Variances and covariances for origin-destination flows when estimated by log-linear models

An expression is derived for the variances and covariances of the logarithms of origin- destination flows when estimated by one of a family of log-linear models. Among this family is the Furness growth factor model, the gravity model, the Willumsen model and the Van Zuylen-Bell model. Variances and covariances for the logarithms of the parameters incorporating prior information and for the values of the constraints with which the fitted values must conform are transformed linearly into approximate variances and covariances for the logarithms of the fitted values. Additional error due to misspecification of either the model or the constraints is not taken into account. Depending on the model, the prior information parameters may correspond to values of a deterrence function or to a base year trip matrix, while the constraints may represent design year trip end totals or traffic counts. As an illustration, the expression is applied to an example involving Willumsen's model.     

Modeling drivers' diversion from normal routes under ATIS using generalized estimating equations and binomial probit link function

Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) provide travelers with real time traffic information to optimize their travel choices. The objective of this paper is to model drivers' diversion from their normal routes in the provision of ATIS. Five different scenarios of traffic information are used. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) framework with repeated observations and binomial probit link function is introduced and implemented. GEE with four different correlation structures including the independent case are developed and compared with each other and with regular Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). A travel simulator was used. Sixty-five subjects have traveled 10 simulated trial days each on a 40-link realistic network with real historical congestion levels. The results showed that providing traffic information increases the probability of drivers' diversion from their normal routes. Adding advice to the pre-trip and/or en-route information encourages drivers to divert. Providing en-route in addition to the pre-trip information with or without advice increases the diversion probability. High travel time on the normal route and less travel time on the diverted route increase the probability of diversion. High-educated drivers are less likely to divert. Expressway users are more likely to divert from their normal routes under ATIS. Drivers' familiarity with the device that provides the information and high number of traffic signals on the normal route increase the diversion probability.     

Design of a Stroke Dependent Damper for the Front Axle Suspension of a Truck Using Multibody System Dynamics and Numerical Optimization

Summary A stroke dependent damper is designed for the front axle suspension of a truck. The damper supplies extra damping for inward deflections rising above 4 cm. In this way the damper should reduce extreme suspension deflections without deteriorating the comfort of the truck. But the question is which stroke dependent damping curve yields the best compromise between suspension deflection working space and comfort. Therefore an optimization problem is defined to minimize the maximum inward suspension deflection subject to constraints on the chassis acceleration for three typical road undulations. The optimization problem is solved using sequential linear programming (SLP) and multibody dynamics simulation software. Several optimization runs have been carried out for a small two degree of freedom vehicle model and a large full-scale model of the truck semi-trailer combination. The results show that the stroke dependent damping can reduce large deflections at incidental road disturbances, but that the optimum stroke dependent damping curve is related to the acceleration bound. By means of vehicle model simulation and numerical optimization we have been able to quantify this trade-off between suspension deflection working space and truck comfort.     

Modeling Travel Time Under ATIS Using Mixed Linear Models

The objective of this paper is to model travel time when drivers are equipped with pre-trip and/or en-route real-time traffic information/advice. A travel simulator with a realistic network and real historical congestion levels was used as a data collection tool. The network included 40 links and 25 nodes. This paper presents models of the origin-to-destination travel time and en-route short-term route (link) travel time under five different types and levels of advanced traveler information systems (ATIS). Mixed linear models with the repeated observation's technique were used in both models. Different covariance structures (including the independent case) were developed and compared. The effect of correlation was found significant in both models. The trip travel time analysis showed that as the level of information increases (adding en-route to the pre-trip and advice to the advice-free information), the average travel time decreases. The model estimates show that providing pre-trip and en-route traffic information with advice could result in significant savings in the overall travel time. The en-route short-term (link) travel time analysis showed that the en-route short-term (link) information has a good chance of being used and followed. The short-term qualitative information is more likely to be used than quantitative information. Learning and being familiar with the system that provides the information decreases en-route short-term delay.     

Pragmatic Tyre Model for Short Wavelength Side Slip Variations

The first-order relaxation length concept is often used to model transient tyre behaviour. It gives a rather good representation of the lateral force response, also at shorter wavelengths. The self aligning moment appears to behave rather differently and its responses cannot be represented by a relaxation length system only. Based on the analytical frequency response functions of the pneumatic trail of the brush type tyre model, a new pragmatic approach is developed. The model consists of a phase leading system in series with the first-order model for the lateral force. The results are compared to the responses of a discrete brush type simulation model. It appears that the aligning moment can be represented by this new pragmatic model very well.     

Braking Force Distribution Control for Improved Vehicle Dynamics and Brake Performance

This paper describes the feasibility of improving the braking performance of a commercial vehicle by using an electronic braking system. An electronic braking system enables the braking force at each wheel to be independently controlled. Braking force distribution control makes the braking force at each wheel proportional to each wheel's load. Results of computer simulation and vehicle test showed that the proposed control laws can eliminate the effects of a laden condition on the braking distance and can increase the degree of deceleration at which wheel lock occurs, resulting in improved vehicle attitude stability during a critical maneuver.     

Two alternative definitions of traffic equilibrium

The paper shows that, under reasonable conditions, if there are junction or modal interactions then a Wardrop equilibrium exists but a user—optimised flow may well not.     

Fatigue analysis for a multi-lap spot welded joint of high strength steel using quasi static tensile-shear test

The welding quality of spot weldment is an important factor that significantly affects the strength, stiffness, safety, and other performance characteristics of vehicles. Therefore, quality control and fatigue life evaluation of spot weldment are necessary processes. This paper presents a method for determining the fatigue life of multi-lap spot weldment of a high strength steel sheet. In this method, the fatigue life is estimated using the lethargy coefficient, which is the total defect coefficient according to rupture stress and time obtained by the quasi static tensile-shear test. The DC potential drop method was used to check initiation and propagation of cracks in addition to the test. Also, in this study, we modified the lethargy coefficient by using the welding current. Furthermore, we define a specific lapping constant, which is a characteristic constant of 2 or 3 lap weldments. The fatigue life obtained by the fatigue estimate equation, which contains a specific lapping constant was compared and verified with an experimental value. Finally we analyzed the relation of lap number, welding current and fatigue life. This method can save processing time and cost for predicting the life cycle of a structure.