An analysis of seasonality of non-OPEC supply

The purpose of this study is first to find out whether quarterly averages of non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) supply follow a seasonal pattern. If that is mathematically established, then, second, it is attempted to estimate the best seasonal factors to decompose the forecast yearly average into quarterly averages. A set of historical data consisting of quarterly supply averages of individual countries, regional subtotals and the aggregate non-OPEC supply for the period 1973-2002 forms the basis of the analysis. The study applies Fourier analysis to quarterly supply series to test for seasonality, and provides estimates of seasonal factors for the years 2000-2002 by applying the so-called X-11 decomposition method to the historical annual averages. The accuracy of the results of the application of X-11 is then tested. It is demonstrated that the combination of the Fourier and X-11 methods provides mostly acceptable and in some cases, such as that of China, impressively accurate forecast quarterly supply averages.     

Discrete Adaptive Active Suspension for Hardware Implementation

This paper presents a discrete adaptive control approach for an active suspension. The study involves formulation of an active suspension as a digital controller problem involving the time delays. A nonlinear time varying (NTV), single input single output (SISO) suspension model is considered for the analysis. A discrete model reference adaptive control (DMRAC) approach with recursive least square (RLS) estimation is used to form the controller. The controller is designed to maintain the static equilibrium irrespective of dynamic load variations as a disturbance force on the model. Simulation results for deterministic and stochastic inputs are presented to substantiate the approach. Results indicate good performance of adaptive controller even for large dynamic variations of the model and has the potential for a successful hardware implementation.     

The port-routeing behaviour of short-sea ship operators; theory and practice

This paper provides an interpretation of a port-routeing pattern of short-sea shipping services which has emerged in recent years. After basic definition. a macro theory of port routeing is presented together with an examination of the business environment of operation. Greater refinement is subsequently added with reference to the behavioural characteristics displayed by a number of individual ship operating companies in port routeing as revealed by a series of in-depth interviews. Specific illustration is provided by the Great Britian-Frances market and the paper concludes by suggesting some factors to influence the development of the future port-routeing pattern.     

A note on using Davidson's function in equilibrium assignment

This paper describes the use of the Davidson congestion function in modelling network flows using equilibrium assignment. A modification to the function is given, which defines the function over all flows values, and consequently removes computational difficulties noted in earlier studies. The modification requires the inclusion of an additional model parameter, and the selection of a suitable value for this parameter is studied for two sets of data. The modified Davidson function is also compared to two alternative functions; a step-wise linear function and a quartic polynomial function, which have both been proposed as congestion functions. Comparisons are made between observed link volumes and the assigned volumes from these models. It is concluded that the modified Davidson function is useful for inclusion in an equilibrium assignment model, given its ability to reflect differences in network link type (e.g. capacity and speed) and environment through its parameters, the conceptual advantage of the function through its derivation from queueing theory, and the previous discovery of reliable methods for estimating its parameters. A value of about 0.8–0.9 is suggested for the parameter (μ, 0 < μ < 1) introduced in the modification.     

Spatial variations in attitudes toward expanded public transit service

Although recent budgetary considerations by the Federal govenment do not portend well for urban public transit, some transit systems are considering expansion into less densely-settled areas further from the Central Business District. Of some concern to planners has been their belief that suburban and rural dwellers may be much less inclined than urban dwellers to support expansion of transit service. This paper presents an analysis of a random-digit dialing/mail-out, mail-back survey conducted in Washtenaw County, Michigan which was designed specifically to examine differences in attitudes between urban and rural residents. Six mutually-exclusive spatial strata were established based upon population density. This paper tests for expected spatial differences in socioeconomic and demographic variables and then examines spatial variations in attitudes toward public transportation. The major conclusion is that the expected spatial variations in attitudes about transit service provision between the spatial strata do not arise. Most of the significant differences found are with respect to questions which relate to where transit is provided. Residents in rural (urban) areas support more strongly the provision of services to rural (urban) areas. Many residents, however, will support transit service that may not benefit them directly.     

Active Controls in Ground Transportation — A Review of the State-of-the-Art and Future Potential

Active control systems offer significant functional advantages over passive systems; their introduction into production-line vehicles, however, is cautious and slow. This survey describes the recent progress in the analysis, design and technology of active controls in vehicles. It includes the state-of-the-art of their introduction into operation as well as their future potential in view of recent advances in technology and computer aided design strategies. The survey has been limited to suspensions for vehicles on roads and tracks.     

A Tractor Handling Study

Agricultural tractors are relatively slow moving vehicles but a good steer response under all working conditions is generally required. This paper evaluates the effect of ground slope, axle load, ground speed, tyres and ground surface on yaw rate response to steer input.     

Maritime language: quest for simplicity

This brief paper examines some of the problems of interpretation of documents and procedures given in English faced by non-English seafarers, and suggests the use of 'controlled' English to simplify these problems.

' Speak English ', said the Eaglet, ' I don't know the meaning of half those long words, and what's more, I don't believe you do either. '

Alice's Adventures in Wonderland

Lewis Carroll