Accessibility in the regional CGE framework: the effects of major transport infrastructure investments in Poland

Transportation - Since its EU accession, Poland has invested strongly in the development of fast road transport network. As a result, the total length of modern, high-speed roads has increased from...     

Lane change algorithm for autonomous vehicles via virtual curvature method

This paper addresses the lane changing problem of autonomous vehicles when there is no road infrastructure support. The autonomous vehicle should drive from the current lane to the adjacent lane in the absence of a reference path to guide the vehicle to the new lane. We suggest an algorithm that incorporates a virtual road curvature with bicycle model for lane change guidance. As the name suggests, the virtual road curvature does not physically exist. It is a user assigned radius of a curved path which connects the current lane to the adjacent lane. Since the lateral sensor readings during lane changing maneuver are erroneous, the steering angle along with the virtual curvature is fed into a bicycle model to estimate the lateral position during the transition to the next lane. Details of the algorithm and the virtual road curvature determination are presented in the paper. In contrast to other lane changing methods, controller switching is not required and the same controller is for both lane keeping and lane changing. The algorithm is verified experimentally and the results are comparable with lane changing with physical transition lane.     

Tollroads are only part of the overall trip: the error of our ways in past willingness to pay studies

With rare exception, actual tollroad traffic in many countries has failed to reproduce forecast traffic levels, regardless of whether the assessment is made after an initial year of operation or as long as 10 years after opening. Pundits have offered many reasons for this divergence, including optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, the promise to equity investors of early returns on investment, errors in land use forecasts, and specific assumptions underlying the traffic assignment models used to develop traffic forecasts. One such assumption is the selection of a behaviourally meaningful value of travel time savings (VTTS) for use in a generalised cost or generalised time user benefit expression that is the main behavioural feature of the traffic assignment (route choice) model. Numerous empirical studies using stated choice experiments have designed choice sets of alternatives as if users choose a tolled route or a free route under the (implied) assumption that the tolled route is tolled for the entire trip. Reality is often very different, with a high incidence of use of a non-tolled road leading into and connecting out of a tolled link. In this paper we recognise this feature of route choice and redesign the stated choice experiment to account for it. Furthermore, this study is a follow up to a previous study undertaken before a new toll road was in place, and it benefits from real exposure to the new toll road. We find that the VTTS is noticeably reduced, and if the VTTS is a significant contributing influence on errors on traffic forecasts, then the lower estimates make sense behaviourally.     

The missing link: bicycle infrastructure networks and ridership in 74 US cities

Cities promote strong bicycle networks to support and encourage bicycle commuting. However, the application of network science to bicycle facilities is not very well studied. Previous work has found relationships between the amount of bicycle infrastructure in a city and aggregate bicycle ridership, and between microscopic network structure and individual tripmaking patterns. This study fills the missing link between these two bodies of literature by developing a standard methodology for measuring bicycle facility network quality at the macroscopic level and testing its association with bicycle commuting. Bicycle infrastructure maps were collected for 74 Unites States cities and systematically analyzed to evaluate their network structure. Linear regression models revealed that connectivity and directness are important factors in predicting bicycle commuting after controlling for demographic variables and the size of the city. These findings provide a framework for transportation planners and policymakers to evaluate their local bicycle facility networks and set regional priorities that support nonmotorized travel behavior, and for continued research on the structure and quality of bicycle infrastructure and behavior.     

A joint flexible econometric model system of household residential location and vehicle fleet composition/usage choices

Modeling the interaction between the built environment and travel behavior is of much interest to transportation planning professionals due to the desire to curb vehicular travel demand through modifications to built environment attributes. However, such models need to take into account self-selection effects in residential location choice, wherein households choose to reside in neighborhoods and built environments that are conducive to their lifestyle preferences and attitudes. This phenomenon, well-recognized in the literature, calls for the specification and estimation of joint models of multi-dimensional land use and travel choice processes. However, the estimation of such model systems that explicitly account for the presence of unobserved factors that jointly impact multiple choice dimensions is extremely complex and computationally intensive. This paper presents a joint GEV-based logit regression model of residential location choice, vehicle count by type choice, and vehicle usage (vehicle miles of travel) using a copula-based framework that facilitates the estimation of joint equations systems with error dependence structures within a simple and flexible closed-form analytic framework. The model system is estimated on a sample derived from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Household Travel Survey. Estimation results show that there is significant dependency among the choice dimensions and that self-selection effects cannot be ignored when modeling land use-travel behavior interactions.     

应用于国Ⅲ摩托车的富钯涂层配方的研究

通过对不同催化作用涂层的对比,特别是针对小型摩托车活性、耐久性和贵金属成本的应用设计,提出以钯为主要或单一活性贵金属化合物涂料的研究数据,这些数据是通过使用合成气体反应器,对涂敷后的催化剂进行模拟发动机废气测试得到的。通过试验表明,较低成本的富钯催化涂料可用于小型摩托车的有效减排。此外,在110mL缸头补气与125mL中间补气摩托车上,按照摩托车欧Ⅲ和国Ⅲ排放法规运行ECER40冷起动循环,对不同配方催化剂的活性进行了测试,这些结果将与合成气体反应器测试结果相关联。     

Variances and covariances for origin-destination flows when estimated by log-linear models

An expression is derived for the variances and covariances of the logarithms of origin- destination flows when estimated by one of a family of log-linear models. Among this family is the Furness growth factor model, the gravity model, the Willumsen model and the Van Zuylen-Bell model. Variances and covariances for the logarithms of the parameters incorporating prior information and for the values of the constraints with which the fitted values must conform are transformed linearly into approximate variances and covariances for the logarithms of the fitted values. Additional error due to misspecification of either the model or the constraints is not taken into account. Depending on the model, the prior information parameters may correspond to values of a deterrence function or to a base year trip matrix, while the constraints may represent design year trip end totals or traffic counts. As an illustration, the expression is applied to an example involving Willumsen's model.     

Passenger car units in saturation flows: Concept,definition, derivation

Passenger car units (pcus) are traditionally used to represent the effects of changes in traffic composition (the mix of cars, goods vehicles, buses, ad so on) on the saturation flows at traffic signal junctions. This paper describes in the results obtained by the two main methods of derivation of pcu values, regression analysis of asynchronous vehicles counts (asynchronous regression) and headway ratio methods, when applied to data from two large public road studies. The relationship between the various methods of derivation used is investigated. Regression analysis of synchronous vehicle counts, Webster's method, and headway ratio methods are seen to agree, but asynchronous regression necessarily gives lower results so long as there is variability in the headways of vehicles of a given class (e.g. in car-to-car headways). Alternative method of regression analysis of asynchronous counts is investigated but found to be biased, although les so than the existing method. Conventional asynchronous regression gives unbiased saturation flow estimates if unbiased prior pcu values are used. The effects of assumed pcu values on signal settings and consequent delays in subsaturation conditions are examined. Value corresponding to delay-minimising settings are close to the ratio of the mean headways of the appropriate vehicle classes.     

The Gothenburg traffic restraint scheme

Officials at various levels around the world are getting increasingly worried about the growth in automobile ownership and all the associated environmental problems that this implies. Voices are often heard advocating the exclusion of automobiles from the central areas of cities, much easier to say than to realise, unless the area is entirely reconstructed under a comprehensive redevelopment scheme, as, for instance, in the city of Västeras, Sweden. Another possible solution is to introduce some type of traffic restraint scheme involving compulsory rearrangement of the vehicular flow through the central area.The report deals firstly with an experiment carried out during the highly intensive, pre-Christmas shopping days in December 1969, when parts of the central business area of the city of Gothenburg, Sweden (population around 450,000) were closed to all unauthorised vehicles. The experience gained with this scheme was valuable when the next stage was being planned, i.e., a permanent traffic restraint scheme which was put into effect on August 18, 1970. Most of the report deals with the objectives, planning, realisation, and experience of the traffic restraint scheme, which involved dividing the central business area into five separate zones. During the first six months, several surveys were conducted to establish the impact of the scheme on vehicular flow, parking, pedestrian flow, public transport, accidents, air pollution, noise, and retail businesses.The scheme put into operation in Gothenburg has been a great success, having accomplished most of its objectives, and will be expanded to cover a still larger area in subsequent years.This paper is an amended and updated version of one originally prepared in May 1971 for the Environment Directorate of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, whose permission to publish is gratefully acknowledged.     

Urban traffic studies from aerial photographs

Two problems concerning the use of aerial photographs for conducting traffic studies in urban areas are considered in this paper: (1) Suitable procedures requiring simple equipment and methods and the appropriate formulae for determining the traffic characteristics of density, volume, traffic count, speed, composition; (2) Problems relating to flight planning for traffic surveys from the points of view of duration of photography and the scale of the photography from considerations of the reliability of the determined traffic characteristics, vehicle identification, and also economy. The conclusions concerning the flight planning were applied in a test flight from which traffic data were determined as illustrated in a sample calculation.