The importance of Öresund and the Drogden Sill for Baltic inflow

Based on high resolution current and salinity measurements from the Flinten and Drogden Channels, this paper assesses the relative importance of major Baltic inflows on ‘everyday' flow conditions of highly saline water (S>17 PSU) through the Öresund for a period of 43 months. During years with no major Baltic inflows, 1994–1996, it is found that the Öresund on average supplies 1.2 Peta-grams (Pg) of salt net/year to the Baltic, while inflow above 17 PSU is in the order of 2.3 to 4.0 Pg/year. Sixty percent of this inflow is in the salinity range 17–23 PSU; the remainder has a higher salinity. It is, thus, concluded that normal and regularly occurring flow in the Öresund plays a much larger role in supplying salt to the Baltic than is usually assumed.     

An algorithm for oceanic front detection in chlorophyll and SST satellite imagery

An algorithm is described for oceanic front detection in chlorophyll (Chl) and sea surface temperature (SST) satellite imagery. The algorithm is based on a gradient approach: the main novelty is a shape-preserving, scale-sensitive, contextual median filter applied selectively and iteratively until convergence. This filter has been developed specifically for Chl since these fields have spatial patterns such as chlorophyll enhancement at thermohaline fronts and small- and meso-scale chlorophyll blooms that are not present in SST fields. Linear Chl enhancements and localized (point-wise) blooms are modeled as ridges and peaks respectively, whereas conventional fronts in Chl and SST fields are modeled as steps or ramps. Examples are presented of the algorithm performance using modeled (synthetic) images as well as synoptic Chl and SST imagery. After testing, the algorithm was used on > 6000 synoptic images, 1999–2007, to produce climatologies of Chl and SST fronts off the U.S. Northeast.     

Management of coastal eutrophication: Integration of field data, ecosystem-scale simulations and screening models

A hybrid approach for eutrophication assessment in estuarine and coastal ecosystems is presented. The ASSETS screening model (http://www.eutro.org) classifies eutrophication status into five classes: High (better), Good, Moderate, Poor and Bad (worse). This model was applied to a dataset from a shallow coastal barrier island system in southwest Europe (Ria Formosa), with a resulting score of Good. A detailed dynamic model was developed for this ecosystem, and the outputs were used to drive the screening model. Four scenarios were run on the research model: pristine, standard (simulates present loading), half and double the current nutrient loading. The Ria Formosa has a short water residence time and eutrophication symptoms are not apparent in the water column. However, benthic symptoms are expressed as excessive macroalgal growth and strong dissolved oxygen fluctuations in the tide pools. The standard simulation results showed an ASSETS grade identical to the field data application. The application of the screening model to the other scenario outputs showed the responsiveness of ASSETS to changes in pressure, state and response, scoring a grade of High under pristine conditions, Good for half the standard scenario and Moderate for double the present loadings. The use of this hybrid approach allows managers to test the outcome of measures against a set of well-defined metrics for the evaluation of state. It additionally provides a way of testing and improving the pressure component of ASSETS. Sensitivity analysis revealed that sub-sampling the output of the research model at a monthly scale, typical for the acquisition of field data, may significantly affect the outcome of the screening model, by overlooking extreme events such as occasional night-time anoxia in tide pools.     

Economic impact of non-motorized transportation in Indian cities

Lack of a clear understanding regarding the economic impacts of non-motorized modes is a major reason why they are excluded from the transportation development agenda of cities in India. Keeping this aspect in mind the present study has been divided in to two parts. The first part tries to understand the non-motorized traffic evolution in India. It focuses on the declination of non-motorized modes, necessity to revamp it, the favorable conditions to promote them in India and the relative problems associated with it. It is found here that there is a necessity for defining the role of non-motorized modes in India for the viable implementation of infrastructure and policies related with it.     

Nutrient cycling and primary production in the marine systems of the Arctic and Antarctic

Primary production events in both the Arctic and the Antarctic are highly localized. Carbon-14 incubations that did not account for this caused antarctic primary production estimates to be revised too far downwards from the historic view of high productivity. The primary production regime in the Arctic is even more heterogeneous than in the Antarctic. Arctic primary production rates are in the process of being revised upwards because of a better spatial and temporal distribution of incubation experiments and a re-awakening of interest in estimating new production from the distribution of chemical variables. Similarly, recent examination of temporal changes in nitrate concentrations and recognition of the importance of ice-edge blooms has caused antarctic primary productivity to be revised upwards. In both the Arctic and the Antarctic, the ratio of “new” to total primary production is high, and neglect of this fact can lead to an underestimation of the potential that these regions have for influencing global cycles of bioactive chemicals. Some recent data on temporal changes in nitrate from Fram Strait emphasize the poor state of our knowledge by suggesting an unexpectedly high “new” production rate of 1 g C m⁻² d⁻¹ for a 35 day experiment that encountered an early Phaeocystis bloom. Chemical distributions suggest that new production over the shelf seas that border the Polar Basin is about 50 g Cm⁻² yr⁻¹.The shelves in the Arctic Ocean's marginal and adjacent seas comprise 25% of the total global continental shelf. These extensive shallow regions have much higher rates of primary production than the Polar Basin and may be globally significant sites of denitrification. Globally significant silica deposition could occur on these shelves or on the adjacent slopes.Because of the differences in geomorphology and stratification, global warming is likely to increase primary production in the Arctic and will probably decrease antarctic primary production.In addition to sharing high ratios of “new” to total primary production, high ammonium concentrations occur in the Arctic and Antarctic. It is possible that these accumulations arise from a strong repression of nitrification at low temperatures.     

Highway expenditures and non-metropolitan employment

Using data on state highway expenditures and employment from 30 Minnesota non-metropolitan counties over a 25-year period, possible interactions between transportation and employment are investigated. While crosssectional analysis suggests no significant interactions, causality tests and time-series analyses indicate that highway expenditures affect manufacturing and retail employment, and employment influences expenditures. Although expenditure increases cause employment improvements in the short-term, long-term effects are less favorable. Highway expenditures respond quickly to increased needs caused by retail improvements.     

A generalized model of pelagic biogeochemistry for the global ocean ecosystem. Part II: Numerical simulations

This paper presents a global ocean implementation of a multi-component model of marine pelagic biogeochemistry coupled on-line with an ocean general circulation model forced with climatological surface fields (PELAgic biogeochemistry for Global Ocean Simulations, PELAGOS). The final objective is the inclusion of this model as a component in an Earth System model for climate studies. The pelagic model is based on a functional stoichiometric representation of marine biogeochemical cycles and allows simulating the dynamics of C, N, P, Si, O and Fe taking into account the variation of their elemental ratios in the functional groups. The model also includes a parameterization of variable chlorophyll/carbon ratio in phytoplankton, carrying chl as a prognostic variable. The first part of the paper analyzes the contribution of non-local advective–diffusive terms and local vertical processes to the simulated chl distributions. The comparison of the three experiments shows that the mean chl distribution at higher latitudes is largely determined by mixing processes, while vertical advection controls the distribution in the equatorial upwelling regions. Horizontal advective and diffusive processes are necessary mechanisms for the shape of chl distribution in the sub-tropical Pacific. In the second part, the results have been compared with existing datasets of satellite-derived chlorophyll, surface nutrients, estimates of phytoplankton community composition and primary production data. The agreement is reasonable both in terms of the spatial distribution of annual means and of the seasonal variability in different dynamical oceanographic regions. Results indicate that some of the model biases in chl and surface nutrients distributions can be related to deficiencies in the simulation of physical processes such as advection and mixing. Other discrepancies are attributed to inadequate parameterizations of phytoplankton functional groups. The model has skill in reproducing the overall distribution of large and small phytoplankton but tends to underestimate diatoms in the northern higher latitudes and overestimate nanophytoplankton with respect to picoautotrophs in oligotrophic regions. The performance of the model is discussed in the context of its use in climate studies and an approach for improving the parameterization of functional groups in deterministic models is outlined.     

Validation of a schedule‐based capacity restraint transit assignment model for a large‐scale network

This paper describes the application of a capacity restraint trip assignment algorithm to a real, large‐scale transit network and the validation of the results. Unlike the conventional frequency‐based approach, the network formulation of the proposed model is dynamic and schedule‐based. Transit vehicles are assumed to operate to a set of pre‐determined schedules. Passengers are assumed to select paths based on a generalized cost function including in‐vehicle and out‐of‐vehicle time and line change penalty. The time‐varying passenger demand is loaded onto the network by a time increment simulation method, which ensures that the capacity restraint of each vehicle during passenger boarding is strictly observed. The optimal‐path and path‐loading algorithms are applied iteratively by the method of successive averages until the network converges to the predictive dynamic user equilibrium. The Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway network is used to validate the model results. The potential applications of the model are also discussed.     

Use of a probabilistic particle tracking model to simulate the Prestige oil spill

A probabilistic particle tracking model is used to simulate the oil dispersion after the Prestige wreckage. This oil spill constitutes a suitable benchmark to analyze the capabilities of a probabilistic model, since the time elapsed from wreckage to oil landing (12 days) is much longer than the reliability time associated with forecast winds, usually on the order of 3–4 days. The particle model can be run in two different modes: real time mode (when existing reliable wind fields for the event under scope) and in probabilistic mode (in absence of reliable wind fields but with historical fields corresponding to a similar period). The validity of the particle model is first evaluated in a hindcast way, running the Prestige case with the wind fields corresponding to the period November 19 to November 30, 2002, which were not available at the moment of the wreckage. Calculations show the accuracy of the model to provide the right impact point and timing. The probabilistic model is then used to simulate the same event by means of historical data. The region where the oil landed is shown to be the area with the highest probability to be impacted.     

Improved customs inspection at a small international airport: Case study: Colombo

The present procedures for processing arriving passengers at the Colombo International Airport cause inordinte waiting times. An alternate plan, which is based on state of the art customs procedures, and which can reduce waiting times significantly while maintaining a high level of enforcement, is proposed. The present and proposed procedures are analyzed and compared with respect to passenger waiting times, using deterministic queueing theory. An optimal inspection rate of passengers by the customs service is proposed taking into account the fraction of inspected passengers, the waiting time of passengers and the cost of customs processing.