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81.
Carsharing is an innovative travel alternative that has recently experienced considerable growth and become part of sustainable transportation initiatives. Although carsharing is becoming increasingly a popular alternative transportation mode in North America, it is still an under‐researched area. Current research is aimed at better understanding of the behavior of carsharing users. For every member, a two‐stage approach microsimulates the probability of being active in any month using a binary probit model and given that a particular member is active during a month, the probability of that member using the service multiple times using a random utility‐based model. The model is estimated using empirical data from one of the largest carsharing companies in North America. The model estimates reveal that the activity persistency of members is positively linked to previous behaviors for up to 4 months, and that the influence of previous months weakens over time. It also shows that some attributes of the traveler (gender, age, and language spoken at home) impact his or her behaviors. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
82.
Analysis of factors that may be essential in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners 下载免费PDF全文
This research investigates factors that influence opinion in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners primarily from the perspective of aviation and technology professionals. Bayesian statistical inference and a two‐level fractional factorial survey are used to sample passengers' views on fully autonomous airliners. Eight trust, safety, and cost factors are incorporated into a vignette set in the future. Factors include automation levels, safety records, liability guarantees, airline integrity, and service disruptions. Dependent variables exist in five post‐vignette questions and essentially ask “Would you” or “Would you not” be willing to fly on a fully autonomous airliner? Sixteen versions of the vignette, each with unique trust, safety, and cost levels, present varying (unknown) degrees of influence to the survey respondents. For every demographic, the research shows a 99% statistically significant difference between the “prior” and “posterior” sampled population proportions willing to fly. The most significant positive influence involves integrity characteristics of the airline, while the most negative influence relates to life insurance liability guarantees. Research from 2003 suggested that this mode of travel would be acceptable to only 10.5% of respondents. When the 2003 research is used as a Bayesian prior probability, the resulting posterior probability for the demographics sampled can be modeled as a beta distribution, indicating 95% probability that the sampled proportion of the population willing to fly is between 33.2% and 36.4%. After adjusting for age and profession demographics to match the US population, the 95% probability bounds on the proportion willing to fly are 31.35% and 34.15%. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
83.
The Peoples Republic of China, with its great urban populations, is finding it necessary to develop a range of strategies to deal with increasing demand for goods and people movement, increasing motorization and the increasing congestion that results from the increasing travel demand. This paper discusses strategies being adopted in two northern cities, Changchun and Shenyang. Both transit and roadway programs are examined for Changchun. Problems and successes of a new toll road are examined for Shenyang. Sustained infrastructure investment is essential to assure the necessary mobility for economic growth. 相似文献
84.
使用有限元分析以改善重载运输车轴 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
分析了北美铁路货运发生的车轴故障,介绍了使用有限元对F级和K级车轴进行应力分析计算,研究车轴尺寸变化对应力的影响,并提出了改善重载车轴设计的建议. 相似文献
85.
Alan J. Horowitz 《Transportation》2010,37(4):689-703
This paper describes a group of techniques for disaggregating origin–destination tables for travel forecasting that makes explicit use of observed traffic on a network. Five models within the group are presented, each of which uses nonlinear least-squares estimation to obtain row and column factors for splitting trip totals from and to larger geographical areas into smaller ones. The techniques are philosophically similar to Fratar factoring, although the solution method is quite different. The techniques are tested on a full-sized network for Northfield, MN and are found to work effectively. 相似文献
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88.
The dynamics of the coastal ocean along the southeastern coast of Africa is dominated by a strong and intense western boundary current, the Agulhas Current. With a near-uniform, narrow continental shelf and a steep shelf slope that stabilizes this current, the trajectory of the Agulhas exhibits great stability. The only substantial perturbation occurs with the irregular passage of a Natal Pulse, a soliton meander. The initiation of this meander at the Natal Bight is due to a barotropic instability when the intensity of the landward border of the current exceeds a certain threshold value. This may come about with natural fluctuations in the current or with the adsorption of deep-sea eddies onto the current. Under a climate change scenario of altered wind stress curl over the South Indian Ocean it is conceivable that the threshold for the triggering of a Natal Pulse will occur more frequently. This will lead to a situation where the current axis on average lies further offshore. The possible consequences of such a situation on the rainfall of the coast, on the ecology of estuaries and the coastal ocean, and on the socio-economics of the region is discussed. 相似文献
89.
Odd M. Faltinsen Jan Kvålsvold Jan V. Aarsnes 《Journal of Marine Science and Technology》1997,2(2):87-100
The objective is to find slamming-induced local stresses in the steel or aluminum wetdeck of a multihull vessel. This is studied
theoretically by representing the wetdeck as a beam model and accounting for dynamic hydroelastic effects. Two numerical methods
are used, one being a simplified asymptotic solution. Satisfactory agreement between the two methods is reported. Experimental
drop tests of horizontal elastic plates of steel and aluminum are also reported, and the results from the experiments agree
well with the numerical computations. This study reveals, both numerically and experimentally, that slamming-induced local
stresses are strongly influenced by dynamic hydroelastic effects. The maximum bending stresses are insensitive to where waves
hit, the curvature of the waves, and maximum pressures. Measured maximum pressures are very sensitive to external conditions,
and cannot be used as a measure of maximum local bending stresses. A simple procedure for local design stresses due to wetdeck
slamming is outlined. 相似文献
90.