the main obstacles of applying queue management techniques along signalized arterials is the unavailability of a robust and sufficiently accurate method for measuring the number of vehicles approaching a signalized intersection. The method based on counting vehicles as they enter and exit a specific detection zone with check-in and check-out detectors is unreliable because of the likely systematic under or over counting and the resulting cumulative errors. This paper describes the application of the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in the development of a new fuzzy logic-based approach for estimating the Number of Vehicles in a Detection Zone (NVDZ) by using detector time-occupancy data (instead of detector counts). Microscopic simulation results are used to evaluate the accuracy of the NVDZ estimates. Tests were carried out to determine the transferability of a tuned Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and to check the sensitivity of the calibrated FIS to detection coverage, the location of the detection zone relative to the signalized (bottleneck) intersection, the length of the detection zone, and different signal timings at the bottleneck intersection. Results show that the NVDZ estimation based on fuzzy logic seems to be a feasible approach. Although the primary objective of developing the NVDZ estimation technique has been queue management, other applications such as ramp metering and incident detection could potentially use the same technique.     

Modelling users’ behaviour of a carsharing program: Application of a joint hazard and zero inflated dynamic ordered probability model

This paper presents an econometric model for the behaviour of carsharing users. The econometric model is developed to jointly forecast membership duration, the decision to become an active member in a particular month, and the frequency of monthly usage of active members. The model is estimated using the membership directory and monthly transaction data of a carsharing program, ‘Communauto Inc.’, based in Montréal, Canada. The model shows a high degree of fit to the observed dataset and provides many behavioural details of carsharing users. The results are instructive to carsharing planners in devising efficient policies.     

Distributed work and travel behaviour: The dynamics of interactive agency choices between employers and employees

This paper develops a framework within which multiple agents make discrete choices in respect of a common objective – the determination of participation in distributed work, especially the opportunities and constraints associated with telecommuting. Ideas in discrete choice theory and game theory are combined to define a set of choice experiments in which employees and employers interact in arriving at a choice path in a distributed work context. A state choice experiment with offers and feedback, known as an interactive agency choice experiment (IACE), is empirically investigated in the context of telecommuting options with an exploratory sample of employees and employers in Sydney, Australia. The approach highlights the role of information and negotiation in breaking down the barriers to more flexible work activity, to deliver potential benefits to the transport system such as reduced traffic congestion and environmental sustainability. The paper identifies the types of incentives that an employee/er has to offer the employer/employee in securing effective telecommuting. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Micro-simulation of daily activity-travel patterns for travel demand forecasting

The development and initial validation results of a micro-simulator for the generation of daily activity-travel patterns are presented in this paper. The simulator assumes a sequential history and time-of-day dependent structure. Its components are developed based on a decomposition of a daily activity-travel pattern into components to which certain aspects of observed activity-travel behavior correspond, thus establishing a link between mathematical models and observational data. Each of the model components is relatively simple and is estimated using commonly adopted estimation methods and existing data sets. A computer code has been developed and daily travel patterns have been generated by Monte Carlo simulation. Study results show that individuals' daily travel patterns can be synthesized in a practical manner by micro-simulation. Results of validation analyses suggest that properly representing rigidities in daily schedules is important in simulating daily travel patterns. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Properties of a traffic control policy which ensure the existence of a traffic equilibrium consistent with the policy

We consider a network with interactions and capacity constraints at each junction. We give conditions on the interactions and constraints which, if satisfied at each separate junction, ensure that any feasible assignment problem has an equilibrium solution. Two illustrative examples are provided; the first arises naturally and does not satisfy our conditions, while the second does satisfy our conditions but is somewhat unnatural.     

Short-term post-earthquake bus transit planning in Managua

In December 1972 an earthquake hit Managua, Nicaragua, killing 5,000 inhabitants, while wounding 20,000 persons and destroying its core area of 13 square kilometers. The earthquake also seriously disrupted the bus transit system. Bus transit patronage fell as a result of the loss of population of 144,000 persons who moved temporarily out of the city, while costs rose appreciably as both round trip bus distances and the proportion of the trips on unpaved roads doubled with respect to pre-earthquake levels. By September 1973, ten of the thirteen bus companies were on the verge of bankruptcy and were demanding from the regulatory body stiff increases in fares.This paper presents analyses and recommendations for improving the short-term efficiency of bus routes in Managua by applying planning techniques suited to the data availability problems of developing countries.In view of the lack of cost data for the bus routes, a cost analysis was conducted; Jan de Weille's cost factors were adapted to Nicaragua to portray the near bankrupt condition of most routes. These cost factors were verified by means of selected interviews with the private transit entrepreneurs.Next, a simple patronage prediction model was developed which related patronage for a route to the population and employment served by the route. This simple patronage model was then applied to redesign the bus routes of Managua. A policy of bus route redesign coupled with the paving of city streets along the bus routes is shown to have sufficed in avoiding fare increases. Finally, the paper reviews the bus transit regulatory setting and develops some recommendations for its improvement.Adjunct Associate Professor of the Catholic University of America. This study was conducted while the author was stationed in Nicaragua as a consultant to Harvard Development Advisory Service.