Long-term trends in domestic US passenger travel: the past 110 years and the next 90

Based upon a long-term historical data set of US passenger travel, a model is estimated to project aggregate transportation trends through 2100. One of the two model components projects total mobility (passenger-km traveled) per capita based on per person GDP and the expected utility of travel mode choices (logsum). The second model component has the functional form of a logit model, which assigns the projected travel demand to competing transportation modes. An iterative procedure ensures the average amount of travel time per person to remain at a pre-specified level through modifying the estimated value of time. The outputs from this model can be used as a first-order estimate of a future benchmark against which the effectiveness of various transportation policy measures or the impact of autonomous behavioral change can be assessed.     

Scattering of oblique surface water waves by thin vertical barrier over undulating bed topography

The present study deals with the scattering of oblique surface water waves by small undulation on the bottom in the presence of a thin vertical barrier. Here, three different configurations of vertical barriers are investigated. Perturbation analysis is employed to determine the physical quantities, namely, the reflection and transmission coefficients. In this analysis, many different Boundary Value Problems (BVPs) are obtained out of which the first two bvps are considered. The zeroth order bvp is solved with the aid of eigenfunction expansion method. The first order reflection and transmission coefficients are derived in terms of the integrals by the method of the Green’s integral theorem. The variation of these coefficients is plotted and analyzed for different physical parameters. Furthermore, the energy balance relation, an important relation in the study of water wave scattering, is derived and checked for assuring the correctness of the numerical results for the present problem.     

All minutes are not equal: travel time and the effects of congestion on commute satisfaction in Canadian cities

Despite decades of research, it is unclear under which circumstances travel is most onerous. While studies have found that some individuals derive positive utility from aspects of commuting, others have shown that traffic congestion can entail important time, monetary, and mental stress costs. Moreover, responses to traffic congestion-related stressors differs by individual characteristics. In response, this research captures how exposure to traffic congestion events, the duration of this exposure, and individual trait susceptibility to congestion affect the utility of commuting. Working through the lens of individual satisfaction with the duration of their commute, we show that not every minute of travel is valued the same by car commuters in Canadian cities. Results suggest a complex relationship between travel time, congestion, and individual predisposition to congestion-related stress. While improvements in travel time matter for increasing commute satisfaction, it is reductions in travel in congested conditions that matter most, particularly among those susceptible to congestion-related stressors.     

Enhancing the Efficiencies of Organic Photovoltaic and Organic Light-Emitting Diode Devices by Regular Nano-Wrinkle Patterns

Organic photovoltaic (OPV) cells and organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) are energy harvesting and generation devices that have attracted great attention these years because of their low costs, thin film structures, flexibility and environment-friendly manufacturing processes. For such thin film devices, photon management methods that increase the light absorption of OPV cells and the light extraction from OLEDs are highly desirable. Here, we report the experimental efforts to fabricate geometrically tunable and spontaneously formed nano-wrinkle structures with large areas, and the theoretical results on photon management with the nano-wrinkles.     

Real-time Monitoring of Subsea Gas Pipelines,Offshore Platforms,and Ship Inspection Scores Using an Automatic Identification System

The aim of this research is to develop an algorithm and application that can perform real-time monitoring of the safety operation of offshore platforms and subsea gas pipelines as well as determine the need for ship inspection using data obtained from automatic identification system (AIS). The research also focuses on the integration of shipping database, AIS data, and others to develop a prototype for designing a real-time monitoring system of offshore platforms and pipelines. A simple concept is used in the development of this prototype, which is achieved by using an overlaying map that outlines the coordinates of the offshore platform and subsea gas pipeline with the ship’s coordinates (longitude/latitude) as detected by AIS. Using such information, we can then build an early warning system (EWS) relayed through short message service (SMS), email, or other means when the ship enters the restricted and exclusion zone of platforms and pipelines. The ship inspection system is developed by combining several attributes. Then, decision analysis software is employed to prioritize the vessel’s four attributes, including ship age, ship type, classification, and flag state. Results show that the EWS can increase the safety level of offshore platforms and pipelines, as well as the efficient use of patrol boats in monitoring the safety of the facilities. Meanwhile, ship inspection enables the port to prioritize the ship to be inspected in accordance with the priority ranking inspection score.     

Winter intensification and water mass evolution from yearlong current meters in the Northeast Water Polynya

In the summer of 1992, four current meter moorings were deployed in and later retrieved from the Northeast Water (NEW) polynya on the East Greenland Shelf by the USCGC Polar Sea. The moorings provided hourly temperature, salinity and current data for approximately one year. In the NEW, the circulation intensified and steadiness increased during winter. This intensification was most readily observed at 150 m on the southern side of Westwind trough. The surface layer freshened from summer through December due to ice-melt and freshwater runoff mixing down to at least 75 m. From December through early spring, salinity increased probably due to brine rejected during ice formation. Wintertime events showed water at 75 m with temperatures at the freezing point. Knee Water (KW) was not observed in the current meter data. However, a warmer and fresher than KW watermass was observed at 150 m over the shelf and may result from mixing outside the NEW among KW and the major water masses influencing the region. Polar Water and Atlantic Intermediate Water. Several short-lived events of 3 to 7 days duration perturbed the T-S character at each of the current meters. We believe that these T-S shifts were anticyclonic eddies advecting through the NEW polynya. During such perturbations, T-S values found generally at 75 m were observed at 150 m and T-S values generally at 150 m were observed at 250 m. On the northern side of the Westwind trough, the current meter data provided direct evidence for westward flow into the western extent of the trough at a depth of 250 m. This southwesterly current along the northwest slope of the trough at 250 m is in agreement with the summertime ADCP measurements made in 1992 aboard Polar Sea, and is consistent with the flow inferred from summer hydrography measured from Polarstern in 1993.     

High Speed Stability for Rail Vehicles Considering Varying Conicity and Creep Coefficients

The critical or hunting speed of solid axle rail vehicles is known to be a strong function of primary suspension stiffness, wheel/rail profile geometry (conicity and gravitational stiffness), wheel/rail friction forces (creep coefficients), bogie/carbody inertia properties, and secondary suspension design. This paper deals with the problem of maximizing the critical speed through design of the primary and secondary suspension but with control only over the range of wheel/rail geometry and friction characteristics. For example, the conicity may varie from .05 to .3 and the linear creep coefficients from 25% to 100% of the predicted Kalker values.

It is shown that the maximum critical speed is greatly limited by the wheel/rail geometry and friction variations. It is also shown that, when lateral curving and ride quality are considered, the best design approach is to select an intermediate primary longitudinal stiffness, to limit the lowest value of conicity (e.g. to .1 or .2) by wheel profile redesign, increasing the secondary yaw damping value (yaw relaxation) and optimizing the primary and secondary lateral stiffness.     

Design of an Active Unilateral Brake Control System for Five-Axle Tractor-Semitrailer Based on Sensitivity Analysis

This paper presents the results of a parametric sensitivity analysis of a five-axle tractor-semitrailer vehicle combination using 3-DOF linear yaw/plane model. The first order logarithmic sensitivity functions are derived with respect to several vehicle design parameters. For stabilization of the vehicle's directional behaviour a fairly new control concept called “Active Unilateral Braking Control (AUBC)” acting on the tractor rear wheel's in order to produce a stabilizing yaw torque is investigated. The AUBC system improves not only the directional stability, but also affects the roll dynamics of the vehicle. The sensitivity of the controlled vehicle system with linear quadratic controller (LQR) is also examined, a robust controller design procedure is proposed as a result of the sensitivity analysis. The robustness of this controller in the presence of both internal (including parametric uncertainties, non-linear dynamics) and external disturbances (such as road irregularities and side wind) allows its implementation with confidence with a non-linear vehicle model. The applicability of this control system to a non-linear vehicle model is tested using a 34 DOF, non-linear vehicle model of the tractor-semitrailer combination.     

Transportation policy analysis with a geographic information system: The virtual network of freight transportation in Europe

This paper presents a multi-modal freight transportation model based on a digitized geographic network. A systematic analysis and decomposition of all the transport operations i.e. moving, loading and unloading, transshipping and transiting, leads to the development of a virtual network where each virtual link corresponds to a specific operation, and all transportation modes and means are inter-linked. Software, called NODUS, automatically generates the virtual network so that the model can be conveniently applied to large networks. The analytical structure of the links notation makes it easy to attach specific cost functions to each virtual link. The model is applied to the trans-European freight network of roads, railways and inland waterways for the transportation of wood. Cost functions are built up for each operation by each mode/means combination. A detailed point-to-point origin-destination matrix, calibrated on Eurostat statistics, is generated by a Monte-Carlo technique. Then, the total transportation cost is minimized with respect to the choices of routes, modes and means. This provides estimations of transportation services demands as well as modal splits, to the extent that the two hypotheses of demand based on generalized cost minimization and market contestability are accepted. A sensitivity analysis on the relative road cost is made, which provides measures of arc-elasticities.     

A 3D, finite element model for baroclinic circulation on the Vancouver Island continental shelf

This paper describes the development and application of a 3-dimensional model of the barotropic and baroclinic circulation on the continental shelf west of Vancouver Island, Canada. A previous study with a 2D barotropic model and field data revealed that several tidal constituents have a significant baroclinic component (the K1 in particular). Thus we embarked on another study with a 3D model to study the baroclinic effects on the residual and several selected tidal constituents.The 3D model uses a harmonic expansion in time and a finite element discretization in space. All nonlinear terms are retained, including quadratic bottom stress, advection and wave transport (continuity nonlinearity). The equations are solved as a global and a local problem, where the global problem is the solution of the wave equation formulation of the shallow water equations, and the local problem is the solution of the momentum equation for the vertical velocity profile. These equations are coupled to the advection-diffusion equation for density so that density gradient forcing is included in the momentum equations. However, the study presented here describes diagnostic calculations for the baroclinic residual circulation only.The model is sufficiently efficient that it encourages sensitivity testing with a large number of model runs. In this sense, the model is akin to an extension of analytical solutions to the domain of irregular geometry and bottom topography where this parameter space can be explored in some detail.In particular, the consequences of the sigma coordinate system used by the model are explored. Test cases using an idealized representation of the continental shelf, shelf break and shelf slope, lead to an estimation of the velocity errors caused by interpolation errors inherent in the sigma coordinate system. On the basis of these estimates, the computational grid used in the 2D model is found to have inadequate resolution. Thus a new grid is generated with increased accuracy in the region of the shelf break. However, even with increased resolution, spurious baroclinic circulation seaward of the shelf break and in the vicinity of Juan de Fuca canyon remained a significant problem when the pressure gradient terms were evaluated using the σ coordinate system and using a realistic density profile.With the new grid, diagnostic calculations of the barotropic and baroclinic residual circulation are performed using forcing from the observed σ_t (density) field and from the gradient of this field.